Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

A decision was made.

Voting (or following the law as written) is more important than the risk posed by people doing the very thing (gathering in public places and touching the same devices repeatedly) that is most dangerous to be doing right now.

Seriously, if you're gonna give me crap for some of my takes on the whole Coronavirus situation, but justify this decision as sensible in any way, then I don't even know what to say.

(Kevin posted while I was replying to Jeff)

Oddly, I'm with DeWine on this. Either it's important to socially distance or it's not.

It all goes back to some of my original ideas - where and when we choose to draw those lines is such a bizarre thing.

The only decision that was made was whether or not to follow the law. The decision to do so doesn't mean that social distancing is invalid. It doesn't mean the decision is sensible. It's a weakness in government that we're glad to have 99.99% of the time. It's also fixable... the legislature could presumably change the law is it isn't written into the state constitution. (This is all me guessing... I don't know what the basis is for the court's decision is.)

Looks like DeWine may have found a way around it:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=571089703616667&id=326721818053458

I have my own Kevin Bacon Covid-19 story.

I've been pretty vocal about my frustration with people not taking this seriously, and now I have my anecdote. There are three factors that came into focus for me, not really until late last week, and they're why I'm alarmed:

1. The R0 factor: This is the measurement of how easily a disease spreads. In simple terms, you're looking at exponents, so just two links away from you exposing others, 9 people have it. With the flu, it would be 3. Three links, it's 30, but only 5 with flu. Four generations in, you're already to 100, but only 11 with flu. Doesn't take long to get to the hundreds of thousands.

2. The mortality rate is 10x the flu.

3. The latency. This is the time between infection and symptoms, during which time you could be spreading the disease. This is the thing that scares the **** out of me, because when combined with the other two factors, it can get out of control fast.

You've been close to it already and might not know it.

Last weekend I met up briefly with a friend from Texas at Universal Orlando. We kept it to fist bumps. We were already in a high risk place even if it didn't seem like it at the time, but two days later he was presenting at a conference with a friend who has since tested positive. He's ok so far, but as he put it, he may not have gotten on the plane home if he knew.

My point is that had I met him 48 hours later, I might have been exposed. The next day I went bowling, and went out for a burrito on Tuesday. See math above... my seemingly harmless behavior could have been unknowingly harmful to others.

That's the weird thing... we need to come together by staying apart. Even in our neighborhood, we have people depending on us, well over 70, or cancer patients, or kids with seriously compromised immune systems. It's no joke. You aren't being overcautious by staying home. Your might be on spring break, but play dates aren't a good idea for a couple of weeks.

The science is pretty clear. The frustration and financial impact (especially in Central Florida) are real, but the science doesn't care. We have little choice but to roll with it. We can see what not taking it seriously enough looks like, because of Europe. If the hospitals get overwhelmed, the fatality rate will rise. That's the math.

Stay safe my friends.

Science doesn't care because science doesn't make decisions, it presents facts (or truths).

Despite the same science applying to all of us, we still have to choose how to react.

I went to the grocery today and it was a fool’s errand. The shelves were practically empty, and there I was amongst the masses anyway. I got a few useful things, got out of there, and all I could think about on the drive home is that my 14 days just started over. Again.
I have an overwhelming feeling of helplessness. Yes, how we choose to react is everything. But in spite of my good intentions, I may have already made the gravest mistake of my life without knowing and there’s not one damn thing to tell me if I have or not. That’s what is making me mentally ill.

I feel your same feelings RCMAC.

The Ohio ballot issue is really a damned if you do/don't. A delay to 6/2 probably isn't enough as could very well be worse then and you can't go back much further. There is a very recent Biden quote I can't find right now (probably quoting someone else) about the greatest part of our democracy being the ability to participate in elections. With all the mistrust, talk of interference the past few years, I lean toward the voting should be the only thing going on right now. To help preserve the moral, integrity and trust of our union. With a big asterick: A lot of control measures at polling places and the roll out of a mail in option in the next 4 weeks, if that is humanly possible.

RCMAC said:

all I could think about on the drive home is that my 14 days just started over. Again.

Mine starts over the moment my wife gets home from work each day. She works at a credit union, and they've done nothing yet to help in the spread. I've heard of other banks going to drive-through only, putting employees on 2-week rotations, and even only opening a few branches around the area each day.

The one thing that keeps me sane is that the kids are out of school. My wife is smart - she washes her hands between each interaction, doesn't touch anything she doesn't need (IDs, pens), and in general is smart about what she's doing; she's also working the drive-through line this week, so that helps mitigate as well.

