Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

HeyIsntThatRob? said:

At least in the US, life was still able to go on during WW2. People naturally still want to be productive and social. Sitting at home watching Netflix is neither of those.

We have countless ways to stay "connected" that didn't exist in the 40's. We are arguably more socially-connected now via the Internet alone than we were back then. I get that it's not the same, but still.

And by all accounts the disruption resulting from not taking these measures will far exceed the disruption the measures will cause.

So, here is a peek into the window of my life as an educator from this morning I thought some of you might enjoy. Since I am also a therapist, I often get asked "advice on life" questions from my students. Here is the first email I woke up to:

So more of a psychological question since I know you have a doctorate: I'm being told by people this coronavirus is part of the second coming of Christ (I’m somewhat religious) and it’s had my anxiety high recently... I was wondering if you had any psychological tips to help.

Well? Any tips?

The ad on CBuzz right now says "I stand for the flag, I kneel for the cross".

Mine says that reams of Hammermill paper are on sale at Staples, which reminds me... I don't need paper, but I should re-up my CBuzzClub subscription.

I'm waiting on the uprising from the younger generation. We already know they hate the Boomers. Now that life as they know it has been destroyed I do not think it will take them much time to say "we have sacrificed everything that we know just so some old people won't die? Screw them."

Somewhat tongue in cheek, but I imagine that thought is going to cross a few people's minds.

When that won't result in tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths.

The reality is we're just trying to spread it out so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system.

NY went from just over 1000 cases yesterday to over 2300 confirmed cases today.

Which translates in to a lot more actual untested cases.

And high risk people still aren’t staying home while many who will likely get it and be fine are mingling in public as well.

That’s why this is such a big problem.

Jeff said:

It's not very possible, because every single bit of evidence indicates otherwise.

"Evidence" today doesn't mean it will be true tomorrow. It just takes another study or experiment to change what we know today. Even things like the laws of physics are being questioned after recent experiments. Science changes over time.

I just have my doubts on the 'statistics' being passed around as of late, but that's just me. It's just too immature at this point. It may certainly be accurate and be exactly as 'they' say, but it also may make a complete 180 in the near future as more information is received. We don't know what we don't know.

“I’ll believe science when it synchs up with what I believe.”

Dr. Amy Acton was on Governor DeWine’s press conference today, and stated that it has likely been here since February, and a lot of people already had it and thought it was a cold, or flu.

We will never know how many real cases their were, but when I joked about catching Coronavirus from hanging around with Rob at Winter Chill Out - who knew?

Disclaimer: I don't know anyone at FUN, not even the Dippin' Dots guy.

From SEC Filings there was some significant purchases of FUN stock by Senior Insiders (those who by the nature of their positions have to disclose). They bought in the $44-$52 range, so that puts it late February. It's trading at $13.34 at the close today.

Ouch.

Again, that dividend is currently sitting at roughly 21%. I have zero belief that, with the parks closed during the Easter season, and no real known opening date on horizon, that the company would actually pay the quarterly dividend in Early June. Simply my opinion, but hard to beg for govt relief if you pay a boatload of cash to your shareholders. Yes I know that FUN is a MLP and that it's designed to pass profits through to shareholders via large dividends , but this is the Upside Down, so cash is king in a crisis.

Raven-Phile said:

We will never know how many real cases their were, but when I joked about catching Coronavirus from hanging around with Rob at Winter Chill Out - who knew?

Whoa.... I started feeling symptomatic the day after WCO, too. Not saying that I had it, but wow.

Yeah, I was on and off a bit snotty and scratchy, with a bit of a cough, but I attributed it to being in and out of the water park and then spending all day outside and among people with colds. I’m guessing that’s what most of us did, and we will never know. Kind of staggering.

SteveWoA said:
Even things like the laws of physics are being questioned after recent experiments. Science changes over time.

This is such a bad argument. There are very, very minor details in some corner cases of what most people would call "the laws of physics" that it's ridiculous to use that as a counter example. "Oh, we can't figure out exactly how quantum mechanics squares with general relativity inside black holes? Well then I don't believe in gravity."

Shades said:

I'm waiting on the uprising from the younger generation. We already know they hate the Boomers. Now that life as they know it has been destroyed I do not think it will take them much time to say "we have sacrificed everything that we know just so some old people won't die? Screw them.

You may be right. After suggesting people avoid large public gatherings bars were packed this weekend, presumably with younger people. The governor of Illinois shut down bars and restaurants in response to that. Beaches in spring break hot spots are far from empty.

Have you seen these spring break bro assholes? "Whatever I need to party!" These morons will get on planes to everywhere now. Did they not understand why their schools kicked them out early?

Here's a great video about exponential growth. The lilly pad analogy drives it home. If they duplicate one per day, and it takes 60 days to fill the pond, the difference between 50% and 100% covered is in the last day.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2660801087350872&id=173915612706111

SteveWoA said:

"Evidence" today doesn't mean it will be true tomorrow.

I just have my doubts on the 'statistics' being passed around as of late, but that's just me.

It may certainly be accurate and be exactly as 'they' say, but it also may make a complete 180 in the near future as more information is received. We don't know what we don't know.

Just look at the words you put in air-quotes: 1) Scientific evidence, 2) crucial data, and 3) the scientific professionals working their collective asses off to save you from yourself.

After you look at those words think about them and what they represent.

After that look in the mirror.

Now punch yourself.

Jeff said:

Have you seen these spring break bro assholes? "Whatever I need to party!" These morons will get on planes to everywhere now. Did they not understand why their schools kicked them out early?

These people need some place to go where they can learn things. ....Oh...sh!t.

Dividends being cut:

[Marriott suspending their dividend this morning as well]

Darden Restaurant (Olive Garden) has announced they are suspending their quarterly dividend, and completely borrowed the full amount of the $750M line of credit in an abundance of caution. That means they borrowed all they could, before banks start pulling back credit.

FUN has been amazingly quiet so far, besides the ill-timed email stating their parks were opening as originally scheduled.

You should expect an announcement from them similar to Darden's doing everything they can do to preserve cash. I just can't believe that they will keep what is currently >20% dividend, with all parks closed. I'm not saying FUN isn't an attractive price here if we all survive, but if that dividend gets cut, the stock could go lower, and certainly will be less loved in the future, and could take longer to make gains. Be careful if trying to invest at these levels.

ApolloAndy said:

These people need some place to go where they can learn things. ....Oh...sh!t.

They're about to learn a big lesson. There's an interesting story about an LGBTQ event in Miami two weeks ago, that still happened though other large gathering events had been canceled. As you can imagine, COVID-19 clusters are already being traced back to that event. I can only imagine the cluster bloom when these kids go back home.