Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

In some sense I get where Aamilj and Gonch are coming from, anecdotal evidence aside. (A reminder that, just as breakthrough infection does not disprove vaccine efficacy, outbreaks in the presence of mitigation protocols does not disprove mirigation efficacy.)

Sadly, public health doesn’t work that way. “It’s on them” is not a thing because whatever is on them is also on health care workers, people who need to be in the hospital that they displace, and anyone else they infect including vaccinated people who actually get symptoms or worse.

Is mitigation, especially in the face of resistance/blatant disregard the solution? Maybe not. If enough people are just going to ignore mitigation, then why bother? Frustrating but realistic. But vaccine availability does not equal “pandemic over” and a quick trip to a hospital or nursing home will tell you why.

Edit: "Yeah, what Jeff said."

I have heard that Cleveland Clinic Ohio has 1000 medical professionals out due to Covid (or on Covid protocol) while they also have 1000+ patients in hospital with Covid. The reason we need to continue to mitigate this is because the health care system could collapse if we don't. If your loved one can't get proper care for an emergency that isn't Covid-related then Covid has created a problem for you and your loved one.

For the love of God...just do something for your fellow man. Why is that so hard for people these days?

Aamilj said:

And, we may basically agree that at some point we have to start living with the virus…

It is past time for me to worry about those who chose not to vaccinate.

Emotionally, sure, I get it. Practically, as Jeff and Andy are getting at above, I don't know how this works. Saying "that's on you" goes against a lot of the principles of medicine, and isn't anything we say to anyone else making bad choices - people who skip the flu vaccine, smokers, people who eat at McDonalds, people who drive without seatbelts on.

And where do you draw the line? No ICU? No hospital admittance? No access to regeneron? No doctor's visits for care? No doctor's visits for diagnosis? As a matter of public health, whatever you or I may feel, I don't see how this works.

(And just to be clear about where I stand: there are a lot of people being misled by television, by YouTube, by elected officials. However gullible I may think they are being, I believe they deserve care.)

I say that respectively…as I support everyone’s right to choose what they put in their bodies.

Eh - I'm not willing to die (or give up my own freedumbs) on that hill. Particularly, when there's no consistency to the way people live this out - when they're drawing the line at widely researched and tested vaccines but demanding experimental treatments and, you know, eating at McDonalds.

You know who isn't choosing what they put in their bodies? Unvaxxed people in the ICU who are under sedation and getting every treatment doctors can throw at them to keep their dumb asses alive.

outbreaks in the presence of mitigation protocols does not disprove mirigation efficacy

I don’t assume mitigation efforts don’t work. I also don’t assume they do.

I think the evidence is mixed at best with a slight lean toward useless. But that is presumption.

It is presumption based on Cornell et al, California versus Florida (one example), and a whole slew of markedly different restriction-based (or lack thereof) policies that have led us to this day… Where everyone is catching Covid again regardless of restriction status in their surrounding communities.

My only reason for discussing this “mitigation/restriction” branch is…

Cycle has been cases rise, restrictions put in place. Cases go down and restrictions are relaxed. Cases then go up and restrictions put back into place. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

I was just challenging what appears to be a default assumption that restrictions work. That restrictions are responsible for cases going down rather than the cyclical nature of viral infection…

I don’t believe this to be the case.

you seem stuck on the idea that individuals don't affect others.

Of course individuals affect others. I’m stuck on the idea that practically speaking…in this case…there is nothing I can do about other’s choices. My scope of influence is protecting myself and my family. I’ve done that based on the best available evidence.

That evidence being that vaccines CLEARLY help…and all this other stuff (masks, daily health checks, vaccine passports, etc) is Swiss Cheese…

However gullible I may think they are being, I believe they deserve care

Me too…

I accept that other’s bad decisions might fill up the hospital and thereby negatively impact me when my heart attack comes and there are no doctors available. I accept that this sucks. I accept that there is not a damn thing I can do about this…and a whole bunch of other stupid decisions people make…

I wish policy decisions would accept this reality too… So we can all get back to living.

wahoo skipper said:

For the love of God...just do something for your fellow man. Why is that so hard for people these days?

