Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

I don't think there has been a lot of flipping on anything. I think a lot of Google PhD's with a minor in entitlement have latched on to anecdotes and selective hearing to believe what they want.

I agree with you that those people exist, but how would you not consider the results of studies analyzing the spread, or lack thereof, of the virus resulting from the protests to be the exact opposite of what would be expected, at least from the perspective of social distancing and what we’ve been told about its necessity? Maybe flip-flop is a poor choice of words considering that science itself doesn’t flip-flop, but at the very least, the data showed something that wasn’t what a lot of people were expecting.

Super excellent look into the mask wearing thing over the past few months, where we are now, and some of how we got here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-science-of-mask-wearing-ha...ectations/

Someone on FB posted 129 pictures of their recent visit to Indiana Beach, and there were lots and lots of random shots of the crowd. In those 129 photos there were two (2) guests that had masks on- a man and his son sitting on a bench. All the employees were wearing them. Everyone else was mask-free, lining up for rides and food, with no distancing whatsoever.
I can’t wait to see the look on everyone’s face when lockdown comes back.

BrettV said:

And therapy has taught me that I need to live in the present and in the moment more often and enjoy opportunities as they come and not waste today worrying about or overly looking forward to tomorrow while at the same time as regretting yesterday. So I'll take the risk and go to places like parks and restaurants when I feel the risk/reward balances itself out to a level I am comfortable with.

And that's why, as long as you are following the recommended safety protocols, there is nothing wrong or bad about choosing to participate in activities and going to places that have reopened. And there is nothing wrong or bad about choosing to continue to isolate as much as possible.

This here is major. Here and now matters. Last year due to family obligations and other family members not sharing the burden lots of things I normally would have done or had planned for last summer didn't happen and all the while I kept telling myself it's OK because I'll do it next year, next year will be better. Next year will be awesome. It is now "next year". To say I'm feelin' a bit salty about not being more self centered last year is probably an understatement so when I see people suggesting I shouldn't even consider doing something because it will be better to do it next year when things are better, safer, whatever all I can think is I fell into that trap already and got burned. I'm not going to go around licking doorknobs and intentionally coughing on people at close range but if I want to do something really badly and the restrictions in place/hassles involved aren't unbearable for me as an individual I'm going to do it. Present and in the moment is important. There have been several deaths around me in recent months and not a single one was related to the pandemic. Time marches on no matter what we do or don't do. The only "closure" my coworkers and I got to the end of our school year at work was seeing each other at the funeral of one of our students. I'm not putting off living. Good news for everyone else is that I'm mostly a homebody who doesn't like crowds or having strangers in my personal space and I was already obsessive about covering coughs and sneezes and a frequent and very thorough handwasher before any of this so if I make it to an amusement park that will probably be the riskiest thing I do and I'll probably be one of the safest people for you to stand within 6 feet of.

There's still so much we simply don't know:

1. COVID case numbers are going up in many parts of the world, despite increases in the percentages of the population wearing masks. South Africa and many South American countries instituted mandatory mask orders around May 1 and yet the case numbers continue to climb in those locations. Why is this?
2. South Africa and France have nearly the same number of cases thus far and similar population (See #16 and #17 on this chart). France had nearly 30,000 deaths and South Africa thus far only has 3,000. What accounts for this?
3. Case numbers in the US continue to climb and yet the mortality rate continues to go down (Source). One possible explanation is that the median age of someone who is infected now is half of what it was at the outset of the outbreak. Healthy people in their 20's, 30's, and 40's by and large simply do not have the same negative responses to the virus than those who are older.
4. Why are many grade schools ready to enact extreme measures this coming school year when the numbers bear out that children have extremely low odds of hospitalization from this virus (odds of about 1 in 20,000 in the 0-18 age group) - Source) and have been shown not to be significant spreaders of the virus (Source and Source)?

One thing I do know is the empathy I feel for those currently in nursing homes. They constantly have to worry about contracting the virus and the associated consequences. They likely haven't been able to touch anyone they care about in months. If they do recover, they get to walk out into a world where many people look at them as a potential biohazard. I like what Paisley said above: "I'm not putting off living." Really says it all.

Gary Dowdell said:

1. South Africa and France have nearly the same number of cases thus far and similar population (See #16 and #17 on this chart). France had nearly 30,000 deaths and South Africa thus far only has 3,000. What accounts for this?

The median age of South Africa is 26 years. The median age in France is 41 years. Life expectancy in South Africa is about 64 years; in France it's 82. Put those things together and you simply have many more people in the high-risk age brackets in France.

It's more obvious now than ever that we are going to be living with this virus for at least the next 12 months. Simply saying "we'll just do it in 2021" is no longer the guarantee it seemed to be back in April and May.

I fully agree the US has had an awful response to so much of this. But folks advocating a second shutdown often fall short of realizing it's largely impractical simply because it won't be a true "lockdown". The first one wasn't. A second one would have even less support and participation. Finding ways to get more people to be responsible with coexisting with the virus seems much more practical. And it allows us to keep living life.

So far, that's not going well, but perhaps it will change when more people know someone who had it. The stuff about long recovery time, even if you didn't have to be hospitalized, doesn't sound like a lot of fun. A friend of mine was basically down for the count for five weeks.

That the mortality rate has gone down isn't hard to decipher... there's more experience treating the disease. For example, now we know that some cocktail of steroids and remdesivir, if administered early, helps shorten the treatment period. There's growing evidence that ECMO (oxygenating the blood outside of the body) might work better than ventilators, though there isn't enough equipment in the world to meet demand. People know symptoms and when to go to the hospital. Also, the case load may be increasing, but it's geographically a lot more spread out, so overwhelmed hospitals are not as common (yet).

