Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Gonch- Yes, but not because of coronavirus... Orlando lines will be short because everyone will be at Cedar Point due to the Gold Pass Apocalypse.

Covid-19 could very well be a distant memory by this summer, or it could be a full-scale pandemic. No one really knows at this point. If it's the latter, it's possible that the Orlando lines would be non-existent because of the parks themselves being closed.

According to this article (in Italian), Italian amusement parks are pushing back their season openings:

The Italian Permanent Parks Association (PPI), which brings together more than 230 thematic, aquatic and faunal amusement parks, ensures now that all extraordinary measures are adopted necessary to deal with the emergency linked to the spread of Coronavirus. In compliance with the ordinances issued by the Regions involved, the companies concerned have already suspended all ongoing activities, while the Association is working to coordinate the actions to be taken in the parks whose opening, scheduled over the next few weeks, must be postponed.

The Disney Tokyo parks are closed.

it will be the same story in the US. Most US seasonal parks Normally open April (some end of March) I doubt that happens this year.

Meh. Maybe I am being flippant but I don't see US season parks delaying any openings unless they can't secure the foreign staff they need early in the season.

So we’re within weeks of BGW and KD opening for the season. Most business travel is grinding to a halt as I type. Anyone want to bet now on if they open as scheduled? 2021 capital plans are being re-visited I’m sure.

FUN is down 36% since We started this thread. Hotels, airlines and cruise companies are looking at wipeouts for q2 bookings.

We’re about to see a wholesale change in the way businesses operate in the U.S. you’re going to hear the term “Social Distancing” a lot in the next few weeks.

For those that wish to gamble, at current price Fun is a 10% dividend yield (please take tax impact into consideration).

if you think the stock can’t go much lower and you think the dividend isn’t at risk, 10% is looking pretty good.

I’m not that big of a gambler

I'm sailing on DCL a week from today. Email today indicated they're checking temperatures before boarding, which is not surprising. Their ships are clean in a way almost no public place is, so I'm not particularly worried. They're allowing you to rebook up until the day you sail now, which is crazy, and I wonder if a significant number of people will bail.

I’m sure the Diamond Princess has people spooked. Another ship is being held off the coast of California right now. I don’t think the worry is the cleanliness of the ship, but rather if any passengers are in the middle of the incubation period when they board, but infectious before the end of the cruise.

My daughter is going on a DCL cruise with her mother in mid-May, and I am hoping to take her to Kyoto, Tokyo, and TDLR in early June. I am holding off booking the Japan trip to see how things unfold there. So far they have not had any “should we go” conversations re: the cruise.

Airlines are reducing capacity by cancelling flights and grounding large aircraft as bookings tank, domestically and internationally. In Europe, the 2nd largest European airline Luftansa just announced cuts up to 50% in capacity. The US has been trimming already as well, but not as severely, yet. Delta, United and American have been cancelling and allowing you to cancel/rebook/credit even for non-refundable fares in certain cases.

I'd imagine this will have a big effect on tourism hubs within the US (Orlando, for example). I will be curious to see how Spring and Summer go at this rate. Perhaps regional parks will be OK as people stick closer to home? I guess it depends on the scare tactics used by the media and such on the exposure risk of being in public.

As far as cruise lines go, I can’t imagine they will be doing well for the near future. Going by the media coverage of various cruise ships around the world floating around in quarantine, doesn’t look so appealing from those that have something booked regardless of how clean the ship may or may not be. They must be getting pressure by those booked to change their policies to allow for cancelling last minute penalty-free, like the airlines.

CreditWh0re said:

So we’re within weeks of BGW and KD opening for the season. Most business travel is grinding to a halt as I type. Anyone want to bet now on if they open as scheduled? 2021 capital plans are being re-visited I’m sure.

Unless there is some drastic change in the next few weeks, I‘d gladly take the bet that the majority, if not all of the seasonal parks in the US will open as scheduled this spring.

