Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

If you live in Ohio, a good day to tune in to Wine with Dewine. We will get our first concrete. details about things opening.

I'll watch that over the DeSantis show down here.

https://ohiochannel.org/

It's a Summer Ale kind of day here in Ohio.

I know many are having a harder time than others (understandable due to loosing their job, hating their spouse, being sick, annoyed by their kids or whatever else...)... But fortunately I've seen little to no 'negatives' to our day-to-day. If anything, it's pretty awesome working from home and hanging with my 4-legged coworker all day until the girlfriend gets home from being 'essential'... Talking with coworkers, everybody is doing well and in good spirits. Everybody is enjoying the time at home... Sounds like at our company, even though Ohio appears to be reopening next week (will be confirmed today I guess), they will be keeping most people home in May, unless you absolutely need to go in. So I'm excited for that.

My home brewery and taproom is up and running, so my 4 beers on tap continue to flow! So I fortunately still have my own bar/taproom/hangout open whenever we want. Plenty of grain, hops and yeast to brew probably 50+ gallons of beer with a few in the pipeline already. Have not had friends over the past few weeks of course being the only difference, but that will likely end soon here. With my two smokers pumping out delicious BBQ each week, have been drinking/eating like a king! Have been baking breads and such for a few months now, before it was the "cool" thing to do during lockdown, but I will admit my skills have gotten pretty stellar there, too.

Grocery, Hardware and whatever other stores continue to be open as usual for our needs. Have been limiting our trips out of course, but otherwise business as usual. The metroparks are open for hiking and taking the dog, gardening/landscaping and plenty of other projects. Our big hospital systems are doing fine (Cleveland Clinic, Metro and University Hospitals) with plenty of beds and actually sending surplus staff elsewhere, such as NYC, to help out as needed.

Four of my immediate neighbors are first responders (two fire, two Police/Detective), one of which actually had COVID confirmed and healed up with nothing more than a day in bed. Neighbors decorated his house overnight in biohazard tape, which was hilarious. Somebody down the street called the health department concerned in which they had to tell them they don't tape someones house for having COVID... Funny stuff.

It's been good times, here in CLE, at least. Things feel 'normal' for the most part, aside from the endless COVID news you can't avoid.

Dog is bothering me, time to burn some energy out of this pup!

Lord Gonchar said:
Because NYC and Italy are scary outliers.

Yes... now ask yourself why. What led to the different outcomes? This is what I'm trying (apparently poorly) to point out. If one place has an epic outbreak and another doesn't, there's probably a way to account for the difference. Reacting earlier, consistently and aggressively is the difference. The wide distance between the outcomes is not reason to dismiss the reaction, it's the reason to show that the reaction works and is an appropriate way to limit the spread.

Is there an economic and psychological cost to it? Yes, obviously. No one wants this. We'd all like a sliding scale to understand where the balance point is, but as of right now, there aren't geographically many places that fall into a genuine middle ground (states are too large a unit).

But thank you at least for not going down the "it's just the flu" route. I may disagree with some of you, but at least you're not those people.

It's not the flu. It's a hoax from the Democrats to rig the election.

Vater said:

This is interesting.

Edit: Heres the whole thing.

This guy is so misleading with the math it's actually quite comical. He is taking positive test rates from suspected cases of Covid-19 and extrapolating it to the entire population. It doesn't work that way. These are not random samples.

Sweden has 50% more deaths that California yet California has 4 times the population. That's a huge difference.

He claims Norway has an infection rate of 4.9% with a population of 5.5 million. Then claims that they have 1.3 million cases. He is only off by a million.

Ohio is basically opening back up...

May 4th is Construction/Businesses/Offices to reopen.
May 12th is Consumer/Retail/Services to reopen.

Of course, plenty of requirements including wearing masks, distancing, no meetings and daily disinfection procedures of desks, etc... Asking companies to keep those working from home if at all possible.

Stay at home is still in effect, although slightly modified.

Lord Gonchar said:

Because NYC and Italy are scary outliers.

A full 1/3rd of the COVID-19 deaths so far can be attributed to the 300 sq mile area on the eastern seaboard known as NYC. It's a perfect storm of "hit exceptionally hard" meeting "unprepared."

Outliers? I don't think so.

Unprepared, very much so. Everybody was.

Hit exceptionally hard.... No. NYC screwed by density so manifested early in an unregulated environment. Just the biggest earliest example of uncontained spread.

The starting markets before we successfully locked it down.

An example of what happens without a well formulated plan.

For everyone arguing regionalized opening... How the hell does that work without severely enforced local domestic travel restrictions? Enough people move around regularly to seed the world.

