Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Financially, Las Vegas is going to get hit hard by this. Airlines have already had a decrease in passengers and most everyone flies to Las Vegas.

kpjb said:

Honestly, I was thinking of booking a cruise because of the rates.

Same. The deals are too good to pass up right now on every cruise line, even Disney. I already have a ton of travel going on between April and November but since I live less than an hour from Port Canaveral and Tampa, it would be crazy to not book a few cruises this summer.

I wish I knew my summer schedule - flights that were $100-$125 each way less than a week ago are $50-$75 round trip now.

Large swaths of Italy are now under full blown Quarantine.

US State Department is suggesting Americans don't cruise. That seems a bit extreme.

Interesting that the specific warning came from Dept of State, and not DHS. Yes, I realize State has governance over Int'l travel, but this is an unusual statement from them. It would appear that this caught the Cruise Lines off guard (from comments I've seen from a major player in that space).

Puerto Rico has a cruise case, and the Governor just signed an order that "effectively" prevents cruise ships from docking. The wording is different, but that's effectively what it does.

Oil is down 20% overnight, and the Dow futures are down 1,000 pts with circuit breakers kicking in.

We'll see what Monday morning brings.

u

CDC recommends travelers, particularly those with underlying health issues, defer all cruise ship travel worldwide.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/covid-19-cruise-ship

Not a cruise person but if I was, I don't think I would go. Getting the virus is no doubt a concern. But more so than anything, the risk of being out of pocket for 3 weeks or more is too high if there is an outbreak on a ship and the resulting quarantines.

I enjoy cruising but it's definitely a great way to spread the virus around and pass it off to places it otherwise wouldn't reach.

CreditWh0re said:

FUN is down 36% since We started this thread. Hotels, airlines and cruise companies are looking at wipeouts for q2 bookings.

So we’re within weeks of BGW and KD opening for the season. Most business travel is grinding to a halt as I type. Anyone want to bet now on if they open as scheduled? 2021 capital plans are being re-visited I’m sure.

Large swaths of Italy are now under full blown Quarantine.

Oil is down 20% overnight, and the Dow futures are down 1,000 pts with circuit breakers kicking in.

You must be a real hoot in person.

I'm a laugh riot.

Keeping these comments in this thread, because that's what we do here, is talk about things based on reality, and the start of this was to help people be informed, so that maybe they might not suffer a 35% drop in the value of their shares.

The upside is gas should be infinitely cheap this summer so we can all afford to go to theme parks.

It is interesting to see that SXSW cancelled, but I think the issue there was less about attendees bailing than it was speakers cancelling. Otherwise, it would make just as much sense to close WDW, which certainly isn't going to happen yet. There was no shortage of people at Epcot on Thursday, or at UO on Saturday (because don't underestimate the draw of REO Speedwagon).

I saw that the Indian Wells tennis tournament in California was cancelled; that is a pretty big tournament. If I read the article correctly it was cancelled because one person in the town/city has the virus. It doesn't seem like a stretch to me that if a few cases show up in Orlando things could get interesting with Mickey. Especially if those residents just happen to work at one of the parks.

I live in a County where one person got really sick and wound up hospitalized. They started chasing contacts of that one case and testing. People at the “patient zero’s” synagogue to the rabbi, to the doctor to the other doctors and nurses in that office, to other patients in that office and everyone’s respective families, ect... They found almost a 100 positive cases in the local county in under a week.

I heard that Florida wasn’t initially testing at all. I wonder why… Hmmm. What’s the title of the book I was just reviewing? But this weekend, two people died in Santa Rosa/Lee County. It’s in Florida already too. I speculate low level cases are being under reported everywhere.

I think given the petri dish environment on any ship, cruises are a huge risk. Case scenario: one person with the virus, the don’t let the boat redock until the point where half the ship has contracted it… Case two (scarier). Transmitter isn’t flagged on a 5-day cruise. Transmits it around the ship in the highly contagious environment. Cruisers who are a wide ranging geographic demographic spread it upon return.

Conferences and music festivals also have this large geographic pull and they are the first to go. It is more about where the pull is then the size of the event crowd. I’m surprised new musical festival are still being announced as of this morning. WDW model isn’t far from this either.

