Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

There is no assurance there will ever be an effective vaccine. And certainly not that there will be one soon.

Lord Gonchar said:

I don't know what to tell you. 125,000 dead out of 25,000,000 is a wholly better scenario that 125,000 dead out of 2,500,000. To simply shrug off new information that reduces the mortality rate by a factor of 10 feels a little like moving the goalposts...again.

Sometimes it feels like bad news is always bad and good news is always irrelevant. Just take the win for once. At what point are we allowed to be positive?

Take it with a grain of salt. CDC was estimating a 0.26% fatality rate back in May. 125,000 out of 25,000,000 would be a fatality rate of 0.5%. If 80% is the target level for herd immunity that would be 1.4 million deaths if the current death rate is 0.5% and continues to hold at that level.

What's concerning to me is that Houston just hit 100% of their normal ICU bed capacity. Available beds are becoming scarce in Arizona and south Florida as well.

With all that being said our vacation to Universal in three weeks is still on...as of now, anyway. We are keeping a close eye on the situation in Orange County.

Call me selfish, say I'm ignoring the science, call me whatever you'd like (except a Republican) but I just don't see how it's realistic to not even allow the idea of a new normal until a reliable vaccine is available, at best, in a year.

People have to go back to work. Businesses have to open. People need to be social and have modified recreation opportunities available. The risk/reward for maintaining good mental health is a sliding scale for everyone. But the number of people that can work remotely 100% of the time and afford grocery delivery 100% of the time is relatively low. If you can do it and you're OK with doing it - by all means do it. But if I hadn't discovered how to live a modified normal of my normal life routine I can't even imagine where my mental health would be right now. The risk of contracting COVID-19 is worth it for me every day in order to live a life that provides me with quality of life in terms of my mental health.

Lord Gonchar said:

I'm coming back to this thread for the sake of continuity. This is something that was touched on in the discussion early on and now the CDC is confirming those suspicions (although not at the level of some of the earlier "studies" we shared).

Actual Coronavirus Infections Vastly Undercounted, C.D.C. Data Shows

If the infection rate is actually 10 times higher, then they mortality rate is 1/10th what we believe. That's encouraging.

I still stand by my age/compromised based ideas from before. We're seeing a surge right now...of cases. I'm really interested on seeing how the death count (that sounds so morbid, but it's true) plays out in the next few weeks. I think we might be surprised - if it's a lot of young people then that should also move the mortality rate downward.

I dunno. Not looking for pushback. Just wanted to share. I really believe it's a positive thing.

With that said, my family is expected to get on an airplane and move our kid into the dorms with a couple of thousand other students...in Miami, Florida...in 6 weeks...just as airline announce they'll be filling planes to capacity again staring in July. I can't say I'm entirely comfortable with the idea.

I’ve done a couple flights and driven halfway across the country twice in the past few months. It’s not a big deal unless you are in an older age bracket. Then it’s a matter of your comfort levels and risk tolerance.

You are the third or fourth person that has said flying is really no different, not that bad, and feels safer/cleaner than ever. I'm not sure why I'm so comfortable with everything else but have the mental block on flying, but for the fact that the media narrative frequently focuses on air travel.

There are some differences between airlines, my flight on American was packed full. Delta is doing less capacity on planes. But even with less capacity it is nowhere near six feet apart, so honestly that is just a sanitation theater marketing gimmick. Only change to the flights is no beverage service, which I wouldn’t be surprised if they ride that wave long into the future in order to save costs.

As long as both parties are wearing a mask I'm comfortable with the less than six foot spacing. I still think the most laughable aspect of sanitation theater as far as amusement parks are concerned is the every other row coaster seating. I get that they have to do it or else they face a backlash. But if someone is infected in Row 1 and screams their spittle down the first drop of Magnum, thinking there is a condom like barrier to keep me safe in Row 3 by keeping Row 2 open is laughable.

BrettV said:

Call me selfish, say I'm ignoring the science, call me whatever you'd like (except a Republican) but I just don't see how it's realistic to not even allow the idea of a new normal until a reliable vaccine is available, at best, in a year.

People have to go back to work. Businesses have to open. People need to be social and have modified recreation opportunities available. The risk/reward for maintaining good mental health is a sliding scale for everyone.

But here's the thing: "somehow" other countries have managed to dramatically reduce the risk, then reopen in a much more safe manner than we are. I know everyone has seen the chart where every other country's post-peak cases continue falling while they gradually reopen except us who go shooting off on another exponential curve. I know we're not going to return to totally normal until there's a vaccine (maybe ever) and I also know that we have to return to some semblance of normal before then. It's just maddening to no end that instead of actually trying to do it safely, we (our leadership) say it can't be done, and all the while, everyone else seems to be doing it.

And I agree 100% with that.

BrettV said:

Call me selfish, say I'm ignoring the science, call me whatever you'd like (except a Republican) but I just don't see how it's realistic to not even allow the idea of a new normal until a reliable vaccine is available, at best, in a year.

I didn't say "new normal," I said "normal." This new thing that we're not even doing right or consistently is not normal. Normal is me getting ****ed up at Epcot and then seeing Living Colour melt faces, to the horror of elderly people, and then ordering the chips without the fish from a lively British person who can safely travel here, then packing in around World Showcase with sweaty tourists to watch fireworks. That's normal.

Lord Gonchar said:

125,000 dead out of 25,000,000 is a wholly better scenario that 125,000 dead out of 2,500,000. To simply shrug off new information that reduces the mortality rate by a factor of 10 feels a little like moving the goalposts...again.

