Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

SteveWoA said:

Hope your beer was salvageable! What was your final OG on it? 1.030ish?

I was able to get it up to 1.048. The kit was calling for 1.052. I'll take it.

A couple of months ago I brewed my first all grain kit, a Vanilla Porter and it turned out great. Granted the all grain kits I bought were almost a year old because I was pretty timid about doing an all grain batch and just kept putting it off. Sounds like I waited too long to use this kit.

My brother in law is who I consult with on all things brewing and he's thinking the grain was probably too old.

BrettV said:

I think I'm going to go through this thread and create my own drinking game where I take a shot every time Jeff mentions the refrigerated trucks.

If you're looking to get drunk "slider" might get you there quicker.

What we really need is a set of Official CoasterBuzz Coronavirus Thread Bingo Cards

If the card has 25 squares and the middle is free, we have 24 spots to fill. Go!

Refrigerated Trucks
Slider

I'm gonna add "Peer Reviewed"

Do you not understand what exponential means?

I'll add "Expert"

Science

Math

"Wrong"

Cruise - or is that too far back in this thread?

Flatten the curve people.

"Sucks"

Slippery Slope

Strawman

R0

Millenniumrider post over 250 words

Log-Scale Graph

"Dead people suck at spending money" -or the other popular variant- "Dead people can't participate in the economy"

Jeff is not wrong in that the fundamentals haven't changed from mid-March for the most part. The number of active cases is orders of magnitude larger. The amount of health care available is not significantly greater. The amount of testing is scaling up, but still not a significantly larger proportion of the need. We still have no contact tracing. We don't have noticeably better treatments or potential vaccines. The transmission and mortality rates are still in the same neighborhood as estimated (cue discussion on the variety of non-peer-reviewed (bingo!) studies which we have discussed) . If we do open back up today, how are we in a better position than if we had just stayed open in March?

As far as I can tell, the one main thing that has changed is that we've seen the power that social distancing and shelter in place do have. We have mostly avoided the worst case scenario and possibly even the median scenario through our actions and if it looks like we're heading in bad directions, we have a tool to "probably (estimates of what this means vary)" get back on the right track.

Whether having that in your back pocket is reason enough to loosen some restrictions is the salient question, as far as I can tell, because unless I'm missing something, pretty much everything else is the same place it was in mid-March.

Edit: I suppose one could argue that the good outcomes we're seeing are because the virus was never a grave threat to millions rather than that social distancing and shelter in place actually worked much better than we thought. I'd be interested in seeing evidence for that position.

ApolloAndy said:

If we do open back up today, how are we in a better position than if we had just stayed open in March?

We're not. Which means decisions are being made.

But why? That's what's intriguing. What's motivating these 'openings'?

Looking forward, what will be considered a success and what will be an "I told you so" moment? How big (or small) does the next wave have to be to say, "This was a good idea" or "This was a bad idea" and where do we put the credit for that? On our actions or the reality of the virus?

Worst of all, why do I feel like all of the same conversations and arguments will still be in play?

It's the "who killed Geauga Lake" of this decade. If you think the park should have stayed open you are wrong. Attendance numbers don't lie just like science doesn't lie. The money they were losing with such small crowds didn't care about your feelings or opinion, just like the virus doesn't care. Starring Dick Kinzel as Donald Trump, Bill Spehn as Dr. Fauci, White House reporters demanding answers from the government will be played by angry ACErs demanding answers at the auction, and the state of Georgia will be played by the Six Flags years.

And the old days we can't go back to is the era when Funtime owned the park and SeaWorld drew people in.

So we're all in agreement... We don't know ****.

Here's a long read about the differences in the way that Seattle and New York reacted. The TL;DR is that clear and consistent communication and early action are the difference between outcomes. I think you could probably compare New Zealand and the US in the same way.

Epidemiology is a science of possibilities and persuasion, not of certainties or hard proof. “Being approximately right most of the time is better than being precisely right occasionally,” the Scottish epidemiologist John Cowden wrote, in 2010. “You can only be sure when to act in retrospect.” Epidemiologists must persuade people to upend their lives—to forgo travel and socializing, to submit themselves to blood draws and immunization shots—even when there’s scant evidence that they’re directly at risk.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-...ks-did-not

https://www.studyfinds.org/coronavirus-72-of-locked-down-americans-...-mid-june/