Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Thanks. I’m not home yet but I’m doing OK; quite frankly I wasn’t even going to bring it up here until I was.

—Dave Althoff, Jr.

The WHO wants to remind us that potentially less severe is still a problem if it's made up on volume, and at the moment, that's where it's going.

In the US right now, the daily average number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 is up to 110,334, a 58 percent increase from two weeks ago. And hospitalizations still appear to be rising.

Of particular concern are the rising hospitalizations among children. More than 4,000 children are currently in the hospital with COVID-19, an all-time high in the pandemic, according to tracking by The Washington Post. The current number of hospitalized children is nearly double that from two weeks ago, when fewer than 2,000 were hospitalized. Several doctors and health experts have anecdotally reported seeing higher levels of COVID-related croup and bronchiolitis in children.

Meh.

Does "hospitalizations" refer to admissions to the hospital for extended periods of time, or does that include admissions for testing followed by immediate releases once tested positive with instructions to stay the hell home and rest?

If overall occupancy is going up, I'm pretty sure that's not because of an outbreak of broken bones.

I want Covid to be NBD too, but let's not let that bias blind us to what's actually going on.

Are the children bla... wait... are the children vaxxed?

I'm curious of the vaxxed/unvaxxed ratio of children hospitalized versus that of the general population.

I don’t know how many times it needs to be said, but other people exist and you affect them whether by transmission (possibly compounded by their own choices) or by health care resource usage.

You also “affect” people by constantly panicking and advocating for unnecessary restrictions.

We never demanded that everyone run out and get a flu shot for a virus that killed up to tens of thousands yearly. We didn’t run around demanding everyone mask up. Everyone quit visiting grandma, etc…back in 2018.

We, presumably, understood and accepted that a certain level of risk/death from respiratory viruses was worth it for society and mankind to continue doing the things they loved…needed (?)

And lets be honest here… That’s all we’re left debating. You think status quo risk is too much. I think status quo restrictions are too much.

And while it might feel good inside to be an advocate of indefinite restriction until ZERO Covid is reached…I’d remind you that :”restrictions” have a societal cost too.

So I respectfully (I believe you sincerely debate in good faith) state your words back to you… “Other people exist and you affect them…”

I don’t for one second blame you and other people who argue for indefinite restrictions for the next teenage suicide; the next teacher’s strike; the next cloth mask mandate; etc…

By the same token I feel no guilt for whatever “steps-removed” outcome (i.e. “You killed Grandma!) anyone wants to assign me for stating, “I’m FINISHED with your non-pharmaceutical interventions…” I got the vaccines. I got the booster. I’m DONE (unless you provide actual proof any of this other stuff actually works…)…

There seems to be two camps… A. Return to full normal. B. Live in COVID precaution land forever(?). We’re just debating about where that line should be drawn.

You ask…

At what point do we just ignore positive Covid diagnoses?

The answer for me is many moths ago…the moment I realized vaccines reduced my risk to flulike levels…

I realize the hospitals might get overrun short term. I even predicted such many pages back. I’m sorry if that happens.

It’s been two years. They’ve had time to prepare for the inevitable hospital shortages. And as much as it sucks that a virus causes hospital shortages… So does firing staff. So does arbitrary (10 day…oh we meant 5-day) quarantines, etc.

We never demanded that everyone run out and get a flu shot for a virus that killed up to tens of thousands yearly.

I'm pretty sure we determined that Covid, the thing that killed 850,000 people in the US in less than two years, even with some half-assed mitigation tactics, is not the flu.

Aamilj said:

And lets be honest here… That’s all we’re left debating. You think status quo risk is too much. I think status quo restrictions are too much.

Pretty much.

We're closing in on 300 pages of "Here's where I'd put the slider and why" and not one person in the discussion seems to have conceded a bit of ground between page 30 or so and 300. (seriously, if you have time, go read everyone's early responses compared to current ones - we're all saying the same **** two years later)

*shrug*

As long as there's an argument for caution ("If it saves just one life") there will be people calling for continued mitigation efforts and pushing on the slider.

As long as things aren't normal ("Muh freedoms") there will be people calling for a return to 2019 life and pulling on the slider.

Hey! Just two weeks to flatten the (COVID-19, Delta, Omicron) curve, right?

What are these restrictions you speak of? Because as I go out into the world, I don't really see any.

Has anyone ever done a breakdown of “with Covid” and “from Covid” for that 850,000 number? Even Fauci seems to understand that difference matters these days…

I’ll take it further than Fauci and ask how many life expectancy (beyond normal) years were lost?

There’s a lot more than the scary 850k number to look at for those concerned with nuance…

Regardless… I acknowledge that Covid has BEEN worse than the flu (duh) while simultaneously repeating…

The gross numbers were panic-inducing. The relative risk numbers were tolerable to a lot (most/many?)…particularly when presented by age group.

I’m damn close to stating as fact that Omicron risk is no worse than the flu for VACCINATED persons…given that every expert who has studied the NEW virus says the same…

I think it is important to note that the vast majority of the 850k came Pre-Omicron.

We’ve also now determined/established that up to “tens of thousands” Americans dying from respiratory viruses like the flu were accepted norm just 2 years ago…

That’s why I said…

We’re just debating about where that line should be drawn.

Clearly people getting sick and dying are not the issue. The issue is HOW MANY are dying in a specific period of time…? What is acceptable?

I’m fine with current Omicron levels of death and sickness...like I was fine with the flu outcomes pre-Covid.

Not because I don’t understand that “Other people exist and (I) affect them…” But because I’ve decided the damage caused by the “non-pharmaceutical interventions” are more damning to society than their benefit…taken in conjunction with the new knowledge that Covid isn’t nearly as risky as it used to be…particularly for the vaccinated.