Merry ****ing Christmas!

Jeff said:

You aren't in the willfully ignorant crowd, thankfully, but you seem stuck on the idea that individuals don't affect others.

Not at all (and this is our main point of disconnect).

I don't think you can change or force the behavior (obviously, we've seen it) so we have to accept it as part of the equation.

You prefer to accept it with a "safer" route while I think the "abundance of caution" is no longer necessary. The amount of people doing "the right thing" that wll be affected by those doing "the wrong thing" isn't large enough to be a concern to me. I'd have pulled the trigger by now.

In regards to your anecdote, my experience is exactly the opposite, I had no problem quickly scheduling a procedure at the local hospital and getting it done just last week. It's a complete non-issue for me. And even if it weren't, I still value the normalcy more and think we're in a place that complete normalcy is possible for the vast majority. The issues you describe are rare and it makes no sense to me to keep kicking this can down the road based on "what ifs" and the minority.

That's all. I don't expect to change your mind(s) and you're certainly not changing mine. I'm like Mike - I feel like I'm in the middle. Extreme caution is just as detrimental to normalcy as extreme indifference is...and both sides are equally frustrating (and convinced they're "right"). Compared to many of you, my life has been mostly "normal" for the past two years. But much like "sliders" was the first part of the conversation, I feel like "different paths" is the key to this part.

In a nutshell, I shouldn't have to make concessions at the supermarket because you had to wait to get a colonoscopy anymore. And that's not pandemic fatigue, it's the reality of 62% of people already vaccinated and another 30%-ish not ever going to be.

And that's why I'm judgey toward you, because your low expectations for human potential are exactly the reason an "advanced" society still has hunger, is killing its planet and still discriminates on the basis of race, gender and other factors. It's like my kid when he says he can't open a bottle. It excuses him from trying.

Me (and my ilk) are single handedly stunting the growth of an advanced society in terms of hunger and climate and human injustices because my tolerace for stupidity in the face of a pandemic level virus is higher than yours.

You do realize how insane you sound?

If we only aim for mediocrity we are bound to achieve it. Are we going to get everyone vaccinated? Certainly not. But, I don't think that means we just throw up our hands. I'm listening to the health care professionals and they are begging us to not give up. Every new vaccination helps.

You're reinforcing my point, Gonch. It's not insane because I'm not talking about just you. When a bunch of just yous collectively think that way, it's the reason we don't move forward.

I get it, trying to achieve scope for positive change is hard, which is exactly why it requires everyone to participate in it.

I wonder if there's some parsing to be done here around what we even mean by "mitigation protocols." Gonch, are you saying we should just go back to 2019 life and let the cards lay where they fall (or whatever the metaphor is)? Jeff, I'm curious what mitigation strategy you'd suggest because I think we tend to align philosophically, but we might not align in detail.

-Keeping kids home from school is an absolute no for me. We had a bunch of mental health issues in my family last year and I'm 100% convinced they were exacerbated by virtual school. I think there are a lot of risks associated with sending kids to school, but they are far outweighed by the benefits.

-Cancelling college classes, closing movie theaters, shows, etc. seems like a very small band aid. If people are going to eat indoors, I'm not sure how any of these other things matter.

-Travel bans are also an absolute no for me because they are stupid and don't actually do anything.

-Quarantines after you test positive seem reasonable to me. They are quite disruptive, but the alternative is just accepting that this thing is going to spread to everyone and not caring that different health care facilities will be overrun.

-Mask seems like a no-brainer. In general, the cost is low and the value is high. I know there are mental health costs associated with it, but it's pretty easy to do and does a lot of good.

