Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

I have no real desire to debate policy with you, but don't just make things up.

There’s nothing made up.

I said… Anyone can see that Sweden is no worse than Austria…etc.

I compared Austria with Sweden because they represent polar opposite responses. Austria has been one of the most repressive/restrictive European countries versus Sweden…regarded as the least repressive. Their population size is similar (10.4 million in Sweden vs. 9.0 million in Austria). The median age in Sweden is lower than in Austria…but close (41.1 vs. 44.4). The Swedish life expectancy is higher than in Austria (82.4 vs. 81.6 years). Vaccination rates are very similar in Sweden and in Austria (72% vs. 70%).

And yet in December, Austria overtook Sweden in terms of total Covid mortality.

In the midst of a discussion about whether or not non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) actually work or not. It seems that a direct comparison of the western country with the most NPIs versus the western country with the least NPIs is pertinent.

sws said:

It’s convinced me to stop eating bats.

Speak for yourself.

We should all be more like Ozzy.

TheMillenniumRider said:

So 5 because we need you to show up, somehow Covid is magically shortened to 5 days transmissible if you are needed to perform your job.

You can mock it all you want, but it's totally consistent. It was never black and white (at X days you're magically and instantly completely unable to transmit). Omicron is more transmissible (i.e. will cripple the economy more) and is less virulent. The slider of potential economic damage vs. potential health care shortage has moved. Shortening the quarantine time is exactly the appropriate response. Isn't that what "the right" has been arguing for the entire time?

For my risk analysis (for all the good it has done me...) I have been assuming contagion lasts 12 days and that the undercount is about 70%. By that estimate and the latest data from the State of Ohio, right now your odds of meeting someone in Ohio who is contagious and has not removed himself from the population are about 1:24, down from 1:19 on 1/6, but still some of the worst odds I've seen since this whole thing started. I figure I got nailed when the odds were still about 1:46. This is based on academic data that came out back in 2020, and while the guidelines have changed, from a risk management perspective I think there is value in retaining some consistency in the analysis I am doing.
OhioHealth kept me on their isolation protocol until 20 days after my first positive test, which seems excessive to me. (I'm actually back home now, BTW).

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

Omicron is more transmissible (i.e. will cripple the economy more) and is less virulent. The slider of potential economic damage vs. potential health care shortage has moved. Shortening the quarantine time is exactly the appropriate response. Isn't that what "the right" has been arguing for the entire time?

This is 100% fair and accurate in my opinion. Particularly the part about what “the right” has been arguing.

I’d word it a bit differently. I’d say it is a slider of “quality of life” versus “health mitigation.”

And we are way apart on where that slider should be… By “we” I mean some of us on this board and the gross “right vs. left” societal division that unfortunately exists.

You can mock it all you want, but it's totally consistent. It was never black and white (at X days you're magically and instantly completely unable to transmit).

”The right” has also argued “it was never black and white”…i.e. this has nothing to do with science…”the left” are just saying whatever they can (10-days quarantine anyone) to keep that slider way over on the “health mitigation” side. Which would be understandable IF there was clear and observable evidence that the “never black and white” stuff they called “science” actually achieved better results for “health mitigation.”

We are two years into the “the left” (and some on the right too) selling us what Dave calls “something”…

The most dangerous thing you can do in any situation is “something”, which unfortunately is really the only thing politicians know to do.…

…as REAL science!

Ten days quarantine was never “real science” any more than shutting down the grocery store at night was “real science.” “Mask between sips” is no more science than “14-days to flatten the curve” could be labeled science. The examples are endless.

You are correct. None of this is “black and white.” Which I read as “none of this is science.”

The “Vaxxed and Done” crowd are ready to move that slider all the way to “quality of life” side because we can see keeping that slider way over on the “health mitigation” side hasn’t improved “health mitigation” significantly anyhow…but it HAS decreased the “quality of life.”

P.S. This entire response is predicated on the understanding that vaccines work well enough to make the relative risk of moving that slider an easy choice…

OhioHealth kept me on their isolation protocol until 20 days after my first positive test, which seems excessive to me. (I'm actually back home now, BTW).

Congratulations on getting home.