The kids, however, aren't that smart. Around friends, there is no personal space, and washing hands seems to be an optional activity. Their school is a virtual petri dish every day they're in session.

Jeff said:

My point is that had I met him 48 hours later, I might have been exposed. The next day I went bowling, and went out for a burrito on Tuesday. See math above... my seemingly harmless behavior could have been unknowingly harmful to others.

Does this put you in the same category as Hong Kong (sorry, South Korea) Patient 31 that you referenced earlier? It's easy to see your impact after the fact, its much harder to see it as this whole thing evolves. Just like we've seen since this article was first posted back in late January.

Jeff said:

I'm at fault because you say something other than what you mean? I'm not interested in being right, I'm interested in challenging your skepticism.

Yes. It is not my responsibility to know how you interpret what I say. No where did I say I was skeptical of anything. Alternatively, this could have been avoided by asking a question like "Rob, are you saying you are skeptical of the virus itself? Or the response?" It wouldn't bother me if you asked. It bothers me when you load my words with meanings that weren't intended.

Frankly, when it comes to science I don't trust you, or Lord, or anyone else that posts here. Because we are not experts, we are only commentators. This isn't our profession. If I needed custom forum software written, you'd be my guy. If I wanted the weirdest Internet memes, Lord is my guy. If you need to know about PLC's and automation control? I could be your guy. But when a doctor comes on and explains to us what is going on, I'm going to listen.

I come here for the roller coaster and amusement park talk. It would be a lot more interesting if there wasn't pissing matches all the time, but hey, it's the Internet. But if you are going to turn this into an issue where I have to waste my time defending something I didn't say and you interpret? Then I simply won't participate.

As far as 'being told' and 'buy in,' you are most likely right by your interpretation. The biggest reason is in my atmosphere of contacts, there is nobody I know that has tested positive for Coronavirus. But I know tons of people who had the flu. Or thought they had the flu, but tested negative. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Coronavirus has been here for a while, but we didn't know. Globally, we as a people are incredibly mobile. We now have media, social media, science telling us about a virus that may or may not have already been here. Does that make me skeptical of the virus? No.

We've been here before, with H1N1, Ebola, SARS, etc. But we've NEVER had this level of containment during those outbreaks. If you told me a week ago to make a BINGO card of things that would have been affected or closed because of Coronavirus, I would have been as successful as picking an Arrow Pipeline roller coaster as Kings Island's new ride for 2020. I am not fond of these measures of containment, but I'm following it. I understand what we are trying to do. I'm hopeful that this becomes a case study for future illnesses and how to contain it.

As for me? It's very possible that I had Coronavirus three weeks ago, but didn't know it. The day after I came home from Mexico, I started feeling sick. Had the dry throat, a lower grade fever, had the craziest cough that persisted for almost two weeks. I treated it as I did the common cold. I kept myself remote working as possible but I did have scheduled commitments that I had to attend. I didn't find it necessary to go to the doctor, let alone get tested because I was working through it. It's very possible that I could have affected multiple people, in multiple countries without even knowing it. I also think its very plausible that I'm not alone in this. Which leads me back to the response and if this is all really necessary? That I can't answer. We are reacting to the s*it show that is happening in Italy.

hehe Arrow Pipeline. You're dating yourself sir (and I'm just as old)

HeyIsntThatRob? said:
Which leads me back to the response and if this is all really necessary? That I can't answer. We are reacting to the s*it show that is happening in Italy.

I think you answered your own question, in the sentence immediately after you said you couldn't answer it.

We're doing this so we don't become the **** show that is happening in Italy.

HeyIsntThatRob? said:

Frankly, when it comes to science I don't trust you, or Lord, or anyone else that posts here. Because we are not experts, we are only commentators. This isn't our profession. If I needed custom forum software written, you'd be my guy. If I wanted the weirdest Internet memes, Lord is my guy. If you need to know about PLC's and automation control? I could be your guy. But when a doctor comes on and explains to us what is going on, I'm going to listen.

You should absolutely trust my opinion. I've played doctor with like 2 different girls.

Also, "Lord"? So formal. Let's stick with Gonch. 😊

HeyIsntThatRob? said:
Does this put you in the same category as Hong Kong (sorry, South Korea) Patient 31 that you referenced earlier? It's easy to see your impact after the fact, its much harder to see it as this whole thing evolves. Just like we've seen since this article was first posted back in late January.