Sometimes it feels like bad news is always bad and good news is always irrelevant. Just take the win for once. At what point are we allowed to be positive?

From the CDC:

Overall, indicators used to monitor COVID-19 activity remain lower than peaks seen in March and April; however, increases are being seen in the percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and percentage of visits for ILI (influenza-like illness) or CLI (COVID-like illness in multiple parts of the country, in some case for consecutive weeks.

That confirms what we've heard in the media recently. It continues:

The percentage of outpatient and emergency department visits for ILI are below baseline nationally and in all regions of the country. Most regions have remained stable, compared to last week; however, a few regions experienced an increase in the percentage of visits for CLI and/or ILI with the largest increases in Regions 4 (South East), 6 (South Central), and 9 (South West/Coast).

The media has stressed the last part of this information but not the first. It continues:

The overall cumulative COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate is 98.4 per 100,000

This is cumulative. As is stands now, there's about a 1 in 1000 chance of anyone in the population being hospitalized with COVID, and it's substantially less than that if you're under age 50. The age 85+ group odds of COVID hospitalization rate is 0.55%, or just under 1 in 200. It continues:

Based on death certificate data available on June 25, 2020, 6.9% of all deaths occurring during the week ending June 20, 2020 (week 25) were due to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC). This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC; however, the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold of 5.9% for week 25.

To summarize:

• number of COVID cases are going up and likely significantly under-counted
• hospitalization rates are below critical thresholds except in a few areas
• odds of a person requiring hospitalization after being infected with COVID is low
• COVID death rates are going down

I'd say on balance this is good news. I'd argue it's fantastic news if the case numbers are an order of magnitude higher than reported.

So if it holds, maybe it's good news relative to March, possibly neutral news relative to May, but still catastrophically bad news relative to February?

Back to bad news. Fauci says herd immunity is unlikely if voluntary vaccine rate is two thirds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/28/coronavirus-live-u...V5RGMMPJGM

ApolloAndy said:

So maybe it's good news relative to March, possibly neutral news relative to May, but still catastrophically bad news relative to February?

To be fair, isn't pretty much everything bad news relative to February?

Gary Dowdell said:
To summarize:

• number of COVID cases are going up and likely significantly under-counted
• hospitalization rates are below critical thresholds except in a few areas
• odds of a person requiring hospitalization after being infected with COVID is low
• COVID death rates are going down

I'd say on balance this is good news. I'd argue it's fantastic news if the case numbers are an order of magnitude higher than reported.

"The media" is not a conspiratorial force intent on painting a picture for some nebulous agenda. Stop with "the media." The underlying data is readily available from both government and non-government sources. There is no good news, things are not improving.

Hospitalization rates are increasing in more than a few areas, and if you weren't paying attention to Europe and NYC before, they reach critical mass quickly. Houston is there, Palm Beach is at 100% ICU capacity, with Broward right behind them. They'll get there because it's too late to change that outcome. Most of Arizona is there. Parts of the rural south are there. Whomever gets complacent next will be on the list, too.

The rate of hospitalization in Florida is 1 in 10, which sure as hell isn't low. Even if it were ten times better, 1 in 100 is not good odds. I've been sick with lesser things hundreds of times, and never had to be hospitalized.

This pretending where things are getting is better is exactly why they're getting worse. This is not a convenient disease to deal with, but it can be dealt with if everyone does their part. They're not, so it's getting worse.

Holy despondency, dude. You're talking about something completely different. Of course the rise in infections is bad news, is anyone disputing that? The good news being brought up here is that the odds of dying from COVID if infected is much lower than originally thought, based on the under-reported number of confirmed cases. Unless I'm missing something.

The spread is worse than originally thought, yes...and getting worse because people are being stupid. But the odds of surviving it are better than originally thought. I don't think anyone here is pretending things are getting better or saying we should all ease up on the mitigation recommendations. Are we not allowed to celebrate some positive information, at least 6 feet from each other with our masks on?

I do not see how you can possibly celebrate anything when you know that at some point each and every one of us is going to die.

GoBucks89 said:

There is no assurance there will ever be an effective vaccine. And certainly not that there will be one soon.

Honestly, not sure I'd even be willing to get it. For something to be rushed to market (versus the standard 10-15 years?) so quickly without long-term studies on side effects and such, personally, I'd probably rather take the risk of the Rona' if I didn't have it already by then... I'm low risk enough (age, health, etc...) that it will hardly be any issue for me, knock on wood? Of course, it just depends what facts and information we have by then, if and whenever it does come around. If I have to get the shot to keep my job for example, well, there we go. Easy decision.

Vater said:

Holy despondency, dude.

Shades said:

I do not see how you can possibly celebrate anything when you know that at some point each and every one of us is going to die.

Happy Birthday? No such thing

Despondency? Really? Don't start making this a personality issue three months in. I'm looking at this from a completely realistic perspective. Maybe I'd feel differently if I was a Kiwi, but the dreadful inability of American leadership to get anything right, to say nothing of the inability of the public to even follow basic directions, is reason enough not to not have any hope of things getting better. A friend posted a photo from Holiday World today... a packed Legend queue with no masks or social distancing. At all. This morning we were on a nearly empty beach, and this woman parks her chair 10 feet from us. Really?

And the whole age-risk thing is grossly misunderstood. The situation in Houston has people in their 20's and 30's being hospitalized with some pretty nasty symptoms. What's disheartening about that is it's often not the people who were out partying, it's the people trying to function in a world where others are. That's why we fail.

While you might be right about the odds of survival being better than expected, the stupid people use that information to exercise blatant disregard for everyone else. That's why things aren't better.