Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

I'm not in any position to declare that the models projecting a better result indicate that we overdid anything. I'd be more inclined to look at it as a win. Regardless of how things end up playing out, though, I think some post-pandemic investigation into whether or not we overdid things absolutely should happen simply because it's to our benefit to see if being more lenient on certain things would have been feasible. Anything that points us toward any potential solution that would have saved lives with a lighter economic impact is worth pursuing.

I also think that the models/projections should be analyzed heavily as well. I'm not saying for sure that we did, but what if we did get it wrong? Models and projections are by nature imperfect, and there's a great deal of value in looking at them on the back end to see what went into them that led them to any potential incorrect assumptions. Again, though, hopefully the better-than-expected numbers we're seeing now are more attributable to the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

Given a time machine, I think that going back and saying that we'll end up at x, which is better than y, because of the measures implemented might actually have resulted in there being more buy-in. I remember expressing disappointment that even with a three-month shutdown, we'd still have over 24k deaths, but with the benefit of hindsight, I'm glad to see that the numbers are dropping from what was expected. That's encouraging, and I would hope that if one could go back in time with that information, it would have driven the more hesitant states, or the federal government itself, to kick things in faster and bring the number down even farther.

With all of that said, though, my concerns now shift to the back end of things. The current policies of social distancing, businesses closing or running at dramatically reduced capacity, etc., are going to have to end at some point, and what happens then? I ask this because saying that this is the way things have to be cannot be applied indefinitely, or even in any sort of long term. I don't want to risk a second pandemic, but seeing the unemployment numbers now, numbers which dwarf the numbers of those infected by this, tells me that at some point in the next few months, we're going to have to start taking some risks (perhaps the happy-medium solutions that have been proposed). The numbers are staggering and are continuing to climb, and there will, not possibly, come a point where that is going to outweigh the benefits of extending closures of the current magnitude, at least in the eyes of many. There will be enough people whose savings are gone and whose healthcare is lost that will decide it just isn't worth it anymore and are going to push hard enough to get restrictions lifted assuming the government doesn't lift them itself. I don't want things to happen prematurely, believe me, but extending current measures indefinitely will, at some point, lead to a collapse I don't want to think about, and I would hope people realize that.

To use the six-month number from earlier, even I worry that may be too long. Look at where we are right now and it has only been about a month. Now, I suppose it's possible that many furloughs and layoffs are based on assumptions about being closed for extended periods and that these aren't all reactionary to the one month things have already been shuttered, in which case I think that things can stay closed longer than I'd currently expect, but six months seems like an awfully long time. How far into the future that point lies is up for debate, but I don't see how things can continue as they are for that long without risking a total economic collapse.

For unemployment numbers, I used this resource: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/09/coronavirus-unemployment-c...ers-176794

Cargo Shorts said:

One reason and we are find this out is we do not have the telecommunications infrastructure for everyone to work from home or educate. At least in many areas and certainly those that live in more rural areas. Since this has started my cable internet has been very spotty and it can crawl anytime of day.

True, although I work in video telecommunications and live in rural WV with godawful cellular internet averaging 1.5-2.5Mbps download speeds, and do video calls daily. They're far from great quality, but it's possible.

Thankfully, thanks to my badgering of Comcast Business over the last couple weeks, I just got confirmation today that they will be doing construction to install cable to my house on their dime.

I like getting on here because you guys always bring up good points from completely different points of view; it's a good way to get a full take on a subject. But the best thing happens when I'm reminded I need to watch something like Billy Madison. Thank you for that.

I had the idea when I read about the dog poop; 2 replies later someone already posted it. Genius!

HeyIsntThatRob? said:

As far as the context of the word 'hysteria' being used, you guys are either failing to read or flat out ignore the rest of my statement about uncertainty is becoming less of a thing.

Really? How do we reopen theme parks? How do we fend off secondary waves of infection?

We're in a better place from the angle of some reasonable level of winning against the spread of infection, but uncertainty about how to move forward is every bit as bad as it has been for the last month.

This is what I mean by surrendering your freedoms, this might be proposed as a stopgap but then it will transition into we need to continue to ensure your safety.

Recovery Plans

So you've not had any reduction in freedom, and it's another slippery slope concern.

Fauci: Administration discussing coronavirus immunity certificates

So here's confirmation on some of what is being considered (which is the point of the post here), but I'd also like to semi-facetiously add some snarky comment about the government asking "to see your papers"

And then someone gets to cite driver's licenses, or immunizations for school entry and things like that.

And then someone else gets to point out that those are already steps along the line from true freedom to government overlords and not necessary to daily life or findamental freedoms.

Then we get to roll our eyes at the suggestion of a slippery slope or incremental change at the moment equating to larger change over time.

And then someone makes a poop joke.

And then someone harps on some tiny detail in a much larger post, completely ignoring the overall tone to pick apart some piece of nothing that doesn't matter.

And a voice from the back yells, "'Merica!"

And then I get pissed because I realize I keep opening this thread when I've promised myself countless times that I wouldn't.

Jeff said:

So you've not had any reduction in freedom, and it's another slippery slope concern.

It has happened before, and it could very well happen again.

https://www.wired.com/2011/09/911-surveillance/

Do we really want to get to the point where we have to show papers in order to conduct commerce?