In practice, yes, but that asshole was symptomatic, so it's not exactly the same. But you're pointing out why it's so important to act: it's easier to see your impact after the fact. That was my whole point... the latency is what could get a lot of people sick.

Is it bad that I get better and more practical information from Coasterbuzz during an international crisis than many elected officials and news sources?

Yes, it's the worst. Some counties and states are doing it right though. Like I said, the feds may as well not exist.

My go-to is The New York Times, which is allowing you free access to this particular news, a small number of actual doctors and epidemiologists who have been posting on their own, and a few long-form TV interviews that of course come up via late-night comedy.

They want you to create a free account, but I think the depth is excellent: https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus

Lord Gonchar said:

HeyIsntThatRob? said:

Frankly, when it comes to science I don't trust you, or Lord, or anyone else that posts here.

Also, "Lord"? So formal. Let's stick with Gonch. 😊

In my line of work, Lord with a capital 'L' means a completely different thing. I was *totally* confused there for a moment.

Tekwardo said:

Instead of 40,000 deaths, with the same amount of infection, we could have Tripp’s that.

HeyIsntThatRob? said:
As for me? It's very possible that I had Coronavirus three weeks ago, but didn't know it. The day after I came home from Mexico, I started feeling sick. Had the dry throat, a lower grade fever, had the craziest cough that persisted for almost two weeks. I treated it as I did the common cold. I kept myself remote working as possible but I did have scheduled commitments that I had to attend.

I'd be curious if it were possible, to see how many people have already had this.

Like you, both my parents had something similar about a month ago or so. Fever, horrible cough and even chest pains in which my mom went to the doctor to ensure she didn't break a rib from coughing. Mind you, my mom has a history of heart issues so she wasn't taking chances... Both parents were treated with OTC type meds as usual. Ever since I can remember, I've only seen my mom or dad sick a handful of times with the flu. It's rare, but they both got it days apart this time around.

Girlfriend also, around the same time, had a low grade fever but had the cough as well. Sore, typical flu like stuff. This was about 3-4 weeks ago. I had something for a few days, but it was practically nothing... Just lethargic and whatnot. I got over it pretty quickly.

There is a write up floating around from a pediatrician mentioning how the flu virus this year was unlike any other with the kids that came into the office, with symptoms that varied from every other year they have been in practice the past two months or so. Perhaps this was why?

I bet for the past two months, give or take, this has already been spread all over. Most treated it like any other flu simply because nobody knew about this virus yet. But now, there is testing and so much focus on it (for good reason), that we now are in a frenzy. Now if you feel sick, you likely get tested and confirmed. A month ago, no such thing. But if there was a way to check if you did have it prior, that would be an interesting adder to the statistics being passed around on the death rate and the like.

Not sure I buy the hysteria, honestly... I personally think the data is just skewed at this point. Still great to be safe and keep distance, but if this has been occurring 6-8 weeks already and nobody knew it, is it worth the severity of the isolation happening right now? I don't know. There is a greater than zero chance that with accurate statistics, this may not be nearly as bad as it is made out to be. No way to know, though.

It was not already here. Come on man, aren't you an engineer? As contagious as it is, we'd be on the back side of it with collapse of the healthcare system.

I love it that everyone is a statistician when they don't like the results.

Steve, you raise some excellent points, and I think that society is buying into some conclusions that have been generated in an environment where I suspect there’s a significant possibility that reality is quite different. There’s been a lot of discussion about the likelihood of a great number of asymptomatic “stealth carriers,” and given that those individuals are never likely to know they had/have this virus and thus won’t appear in data, it could drastically alter the death rate of this virus.

I’m just using arbitrary numbers here, but let’s say that out of 100 known flu patients, 1 person dies. As I understand it, and please correct me if I’m wrong, you’re not likely to get the flu and be unaware of it. Now, let’s say out of 100 known Coronavirus carriers, 10 people die. That’s a much higher fatality rate, but there’s a good possibility that there are actually 10,000 Coronavirus carriers, and if that’s true, it suddenly changes the situation dramatically, but we’re making decisions the likes of which have never been seen before with what appear to be some serious potential holes in the data.

Again, if I’ve got this wrong, I’m more than happy to accept my error. I wish that testing was more available and widespread, because it would make the decision-making regarding restrictions a lot more effective. I just don’t like the way people who are still trying to go out and live some sense of a normal life are almost being treated like potential murderers.