I realize there are others like you and Andy who have a different opinion. I’m ok with that…

But I do want to note that when assigning a “selfishness” factor to blame (the ME argument)…that argument works in both directions IF you choose to go down that path of discrediting those you disagree with… As stated above…

I don’t for one second blame you and other people who argue for indefinite restrictions…

I’m not sure how you even assign a scorecard to one dead 90-year-old from Omicron versus one dead teenager from suicide upset that school is closed again…

I do know the argument is way more nuanced than flatly blaming those we disagree with for deaths that would/could happen regardless…

Just found out that my daughter was exposed the other day to another friend who tested positive. Her friend was vacationing at Disney (thanks, America's wang) and wasn't feeling well when she got back this Monday...upset stomach and sore throat were her only symptoms. The first friend who tested positive the week before Christmas had a high fever and flu-like symptoms. My daughter has had no symptoms and is scheduled for her second vaccination shot this afternoon. Thankfully she can still get it.

Jeff said:

If overall occupancy is going up, I'm pretty sure that's not because of an outbreak of broken bones.

Yes, because that's what I asked.

My question has nothing to do with bias, it was a genuine ask as to how serious these cases are that are requiring hospitalization. Because we continue to hear how Omicron is less severe, and just two days ago it was determined that 95% of new cases are the Omicron variant. Which, in my anecdotal experience, has shown nothing worse than flu-like symptoms. Even though it's not the flu. We know it's not the flu. We are well aware it's not the flu. But...not much worse than the flu. I'm wondering if maybe it's not possible to discuss this current variant without being cited past statistics on the first two variants.

Again, in my circle, no one I'm close to has had severe symptoms or required hospital visits, and cases are more common now than they were even a couple months ago. The biggest pain in the ass for us is having to stay home again for several days straight and enduring long, fastpassless waits to get tested.

What are these restrictions you speak of? Because as I go out into the world, I don't really see any.

You live in Florida where freedom still exists. Of course you aren’t seeing what those of us in blue states/areas face. My two best weeks in 2 years were spent in YOUR state on vacation…Orlando and Pensacola…the latter at the height of Covid fear…

Once my daughter graduates…my landing place is a no-brainer. I moved to Vegas years ago precisely because Nevada’s (it was down to Nevada and Florida) rugged individualism fit my idea of what America is and should be… I immigrated… NOT for this…

My kids lost a year of school. A year of sports. They still test weekly and wear useless cloth masks, etc. We play Covid theater every time we go out to eat, etc… Healthy kids test positive and continue to miss school and activities every week. My son’s basketball game is canceled TONIGHT because two healthy kids tested positive…etc…

We had a suicide in my kids high school parking lot!

Even my “blue” friends are fed up with the restrictions. We know that states like YOURS stayed open and frankly fared none the worse for it…

The ONLY thing that might save us is that new elections are coming up soon and the people will finally have a chance to let their frustrations be known…

I could totally hear "Stars and Stripes" playing when you said "freedom" in reference to Florida. 🙄

Aamilj said:

I’ll take it further than Fauci and ask how many life expectancy (beyond normal) years were lost?

That's easy. If anything the excess deaths likely mean Covid deaths were undercounted:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-to...0pjE-iNzKg

So you were or weren’t interested in discussing the restrictions those of us in blue states faced and continued to face? I gave you a whole list of restrictions you claim you “don’t really see…”

What are these restrictions you speak of? Because as I go out into the world, I don't really see any.

When you said this I assumed you were being sincere…?

Here's at least where I stand specifically with respect to Aamilj (and correct me if I'm wrong):

1) We couldn't disagree more on the efficacy of masks, distancing and non-pharmaceutical interventions (and also Facui's character) etc. Probably neither of us is going to change.

2) We're probably mostly in line on vaccinations.

3) We're probably similar on what you should actually do in real life - follow mandated restrictions

4) I disagree with the argument supplied (the one where ME was capitalized) even though it doesn't actually lead to different behavior. I think it's important to point out the hole in that line of thought because I live in abstract-town where thinking is as important as doing.

And FWIW, I've definitely had my views challenged and changed over the course of this thread. I'm not sure how far I've moved from my initial position and on what axes I've changed, but I have definitely changed my opinion on certain things. (Just for instance, I remember in the Delta wave when the case counts had a strong correlation with politics and when Aamilj predicted that it was more weather related and less politically related and northern states would see a rise in the winter. I disagreed, but he probably proved to be more correct than I was willing to admit.) And at the very least, I have been forced to carefully think through and refine my position so to me that has value.

I think that is a fair summation of our agreements and disagreements. And I hope those reading along the way found something useful with our discussion to date…

So what can't you do right now?

My kid can’t play basketball again in 2 hours. This is AFTER the entire junior season was taken from him too.

Andy:

As for masks...my take is a little more nuanced than I've presented on here. There are only so many hours in a day.

But I would quickly note... I don't dispute the idea that well-worn, well-fitting masks MAY help reduce transmission in enclosed spaces for a limited period...(i.e., less than 20 minutes).

I constantly read the studies related to masks...they are inconclusive at best...with those in support almost always (always?) falling in the "well it is best to act cautiously" camp.

I do dispute the practicality of the mask measures...AND opine that the negatives of masking (i.e., they make communication difficult, they make learning more difficult, etc.) make their implementation counterproductive at best...and abusive at worst.

Kids can't wear a well-fitting mask 7 hours a day any longer than Nancy Pelosi can wear a mask for 45 minutes to do her hair.

And in another attempt at humorous snark... I can't wait for Fauci et al. to show us a study proving the scientific effectiveness of the "mask up between bites" policy...

But if you are in the camp that thinks these cloth masks are of much (any?) practical use in the real world...it is appropriate to say we disagree on the efficacy of masks.