Apparently Holiday has pushed back their opening until June. I'm sure other parks will soon follow.

I've had a reduction in freedom. My place of worship has shut down because the government will threaten them as they have others, if they don't. Rules have changed here. People do get arrested for congregating publicly. That's a reduction in freedom.

I just got an email from UO that says they will not open until 6/1 at the earliest.

This is what I was getting at before.... What’s more freedom restricting: Tracing or having everything (and I’m talking more broadly then the most problematic theme parks) continued to be shut down? The only 3rd option is the hopeful treatment/vaccine with an unknown indefinite timetable. Meanwhile Google/Apple seem to be moving pretty fast on the tracing infrastructure (cause they were already doing it privately).

I’m classified essential and very precautiously move around an area that’s really bad, only in the necessary capacity for work. I came in a situation yesterday where I came in potential contact with a uniformed also essential employee that appeared unwell and displaying disturbing visual symptoms that were very suspect of this virus. I extricated myself as quickly as possible from the situation with questions if I was potentially exposed. I made a call into the employment org of that employee (as well as my own) and am now monitoring myself.

This person shouldn’t of been working, they obviously knew they were sick. (and before you jump down my throat, this specific instance was a strongly unionized employee, not someone that was choosing the right thing or a paycheck). I don’t know the backstory, but it reinforces my belief that people even in these times cannot be trusted to make the correct decisions. Going to work sick is too ingrained in our culture. Which doesn’t even approach the problem of finding the asymptomatic, when you can’t stop the 20% most obvious percent.

So I guess the only way is going to be ground everything til treatment. My point is, our society doesn’t have the discipline and regard to do right on their own accord. That makes an argument for trace, if you want the world back.

I'm not saying I am crazy for the idea. I never bought an Echo for same reason. But if it's literally the only option vs. more pain vs. more closure. Like the Rider point out, we've been doing the trace to ourselves for a decade anyway.

The three options you present aren't the only three. There are other options, including opening things up, at least to some degree, and accepting the fact that some people will still get it. Ideally, though, it would be through some sort of "controlled spread" methodology so as to avoid having things get as terrible as they potentially could have been this time around. Not sure exactly how it would work, but I would at least be curious as to its feasibility.

So to recap, we don't want widespread testing, we don't want surveillance, and we don't want the government to restrict our normal activities such as shopping or going to church.

But we also want the government to stop the spread of the disease, stabilize the economy and to send us our stimulus check.

Ok.

I would love widespread testing. I just don’t want to have to do it over and over again to be able to engage in commerce. I do hope that an antibody test comes out and that I, as an employee who is considered essential, could have that test and see if I’ve ever had it, though. Antibody tests would be awesome.

You know what's really restrictive? Getting a disease that you can easily spread to your family, friends, coworkers and congregation and then watching 1% of them die.

Sometimes, as a part of a functional society, you have to suck it up and do things you don't like.

And the slippery slope things about liberty drive me nuts. Remember the good old days, when there were slaves and women couldn't vote and some people had to sit on the back of the bus? That was pretty great freedom, right?

Stop with the strawman arguments. We don't have slaves and all citizens can vote and no one is forced to sit in the back of the bus. I don't know why you keep bringing it up when it has nothing to do with anything. No one is saying that these things should be brought back.

I think the only people that want slavery brought back are the ones that keep bringing it up. Apparently, they miss the good old days.

Remember when we didn’t have a supreme court that could potentially take away the rights and liberties we have been given and fought for? Or that did take away the rights of people to safely vote at a later date and not put themselves in danger?

Just sayin...

Just a couple comments;

1) Next week Dewine is going to discuss the "plan for return to normalization" in Ohio...at least first steps. Will it detail everything? No...but it will be the first time we have heard any earnest steps that can be taken to re-opening anything.

2) I'm really curious to see what the numbers on more widespread testing for antibodies says about our population. You don't need to sample everyone, just a large enough representative sample. No, you cannot tell "when" those antibodies developed, just if they have. I would line up in a heartbeat to take a blood test to see if I have actually had it or not. One of the steps in the "variable chain" will be figuring out (besides the obvious) what makes one (relatively) healthy 40-year old more resilient than another (relatively) healthy 40-year old.

For example; what if one (and mind you, I'm saying one) of the factors related to the numbers being so spectacular in Ohio is that more of us than we know has actually successfully contracted it and simply went ultra-mild to asymptomatic?

And no, this is not to downplay the impact of social distancing and Ohio being aggressive in its measures. If there is a number I wish we could see now, it's the percentage of us who have built up immunity without even knowing it. Starting next week, Ohio is going to be including these people in their "projected numbers" to some degree.

Jeff said:

And the slippery slope things about liberty drive me nuts. Remember the good old days, when there were slaves and women couldn't vote and some people had to sit on the back of the bus? That was pretty great freedom, right?

What does this have anything to do with the present? I am against restriction of freedoms. We addressed slavery, voting, and such decades ago. Those things were restrictive of freedoms, they are dead. I am not supporting further restrictions.

The off-season for parks can get a little rough around here. And that's with (as many are quick to point out) many people who live near/visit parks that are open year round. This thread gives a glimpse of what the place would be like with a worldwide off-season. To quote a certain poster here: Sucks.