Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

I’ll admit it. I didn’t think we would go this far. When the NBA, NHL, and NCAA cancel it’s kind of hard to not follow.

No way I would have guessed any of this 48 hours ago

I agree. Seems like the NBA player with the virus with the real catalyst. The NCAA had announced a hour or so earlier that the March Madness games would be played without fans in the arenas. The NBA was going that direction as well. Then the NBA player has the virus and the NBA pretty much had to stop in its tracks. So much cascaded after that.

CreditWh0re said:

So we’re within weeks of BGW and KD opening for the season. Most business travel is grinding to a halt as I type. Anyone want to bet now on if they open as scheduled? 2021 capital plans are being re-visited I’m sure.

We’re about to see a wholesale change in the way businesses operate in the U.S. you’re going to hear the term “Social Distancing” a lot in the next few weeks.

When you wrote this six days ago I thought this was beyond silly. Six days later I owe you an apology. I know Cedar Fair released their letter today about how they plan to open as scheduled, but that was before Disney and Universal made their announcement. Never, ever would have guessed this.

Ohio Department of Health Director estimates that at least 1% of Ohio residents have the virus. So over 100,000 people. Five confirmed cases in the state. Definitely a disconnect that is hard to fathom. There is talk that 70 to 150 million people in the US could become infected. Also staggering.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus

Disney World is closing.

Six Flags is closing / delaying opening 10 of their parks through the end of March.

Carowinds is postponing opening day until April 3rd.

Looks like CreditWh0re was on to something.

It is interesting to read this discussion from the beginning to see how people's outlook on this has changed in the span of a few weeks.

Shades said:

It is interesting to read this discussion from the beginning to see how people's outlook on this has changed in the span of a few weeks.

Lord Gonchar said a while back:

Hell, I think America is over-reacting.

My opinion hasn't changed...much.

Let me try to explain because I know how this sounds.

If we have an imaginary slider with "Disruption" on one side and "Death" on the other, it is my personal feeling that we decided to slide it too far to the "disruption" side. Everyone has a line or place they'd move the knob to on the imaginary Risk/Reward slider.

Yes, I've seen the chart. Yes, I understand social distancing. Yes, I get the idea that it's about slowing, not necessarily preventing, the spread (that's what she said).

I understand. I'm also apparently more willing to accept risk than most.

My heart, my head and the facts say three different things. I can't change how I feel - even if the science says I'm likely incorrect - and I feel like we're all a bunch of scared little bitchass pussies willing to disrupt everything for a modicrum of feeling safe.

(Please don't take that quote out of context and try to look all big and smart in your disagreeing replies - I'm Gonch, you're not.)

With that said, I reluctantly accept that maybe there's a line that has been crossed and the actions we're taking aren't entirely unnecessary. (that's me giving...take it)

But where that line sits is pretty important. When do we decide it's not worth the death and shut down everything, cost people their livelyhoods, force populations inside and so forth - you know, generally get told to sit down, shut up and obey because some authority has deemed the risk is too great for me to take? And when is the loss acceptable?

Sure you have to balance the results of the disruption with the results of the death. How much disruption is worth how many lives? That's all this decision is and I happen to believe we were way too willing to immediately slide the button 100% all the way to the "Disruption" side far too easily - especially for what we may end up with in return.

How much disruption are you willing to allow and how many lives have to be saved to be worth it?

It's something to think about.

Shades said:

It is interesting to read this discussion from the beginning to see how people's outlook on this has changed in the span of a few weeks.

Mine certainly has. Watching Italy bungle this was the tipping point for me. For example:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/Could-San...130780.php

Texas Thrillseeker #1 said:

Jeff said:

We cancelled our cruise tomorrow, with Disney's generous and temporary policy. I was not worried about my safety on a half-empty ship going only to their private island, I was worried about the completely arbitrary and unclear policy of the federal government's travel restrictions. On one hand, you've got President Dip**** saying he doesn't want a ship with Americans docking in California because it'll skew the infection numbers, and on the other hand, you have a travel ban to Europe that excludes the busiest travel hub of Europe, London. None of these decisions are science based.

Actually, if things don't get better soon, London may find itself included in the travel ban.

Looks like I was right.

I was trying to think of something witty and funny to say to combat my Debbie Downer image, but yeah, that's not happening.

Saturday Early Evening and proof that there's no God because Trump's test came back negative. I guess that's actually good since he was touching, TOUCHING, every member of the health task force in the Rose Garden last week.

That being said, there appears to be another (3rd) Govt deal for Industries hardest hit by the current shutdown. Amazingly enough, most of them in the Travel, Leisure, Entertainment sector. The U.S. just doesn't have a mechanism to help the workers though, and that's going to be readily apparent very soon.