Japan has one of the oldest (if not the oldest) populations. Has had very few cases and deaths per capita. No broad lockdowns or stay at home orders. No mass testing.

Jeff said:

That the mortality rate has gone down isn't hard to decipher... there's more experience treating the disease.

That so many of the newer cases are trending to younger people can't be ignored either. The science does say that I, a relatively healthy 34 year old have a significantly higher chance of experiencing milder symptoms (or none at all!) and a full recovery than someone in an older demographic.

For every person that's had their butt kicked for a month or more by it (and I am not discounting that at all. It's real and very serious), there are plenty of people that don't show a single symptom or felt nothing more than mild cold symptoms for a few days.

I suspect we have gotten better a treating it, but would love to see some numbers that quantify that improvement. I don't doubt it accounts for a chunk of the declining mortality rate.

But, I still say the demographic piece is the biggest one (and I'm not going to Gonchback - I know I was suggesting it long before it was on anyone's radar). Different people are getting sick. Everyone kees saying, "Well, wait two weeks and you'll see!" but we're not seeing.

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Rising Sharply, but Deaths Are Still Down

What I'm (we're?) suggesting here isn't groundbreaking. The Times said it two days ago.

Who was dying in the beginning was a bigger piece than anyone was giving credit to. If entire populations can take precautions to reduce the risk to acceptable levels, it doesn't seem unreasonable to expect to be able to do the same to the most vulnerable segment of our population while letting that herd immunity build up among the least vulnerable. Naturally, I was immediately questioned when I suggested it initially (oops, there's two Gonchbacks 🙂), but I didn't think it seems crazy then and I think it seems even less so now.

If we're not going to stop moving forward, we need to move forward safely and with purpose. I think that's entirely possible.

Hell, at the rate new cases are happening, we're all gonna have it sooner than later anyway.

I'm not super comfortable operating on "plenty of people" ratios. The fatality rates are apparently very difficult to measure at this stage. The crappy testing in the US doesn't make the infection rate easy to measure either. Nothing changes the fact that my family is particularly at risk, so you'll understand if I can't rely on optimism.

Just a general question, Jeff, if your family was not at high risk, do you think you (either solo or with them) would feel comfortable reentering the world to a greater level than you are at the moment? If the high risk element was removed from your nuclear family, would you be inclined to visit Disney or Universal, or some other public place with a mask and taking the precautions?

Taking extra precautions because your family is high risk is completely understandable. What I still don’t understand are the folks that believe everything should still be closed the way it was in April. I keep seeing people say that places like Disney, Universal, Cedar Point, etc are selfish and stupid for even considering reopening now, let alone the fact that they have/will be a week from now. My argument is that in April none of these places were at all set up to operate with the modified pandemic operations. It took these months to not only figure out what to do, but also to literally set it all up. When people ask “what changed” when asking why the Orlando parks closed mid March but are reopened now when the numbers are just as bad and even worse, my answer is that the parks weren’t at all prepared to operate like this in March. In the following months we have learned the best mitigation tactics, and parks have heavily invested in things like PPE and staff training in best practices on how to safely operate. Plus in March and April we didn’t know what we know now, and earlier on we were all told that we just needed to get through 2 or 3 weeks and things would just be relatively normal again. All that took time, which is why they were closed then, but are open/opening now. To me, it was prudent to close in March, and it’s prudent to be open or in the midst of a reopening process now.

I wouldn't visit the parks because the experience sucks either way. Going in the summer months is already an iffy situation in the swamp-ass months, but take away the social aspects and much of the entertainment and it's definitely not worth going.

And I still don't know who all the people are that insist everything should be closed. Mostly I just see people who wish people would do their part to mitigate and not be assholes about it. That's certainly where I am. We're now seeing exponential case growth in the OC, 1 in 4 tests are positive, ICU saturation is at 34%. Are we going to go the way of Houston? I sure hope not, but we haven't leveled off.

I do think that the urge to open is unrealistically broad. Open what exactly? No theater is going to realistically open this year. Disney wants to open, but it's a fraction of the "normal" experience. Bars opened, and we see where that got us. Open a shoe store or Best Buy, OK, that'll probably be OK. Put a bunch of kindergarteners in a room in late August? That sounds like a horrible idea. It seems to me that what and when to open is based on a desire to feel "normal," not what will actually work. Combined with bad individual decisions, that's making things worse, not better.

Just today my partner was telling about his conversation with an associate about their trip to Universal last week.
They reported the parks were practically empty, everything was a walk on except Hagrid which cost them about twenty minutes. And all this was with following social distance-led loading and capacity.

I wish I was a Floridian right now where people aren’t vacationing as much as usual instead of an Ohioan where everyone’s eager to jump in their cars and hit the parks. (And that’s maybe the only reason, mind you...)

We are vacationing next week. We are not in high risk categories and we are huge theme park nuts, but nothing about going to a park right now sounds pleasant to me. Instead we will rent a house near the beach and continue to practice common sense social distancing.

To follow up about the risk and such, it's stories like this one that definitely tilt me in the direction of, "I would prefer to be extra careful, and would really like other people's behavior not put me any more at risk. Nick Cordero was 41, and he battled this for 13 weeks, and had a leg amputated in the course of treatment.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/movies/2020/07/05/broa...232813002/

Is coronavirus airborne?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-...borne.html

That feels like another semantic debate. Of course it's airborne, because people aren't getting it primarily through sexual contact. The question is more about how long it can linger.