-Vaccine requirements also seem like a no-brainer, but I get where people would disagree (and then I get to say they are demonstrably wrong). We've required vaccines for participation in society for decades. Every serious politician and pundit has a vaccine. Even the Fox News people who keep saying "it's your right to choose" have it and know it helps. Nobody has shown any detrimental effects of the vaccine. And if everyone actually got a vaccine, this thing would actually be over.

My concern is not the what or how for mitigation, it's the why it requires everyone to be a part of it. It's the why we need to care.

Jeff said:

I get it, trying to achieve scope for positive change is hard, which is exactly why it requires everyone to participate in it.

You're talking about a larger range of issues than just the pandemic at this point, but yeah, I don't understand expecting to change behavior among a large swath of the population of the world that we've seen demonstrated time and time again across a variety of scenarios.

To me, expecting that to change seems like an excercise in futility. Hell, we know it is. So rather than getting our panties bunched that everyone doesn't see every situation exactly like I do, I choose to play the hand. Makes more sense to me to spend my energy adjusting my approach around those people than constantly butting heads and getting frustrated.

ApolloAndy said:

I wonder if there's some parsing to be done here around what we even mean by "mitigation protocols." Gonch, are you saying we should just go back to 2019 life and let the cards lay where they fall (or whatever the metaphor is)?

I feel like I'm supposed to say yes to this. Or that your setup is predicated on it, at least.

And yeah, I'm going to.

At the beginning it was largely a pandemic of the elderly and compromised. And in the face of the unknown, little in the ways of solutions and a general sense of needing to find the path, it made perfect sense to go to decent lengths to protect those people.

Now it's largely a pandemic of the unvaccinated. And again, those are exactly the people we're all accomodating. There's literally no reason for plexiglass barriers or me to mask up for a few second until I sit down in a restaurant or whatever at this point. And that doesnt mean I don't care for those around me or that I'm selfish or whatever - in fact, that's a horrible argument. I'm the guy who has done everything asked, expected and suggested and still I'm being told I'm selfish because I feel like I can't change those that are truly selfish and, yes, am willing to let the cards fall where they may for those people.

As long as there is an option that promotes caution, there's going to be an argument for taking that option. At some point on the slider, I no longer feel a personal responsibility to those that don't have their own sense of personal responsibility. We're well past that point.

Nothing you guys argue even comes close to making change my assessment of the situation. It's as "lobsters coming out of your ears" to me as I imagine my take seems to you. But I'm not "wrong" any more than you guys. It is incredibly frustrating to see a few of you constantly talk down anyone that falls short of your standards of good citizenry. Which is exactly why so many people dropped out of the conversation. Those of us still around taking up more moderate stances are just gluttons for punishment at this point, I guess. This going around is circles is mostly unappealing and I only feel the need to jump in occasionly when it feels like the pedestals are getting a little too high again.

Edit: This is in response to Jeff.

But surely there's a spectrum (slider, if you will) of responses. I think it's short sighted to only look at one's own circumstance to calibrate that slider either way, and I can understand how restauranteurs might view protocol proposals differently than teachers who might respond differently than desk jockeys.

This actually feels a lot like a tragedy of the commons (I think I mentioned that somewhere in the pages and pages of this thread) where it's in everyone's self interest for other people to do what's good for the community and then for them to do what's good for them. As much of an optimist as I am, It's not a surprise to me at all that "good will" never gets us beyond that and regulation is required. Especially when we clearly don't share a common sense of identity, purpose, or value (or hell, even a common understanding of reality and facts). It's a sad reality that the people who will follow mask mandates and avoid gatherings and stay home when sick are the people who are vaccinated and unlikely to spread.

Lord Gonchar said:

I feel like I can't change those that are truly selfish and, yes, am willing to let the cards fall where they may for those people.

I'm curious if you agree that it's not this simple and that anything we do does have an impact on some elderly vaccinated or immunocompromised or allergic to vaccine person somewhere.