Out of curiosity, what was the reason/science given to you justifying 20 days?

…never mind that my vaccine failed to keep me out of the hospital. On the other hand, I clearly got that virus from someone, probably someone who wasn’t immunized. I’m fine with “vaxxed and done” but that’s kind of predicated on the “vaxxed” part, where my State is presently only at 59% of those eligible and I don’t think that’s high enough, especially when we have 1:25 people running around sick.

—Dave Althoff, Jr.

I have my own covid story to share. Before the holidays my wife and I attended an extended family gathering at a restaurant. We only expected 6 people but there ended up being significantly more than that. Christmas Eve my wife gets a text. "So and so tested positive." This family got Covid early and one of them spent a few days in the hospital. We were scheduled to see my side of the family out of town the next morning so this was not convenient. We tested the next morning as planned and we were both negative but decided to postpone anyhow.

Fast forward to our week in Orlando.

We start to hear "so and so" who was at the gathering tested positive, "so and so" has a cold, etc. You get the idea. We were fine and had a great trip.

We get back to Pittsburgh and test negative before I drive my mom (she was watching our dog) home. My wife flies to CES and we are convinced she's bringing it back with her. I start to feel like I am getting sick. I know the feeling but I get the same damn feeling with anxiety so I workout pretty hard the next 2 days to shake it but decide to stay home from from our in office day.

Thursday I am definitely sick. I have a headache and some congestion but was able to work from home. Friday I wake up and have more of the same but a little worse with a cough. I called off work just because I can, test positive and play video games the whole day. My wife comes home from CES, tests negative the next 2 days while I continued to test positive. Someone she was at CES with tests positive. I only tested again out of curiosity really and even tried a test from the same box as my wife.

I got a PCR test today.

If I didn't have the rapid tests I would have thought I had a mild cold. I never even developed a fever. I was actually relieved when I saw the positive result on Friday.

Of course the anxiety doesn't quite here end because my wife has yet to develop any symptoms and my mom is coming back to watch our dog while we go skiing for the weekend and we have a trip to Colorado to ski in early February.

We're both in good health and "up to date" on our vaccinations.

Thought I'd share, I've always appreciated people sharing their experiences during this whole thing.

Expected that half of Europe will be infected with Omicron within the next 6-8 weeks.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/omicron-t...015_1.html

My kiddo got it. :-/
He's feeling okay, but our whole family (though vaxed) is on voluntary quarantine.

Ars has some stats around the hospital situation, and it's not good. National Guard helping out and crisis standards.

Well, that data aged quickly. DHHS said today that we've exceeded the hospitalization record set a year ago.

Aamilj said:

The “Vaxxed and Done” crowd are ready to move that slider all the way to “quality of life” side because we can see keeping that slider way over on the “health mitigation” side hasn’t improved “health mitigation” significantly anyhow…but it HAS decreased the “quality of life.”

How is "Vaxxed and Done", a perspective that explicitly ignores all factors other than vaccination status, not black and white? Just as the "we're X months into this, therefore any mitigative efforts are silly" argument is nonsensically black and white.

Time and vaccination status are not the only variables at play here. Beyond the fact that, according to some quick math, around 15% of the unvaccinated population are not eligible to get vaccinated, there are other considerations, including that we don't have a firm grasp on the risk Omicron presents to that ineligible-for-vaccines group, our hospitals are at or near crisis levels, every transmission is an opportunity for mutation, etc.

Thankfully Omicron seems to be milder, but getting gravely ill and/or dying are not the only significantly bad outcomes. Should parents of those vaccine-ineligible children, for example, have to assume an increased likelihood of their child developing diabetes so that people can use their own vaccination status as a license to disregard all mitigative responsibilities? Should we all have to assume the increased danger that comes with hospitals that have to turn away patients?

I am in no way suggesting we should revert to anything resembling spring 2020, that would be pretty ridiculous. But it's at least equally ridiculous for anyone to suggest that, because X months have passed, or that they themselves are vaccinated, any other mitigative efforts are useless or unnecessary.

djDaemon said:

...around 15% of the unvaccinated population are not eligible to get vaccinated...

Curious about this. Is it worded correctly?