RCCL May (I repeat May) have an issue in the Caribbean as of this morning, princess has a second significant issue, this time off the U.S.West Coast. Current sailings are already within the full cancelation penalty. The real question is bookings 90 days out, airline bookings are evaporating so I would expect +91 day cruise bookings are doing likewise.

ncaa has emptied the audience for one upcoming Tournament game this morning

you’re going to see a dramatic withdrawal of people willing to go to big crowds. Even if it’s not advised to do so, families are going to be reluctant to go to places with big crowds where you stand close together in a queue house. Let’s revisit this thought next week,

I had a business flight to Tokyo for mid April (annual trip). Out of 46 first class seats only three were booked. Usually that flight is near sold out

The U.S. airline let me cancel without issue (as I’m assuming they are about to cancel the flight anyway? ), as a “one off consideration”.

Slightly relevant, Mumps outbreak at Keystone Resort grows to 26 infections.

With the situation in its current state, a flight from the US to Tokyo is quite different than a theme park opening for the season in Doswell, Virginia.

In the US, I think the industry will let Disney take the lead on closings. If Disneyland stays open then the other parks probably will also. However, California, LA and SF have all declared emergencies and SF is refusing to let a cruise ship dock. If the infection rate grows geometrically in LA, I think Disneyland will close for a couple weeks. If that happens, the industry will take a hit for the season.

Keep in mind that the emergency declaration is largely a symbolic way to unlock funding and resources, not necessarily a measuring of the seriousness (though it's pretty serious).

Honestly, I was thinking of booking a cruise because of the rates. I know the cleanliness of those ships, especially now. Not undercutting the seriousness of this outbreak, but there is definitely some over-cautiousness going on.

I just saw a 7-day western Caribbean cruise on NCL, balcony room, including unlimited drinks, upgraded dining, free wifi, $200 towards excursions, and $200 on board credit for $650. That's insane. And it's on my favorite ship (because it's normal to have a favorite ship, right?) If I lived in Florida I'd be gone. A lot.

Plus they've waived the 60-day cancellation policy and will refund 100% up to 48 hours before you sail, so there's very little risk if things get worse.

Sucks for the industry and the economy in general, but silver lining is that I plan on doing a lot of cheap travel if this thing doesn't get any worse.

Not sure how it won't get worse. Within a week or so, I would expect confirmed cases in all 50 states. May well be in all 50 already but just don't have confirmation because testing has been slow to roll out. 80% or so of people have little to no symptoms (in cold and flu season with similar symptoms). Not sure how it doesn't spread.

That isn't cause for alarm necessarily. Just reality based on interconnected nature of the world. Mortality rate likely will fluctuate as more data is available. But at this point it appears to be a bigger issue for older people which is a concern.

Companies are making plans to shutdown facilities if the virus is detected there (have people work at other locations or remotely from home). That doesn't work well for all businesses. Closing schools is an option but where do the kids go? Some people can stay home with kids but many can't. How all of that will work out remains to be seen.

There is reason for concern and there is overreaction and also wishful thinking. I expect over the next several months, we will see a lot of each of them.

There's no playbook for this. I think there is one for really dangerous outbreaks, like Ebola, but for something that "only" kills 3% of the infected, and potentially more among older people, it's not clear what the right level of concern is.

As for the parks opening on time this season.....

You have two factors in play:

One is whether there is direction from public health advisories to avoid large groups ("Social Distancing").

The other is every parent in America who decides "no way in Hell I'm letting my family go to [Fill in the Blank] location".

Again, the first case that gets tracked to WDW or DL and it's game over for the short term. I would suggest that the Stock price for FUN is a very good indicator of just what the market thinks is going to happen in the next 3 weeks.

Just like a cold rainy day in early April, if there's no one in the park, it's easier just to close the doors and wait it out. That's my suspicion. First two cases in Nevada this morning, so watch how Las Vegas reacts.