Don't be fooled by any bounce you may see in the markets this past Friday and this coming Monday. Most schools are now closed, anything in the travel/entertainment industry that actually involves attendance or a live audience is closed, and air travel is so severely reduced that Delta is slashing 40% of its capacity. Read that number again. That's $Billions in plane rentals sitting idle. Cruiselines have never had this type of shock.

Most importantly there is a huge section of this country that will be out of work starting next Friday, if not already. Car rentals, airport workers (think everything but TSA types), hotel workers as demand drops and hours get cut immediately, restaurants as people stay home for the short term. This is an immediate drop into recession and will absolutely crush those on the lower end of the economic spectrum. It's not beyond reason to think worse than 2008. The markets will fluctuate up and down, but we are heading for dark economic times and it will hit quickly. Assuming we somehow get past the infection, this shock to the economy will be brutal.

Word of investment warning: Do NOT be fooled by the dividend rate for FUN at the current stock price. With their parks being closed, there will be no cash generation, and that dividend could be cut/suspended. They just went ex-dividend in early March, so they've got slightly less than 3 months before the next one. Every company will be in cash hoarding mode, and I can not see any scenario where that dividend stays at its current level (personally I'm counting on it being zero, but that's my extreme position). As soon as that dividend gets cut/suspended, that will drive further downward pressure on that stock. Keep that in mind if you're thinking about investing in FUN.

Whether we dive into Dystopia like Gonch fears is a different discussion.

Be safe, and wash your damn hands

The "willingness to comply" slider that Gonch talks about shouldn't be about feelings. What made it clear for me was looking at the actions of Europe, especially Italy, and comparing to Hong Kong and Taiwan. The willingness to react early is the reason why those countries are nearing the backend, and Europe has a long way to go. With such poor testing, we don't know where we sit, but it's likely closer to Europe.

There is something in human nature which seems to make "easy" lessons difficult to learn. The countries that are getting the most credit for doing the best job (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) had prior issues with another epidemic situation (SARS often the issue) in which they were not prepared, took the wrong steps, etc. Those countries learned the hard way. Countries without that experience (at least in recent times) have tended to do worse with Covid-19. Learning lessons the "easy" way (from countries who learned them the hard way) seems the exception. But I think we see that is true in other areas of life (that don't involve governments which I think are more prone to such approaches).

Lotta smart people on this forum. I’d love to hear everyone’s theories on why people cleared the shelves of toilet paper.

I’m serious.

The prevailing theory in the NYT piece about it is that stocking a large item like that gives people a sense of control. Also, units moved aren't that high, but it's a large item, so it appears big when missing. Also, its size is why no one keeps too much stock. Large, low margin things suck to keep around from a cost perspective, which is also why the supply is usually measured in weeks and not months. But manufacturers will catch up easily.

Man, the math and science around this continues to boggle my mind. We really are more at risk by everyone else's behavior than our own. Don't be Patient 31. Stay the **** home!

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B...index.html

Bakeman31092 said:

Lotta smart people on this forum. I’d love to hear everyone’s theories on why people cleared the shelves of toilet paper.

I'm with Jeff on this; it's the illusion of control plus a bit of crowd panic. Once you hear someone else is stockpiling, you think maybe you should too without really *thinking* about it.

Jeff said:

Man, the math and science around this continues to boggle my mind. We really are more at risk by everyone else's behavior than our own. Don't be Patient 31. Stay the **** home!

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B...index.html

That's the crazy part. At the school I work at I probably have close contact (6 feet or less) with somewhere between 200-400 people a day. Most of those people are under 18 and potential asymptomatic vectors. And I'm on the low end.

From a parallel thread...

ApolloAndy said:

Look, there is a possible point to be made that the economic and social disruption is not worth the extra 100,000 or 1,000,000 lives or whatever. I don't agree but one could make that point.

But at some level you do agree with it, we all do. Take a look at influenza. Yes, I know Corona is not the flue, but look at the CDC numbers from the past several years.

2010/11 = 32,000 dead 2011/12 = 12,000 2012/13 = 43,000 2013/14 = 38,000 2014/15 = 51,000 2015/16 = 23,000 2016/17 = 38,000 2017/18 = 61,000 (estimated)

Apparently those folks were not worth the eco/social disruption. We don't think twice about taking the measures for the flue that we are with Corona. Why are those deaths treated so lightly?

Yes there is a vaccine for influenza, but according to the CDC, it is estimated that the vaccine reduces the risk between 40-60%. That means the vaccine helps but does not guarantee health. In round numbers, the vaccine gives you a 50/50 chance of not getting the flu, which means even with the vaccine thousands are going to die.

Will this pandemic mean that we look at the flue with a different perspective from now on?