These light CDC guidelines about self quaranting while moving around are not beginning enforced. I see the scaled reopening by type. Not by region. And we're not ready for either until you have massive quick turnaround on testing and trace infrastructure (or massive rollout of vaccine/treatment)

Opening local restaurants with social distancing may be cool, but opening a casino in Vegas, the Georgia Aquarium, Indiana Beach or WDW yields the same issue. NY and Italy aren't an outlier by environment, just timing.

If things go well perhaps we'll be riding Orion by the 4th of July

There's a second wave of infection coming. Think about the leading indicators of infection driving the initial restrictions, and now we're suggesting opening everything up when the infection rates are exponentially higher than they were in the leading indicators time period. That's some crazy math.

On the plus side, this is reason to be cautiously optimistic:

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead https://nyti.ms/3cWsEf9

Jeff said:

There's a second wave of infection coming.

That's your opinion, of course. We shall see how it plays out in reality.

And no matter when we reopen, won't we have to deal with this second wave? Might as well do it now.

Gov. DeWine said today:

"What we put together is a plan based on all the information we have about how dangerous COVID-19 is - but we also know it's dangerous to not have people working. There are consequences there too. We have to balance. As long as we aren't seeing numbers that are terribly alarming, we'll be able to move down that pathway. We are losing Ohioans every week, and that will probably continue - but what we don't want to see is a big spike."

"With any decision, there is a risk. What we did today is a risk. Doing nothing is a risk. With a decision like this, there is no easy decision - we have to balance. We will be criticized by those who think we shouldn't open up. We'll be criticized by those who think we didn't open up enough. I understand both arguments, but I think we found the sweet spot."

Boy, this went exactly where some of us suggested it would well over a month ago - finding the sweet spot, dialing it in, discovering the balance between lives and normality that makes the most sense and figuring out how much risk is acceptable.

I think the terms and phrases used by DeWine are interesting. In a nutshell, we're trying to find a better place on the slider.

SteveWoA said:

That's your opinion, of course. We shall see how it plays out in reality.

Would this be discussed over one of your brews?

I brewed an Apple Cinnamon beer yesterday. It was disastrous. My second 'all grain kit' and the gravity read 1.013 instead of 1.040 before boil. So I boiled it down an additional hour and a half to get it closer before doing the hops.

I decided to name my brew Apple 0,13. If anyone needs clarification, I'll be happy to answer.

Anyways... back to the topic. Here's a preliminary study talking about deaths from things that are not COVID-19 related, rose in the first few weeks of the epidemic awareness ramping up here in the U.S. Most likely those who needed medical attention, didn't seek it in fear of the virus.

SteveWoA said:

Jeff said:

There's a second wave of infection coming.

That's your opinion, of course. We shall see how it plays out in reality.

That's not my opinion at all. It's the observation of everyone modeling the outbreak, because one of the inputs is the effect of social distancing efforts. Absent other reduction of risk factors, the infection rate goes up.

HeyIsntThatRob? said:

I brewed an Apple Cinnamon beer yesterday. It was disastrous. My second 'all grain kit' and the gravity read 1.013 instead of 1.040 before boil. So I boiled it down an additional hour and a half to get it closer before doing the hops.

I decided to name my brew Apple 0,13. If anyone needs clarification, I'll be happy to answer.

Ouch, sounds like your grain may have been been badly milled or you were wayyy out on your mash temps.

I just brewed up a stout last week which I will tap within the next two weeks. All fermented out and just in the conditioning phase.

Currently on tap is a Munich Helles, Kveik IPA, Festbier and a Witbier. Plan to brew up a Kolsch next week (Batch 87 I think?). Got to get the pipeline filled back up as it got depleted during our home remodel, in which I wasn't brewing.

Hope your beer was salvageable! What was your final OG on it? 1.030ish?

BrettV said:

And no matter when we reopen, won't we have to deal with this second wave? Might as well do it now.

We will reopen, the people that haven't gotten infected will probably start to. We will either accept it or the government will go ZOMG!! we need to quarantine everyone again. The GP will say piss off, if it didn't work the first time, why bother to do it again. Arguments will ensue, more protesting will happen, trump will say things, people will say hes a fool.

Coasterbuzz will debate this fiercely, lots of random math will be thrown around, Jeff will stay home again, Gonch and I will try and reason against staying home, poop jokes will be made, Steve will brew some more beer.

The cycle will continue.

At least that's my opinion and prediction, results may vary.

Sounds more like a hypothesis to me.

Doesn't matter. We're all wrong anyway.