I think there's a very good argument that at some point the impact is low enough and the number of affected is low enough that "oh well" is an appropriate response, and I'm sure Carlin or Chapelle or whoever would have a great time making that argument, but I don't know if I have seen you acknowledge that.

And if we agree that that point exists, I think it's much more subjective to determine where and whether we've hit it (not demonstrably right or wrong).

Lord Gonchar said:

But I'm not "wrong" any more than you guys. It is incredibly frustrating to see a few of you constantly talk down anyone that falls short of your standards of good citizenry. Which is exactly why so many people dropped out of the conversation. Those of us still around taking up more moderate stances are just gluttons for punishment at this point, I guess. This going around is circles is mostly unappealing and I only feel the need to jump in occasionly when it feels like the pedestals are getting a little too high again.

Nothing really to add...just quoting because I feel like it needs to be reiterated in bold and italics and font size 48. I feel like I might quote it again some time later when the conversation could use it as a refresher (would that be Gonchforwarding a Gonchback?).

I'm the guy who has done everything asked, expected and suggested and still I'm being told I'm selfish because I feel like I can't change those that are truly selfish and, yes, am willing to let the cards fall where they may for those people.

I couldn’t like this response more. Going on two years now…it is simply over for me…absent a scary new variant. The fact Omicron is literally being compared to a head cold makes ANY discussion of further “mitigations” beyond ridiculous circa 2021 TO ME.

Furthermore, as much as I dislike the choices of fellow Americans who refuse to vaccinate…I much more resent policy makers who ask ME to mask up; ask my kids to skip their sports; etc…in order to protect the very group of people who haven’t lifted a finger.

I think there's a very good argument that at some point the impact is low enough and the number of affected is low enough that "oh well" is an appropriate response

I’d argue that this happened the moment we realized the vaccines work at mitigating this bug to flu symptoms or less in the overwhelming majority of cases.

it's not this simple and that anything we do does have an impact on some elderly vaccinated or immunocompromised or allergic to vaccine person somewhere.

Society cannot make decisions based on the weakest among us. We should certainly try and protect and accommodate the vulnerable…but the vulnerable shouldn’t be at Universal Studios on Christmas Eve… Society marches on…

Mask seems like a no-brainer. In general, the cost is low and the value is high.

I again respectfully disagree with a baseline assessment that masks work. For every study you show it works, I can find one that says they don’t. At BEST it is a wash…

Ironically NPR literally posted this on twitter 4 hours ago… I will cut and copy directly so as to not mislead…

If you're still using a cloth mask, it's time to up your game. Experts say to block omicron, you should upgrade to an N95 or similar high-filtration mask.

Does NPR realize that they are now admitting that 98% of all the masks that have been used to date (including 99.9% on kids in schools) are totally useless? Or do they just not care and hope we don’t notice? Or are they going with “Omicron is somehow magically different in sneaking through tiny holes?”

Respectfully…my intention is not to convince you masks DON’T WORK. I’m not pompous enough to think I EVER COULD…and I don’t mind if you believe some of the studies and people that say they do work.

But I AM trying to show you that “masks work” is simply NOT a default position worthy of going unchallenged. There is plenty of evidence and doublespeak (see NPR quote above) to raise red flags…at a minimum.

Gonch said “Now it's largely a pandemic of the unvaccinated. And again, those are exactly the people we're all accomodating. There's literally no reason for plexiglass barriers or me to mask up for a few second until I sit down in a restaurant or whatever at this point. And that doesnt mean I don't care for those around me or that I'm selfish or whatever - in fact, that's a horrible argument. I'm the guy who has done everything asked, expected and suggested and still I'm being told I'm selfish because I feel like I can't change those that are truly selfish and, yes, am willing to let the cards fall where they may for those people.”

100% THIS.

Safe to say I just walked in on the Festivus airing of grievances.