Of the people unvaccinated, 15% of them are not eligible for the vaccine?

According to these sources (census.gov & NYTimes.com) about 15% of people are unvaccinated. So what you're saying is 15% of the 15% is ineligible. That's 2.25% of the population.

I'm not making a call or suggesting a stance...and I'm skipping a lot of contextual talk about the scenario, but in the name of brevity, in a nutshell, to sum up the idea...

How much should the 97.75% be expected to do to accomodate the 2.25%?

Gonch said a post or two ago:

As long as there's an argument for caution ("If it saves just one life") there will be people calling for continued mitigation efforts and pushing on the slider.

Is this that?

Aamilj said:

None of this is “black and white.” Which I read as “none of this is science.”

Not black and white doesn't mean not science. Not black and white means hard science.

But it's at least equally ridiculous for anyone to suggest that, because X months have passed, or that they themselves are vaccinated, any other mitigative efforts are useless or unnecessary.

This would make sense if the mitigation efforts demonstratively worked. I’m for vaccines because they work. I’m NOT for the NPIs because…(see the last few posts)…

I’m not against mitigation efforts because X months have passed. I’m against mitigation efforts because I’ve had X months to see the mitigations have been limited (at best) to completely useless (at worst). Two years is enough time for me to make a critical decision about what is and is not working.

*Moment to note that I follow the rules in place. I just think they’re stupid.

Our hospitals are breaking Covid records today with the vast majority of overcrowding occurring in the very states/cities where mitigation efforts (i.e. NPI use) have been the most stringent. New York and Vermont (et al) hospitals are not overcrowding today because the people there didn’t “restrict” themselves enough. These are the very states and people that have the highest mask use, vaccine passports, closed schools, concerned citizens, highest vax rates, etc.

It isn’t my fault their mitigation strategies failed and the virus virused.

I’m sincerely interested in how those defending continued use of NPIs explain away what seems so glaringly obvious to me…and frankly, I assume, to anyone who looks at the results with an unbiased eye. I too…wish these non-pharmaceutical-interventions (NPIs) had worked. They have not.

I’m not even sure what NPI anyone could possibly want MORE of at this time. If there is one that is working…show it…and of course I would be all for it! Otherwise…what Dave says certainly seems to apply…

The most dangerous thing you can do in any situation is “something”, which unfortunately is really the only thing politicians know to do.…

How is "Vaxxed and Done", a perspective that explicitly ignores all factors other than vaccination status, not black and white?

I think I answered this above. But the answer is we are TWO years into the pandemic. We have enough time and evidence to see what mitigation strategies have and have not worked. Vaccines worked… I’m ready to ignore all the stuff that failed to make a positive impact. It is not my fault all the “other factors” didn’t work like we hoped. I wish “washing our groceries” would have made a positive impact too.

Time and vaccination status are not the only variables at play here.

I’m not sure what you are alluding to with this statement. What variables are at play that you think New York City didn’t “restrict” enough?

If I’m misrepresenting what you are trying to say…I’m fine with being corrected… I’m even more than willing to change my mind if you, or anyone, can demonstrate the magic “variables” or “restrictions” that would have prevented today’s New York City…

I am in no way suggesting we should revert to anything resembling spring 2020, that would be pretty ridiculous.

On this we agree. So what restriction do you think New York City should have been doing this past month they weren’t already utilizing?

The Red Cross has declared a national blood crisis for the first time ever.

Lord Gonchar said:

How much should the 97.75% be expected to do to accomodate the 2.25%?

This depends on the circumstances. If we're talking during the summer, when transmission and positivity rates were low, kids weren't in school, etc., then nothing, really. But now, with unprecedented transmission and hospitals already in crisis mode (and getting worse)? I don't know, but I would say more than "nothing". And yet "nothing" is what some are arguing they should be expected to do.

Like I said, I'm not arguing in favor of another round of stay-at-home orders, or even anything close to that, but I think it's equally ridiculous to argue that things should be 100% back to normal under the circumstances we find ourselves in today.

Aamilj said:

I’m against mitigation efforts because I’ve had X months to see the mitigations have been limited (at best) to completely useless (at worst).

I mean, this is just demonstrably false, no matter how many times you type it out.