I wonder where that leaves the regional amusement parks. Hell, maybe they actually get a bounce this summer. Because need some regional outdoor escape and people won't travel anywhere. In theory, lower risk then the above? Back to the days of trolley parks… No they'll probably close or see restrictions too.

Let’s pray that this acts seasonally like flu and dissipates for the summer. Everyone has time to make a little bit of a plan. I don’t think forthcoming travel restrictions and sanctions are too extreme.

Asian countries seem to have found some containment success, but the US does not have the authoritarian government, nor the cultural discipline and respect of obeying guidelines/rules put in place. Add in the top level of government that seem not to want to acknowledge the extent of the problem. I think it is the tip of the iceberg.

Kstr 717 said:
I think given the petri dish environment on any ship, cruises are a huge risk. Case scenario: one person with the virus, the don’t let the boat redock until the point where half the ship has contracted it…

I think this is a wholly ignorant view that is not based on science. I've taken 20 cruises (all DCL). Even if the more prevalent flu strains were a frequent concern aboard the ships, just sheer statistics would suggest that I would have come home from at least one cruise sick. I can't speak for other cruise lines, but on DCL, the public restrooms are cleaned continuously all day, as in, there is literally someone there all day. People are walking around wiping down railings all day. Food service exceeds ServSafe standards with constant turnover of shared serving implements. You can't walk into a dining area without using hand sanitizers or sinks. Staterooms are cleaned twice a day. I can guarantee you that those ships are cleaner than any hotel, restaurant or theme park you've ever been to. And I know people who have been isolated to their rooms for having flu symptoms.

Nah, I don't think it's ignorant. I think you can look at the history of the extent of food poisoning and norovirus type outbreaks affecting large percentages of Cruise ships passengers on the ships they break out in yes, very isolated events. I don't think it has to do with the cleanliness of the ship, which I believe is as clean as you say. It is more due to the density of people and isolation of a seafaring vessel cultivating this environment. Airplanes are similar, but the window of time spent on them is shorter, so it is less problematic historically (although maybe not for Coronavirus)

I guess you're right that once the virus is discovered on the ship and everyone is locked down in their room, I imagine the risk of transmission throughout the ship drops much lower. But that doesn't mean the ships getting into port from quarantine any quicker.

Food poisoning has nothing to do with the transmission of airborne pathogens. Furthermore, according to the CDC, you have a 1 in 5,500 chance of contracting norovirus on a cruise, and that's when they weren't looking that hard for the symptoms. Now they're doing temperature checks and examining every person with a sniffle or cough.

I know it's anecdotal, but I've been on a combined 10 cruises with Carnival, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean, with several of those being on ships carrying 8000+ passengers and crew, yet neither me nor anyone in my family has gotten sick. I can say that they all take cleanliness and sanitation very seriously (the constant hand sanitizing is a personal annoyance because it destroys the skin on my hands, but I get it), and I certainly wouldn't characterize any of the ships I've been on as a Petri dish. It's sort of like safety with respect to the amusement park industry: the cruise lines have an inherent interest in not having tons of people getting sick on their ships, because it's, you know, bad for business.

You’re citing off the Cruise Line International Association, you don’t think there's an intended spin on their deck?

Are those numbers still good in this time? You said yourself the playbook is unknown. I honestly don’t think you can rely on past data.

Article from today on the Grand Princess: 21 confirmed cases; 3,533 on board = .5%; yes but 46 people were tested. So the hit rate on testing so far is 45% on the ship.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/09/813616982/coronavirus-u-s-has-564-cases-stricken-cruise-ship-to-dock-in-california

Diamond Princess, garbage article (don’t have time to find good one) but headline speaks for itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-went-wrong-2020-2

I guess the point we agree on is. Yes the risk is low of getting an outbreak on a cruise ship is typically very low.

But, an outbreak on a cruise ship historically can break ugly throughout the ship fast. And we're in the midst of an outbreak. So it is probably not a good idea to get on a cruise ship until this blows over.

The association is quoting the CDC... that seems pretty valid to me. Numbers don't care whether or not you believe them. 1 is still greater than 0 no matter what you think.

The risk can't be reduced to zero, but honestly, I'm at greater risk driving to the port than I am getting on the ship.

If you follow the cruise industry, you can draw a more obvious conclusion: Carnival and their associated brands suck at this. How many engine failures and disasters have they endured in the last decade? Remember the Costa Concordia?