Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

sirloindude said:
I interpret that as a temporary measure, not a permanent change.

Of course, eventually there will be a vaccine and herd immunity. Until then this may be the new normal. Maybe not and all one will need is a MAGA hat. 🤣

SteveWoA said:

bunch of crap mitigating the global pandemic

if you think the numbers are that infinitesimally small then waltz your ass to Elmhurst hospital in Queens and start shaking hands with everyone in line to get into the ER.

You're missing the most important part, the virus is just now getting to places (e.g. Hillbilly South) , and so they're on the front edge of this. Like they're in the first 14-21 days of introduction to a population. Those numbers are going to skyrocket.

All these folks saying this crap are missing the big point. Whatever the death rates are (reported or actual), they have been to this point mitigated by the ability of the health care systems to absorb the load and give treatment to those who need it, including ICU, intubation and ventilation. As soon as a pandemic swamps the system, ventilators run out, etc, then the deaths hockey stick up in a logarithmic expansion. And then the people who had normally treatable, non COVID issues, (strokes, cardiac, etc) die because there is no capacity to provide emergency services.

When we're converting convention centers and Central Park to true "field hospitals" how can you effing minimize this to 6 decimals of a percent? Yes China's number may be that low, because a) the reported deaths are almost certainly underreported by several orders of magnitude, and b) they utilized the full force of an authoritarian state to keep people in their homes; full CCTV surveillance, stopping public transit, blocking roads with mounds of dirt, Drones, public shaming, etc. They didn't allow exemptions of this for "religious services", and other bullcrap All of which we aren't doing here.

Going to snapshot your comments, because they will NOT age well.

CreditWh0re said:

Going to snapshot your comments, because they will NOT age well.

Cool, man. We can report back in six months and continue the pissing contest then, I suppose?

CreditWh0re said:
Whatever the death rates are (reported or actual), they have been to this point mitigated by the ability of the health care systems to absorb the load and give treatment to those who need it, including ICU, intubation and ventilation. As soon as a pandemic swamps the system, ventilators run out, etc, then the deaths hockey stick up in a logarithmic expansion.

If I recall correctly it was said on here that Italy ran into exactly this problem? However the math still gave a very small overall result.

CreditWh0re said:
When we're converting convention centers and Central Park to true "field hospitals" how can you effing minimize this 6 decimals of a percent?

Some very simple math actually, (Number of cases reported/total country population). I didn't do the death calculations but they are even smaller. Not sure why this upsets you so much.

CreditWh0re said:
Yes China's number may be that low, because a) the reported deaths are almost certainly underreported by several orders of magnitude, and b) they utilized the full force of an authoritarian state to keep people in their homes, full CCTV, Drones, public shaming, etc.

I can only work with the data provided, China's percentage was much smaller than Italy, exponentially smaller actually. So they could have very well misreported, their total population is however much much larger than most countries. Regardless, all the countries which are, "past the peak, flattened the curve," etc all have extremely small numbers based on the current data reported.

SteveWOA said:
Mind you, there are many who have, or had it, who were not tested and won't be apart of the confirmed case statistic.

So these numbers could in fact be even smaller. I did not change or alter any of the reported data to account for this possibility. I see above where you added a 10x multiplier to the numbers you calculated, I wasn't going to attempt to speculate in any way, however I did find articles and data that does state infection rates could be 5x-10x higher than reported. This is apparently a "stealth" virus that can be transmitted with the hosts not always knowing they carry it.

Until its on their front door, the arguement will only be a bunch of theorectical data points for some.

I've watch the level of seriousness in the NY suburbs change over the past few weeks. The way people have respected the restrictions. Similar to the changing dynamic of to this thread, but in real physical time. The grocery store... whose on the street: the situation is definitely direly different then a week ago, then a week before that.

When I go on a solo trail run the same route I've take always taken 3x a week I now see five huge field hospital tents being staged next to the convention center.

SteveWoA said:

CreditWh0re said:

Going to snapshot your comments, because they will NOT age well.

Cool, man. We can report back in six months and continue the pissing contest then, I suppose?

Steve, your posts are why I listen to advice from people who are experts at this (not media talking heads), and not people like you. Thanks for giving me that reminder of perspective every time you post.

I don't understand the cognitive dissonance it takes to downplay what's going on. There's nothing theoretical about this. About half of my coworkers live in NYC, and if you can't otherwise read, it's not a good scene. I said a month ago it would be the first place in the US to get extra scary, because math. Look at the broad infection rates (per capita) now in the American south, especially in the New Orleans, southwest Georgia, Columbia SC, and the middle of nowhere Arkansas. Those are the places they didn't take it seriously, and some of those areas are pretty rural. Those are places that are lucky to have hospitals with 40 beds total.

Even more strange is this bizarre argument that many cases go undetected and aren't counted. Holy crap, how does that make anything better? That's worse, because now asymptomatic people are spreading it, and the percentage that die doesn't change.

And if you're looking for the per capita numbers, NYT has been including them for some time:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

That's 677 people per 100k in NYC, if you're playing along at home, and it's probably much higher because those with more moderate symptoms (including a member of this site) are not likely to get tested because of the risk they impose on others. It's worse on Long Island, despite lower population density as you get further out.

Wanna know how I know I'm reading posts on a forum full of complete poindexters?

We're puffing our chests at each other using math.

There’s been a quarrel amongst New Yorkers that started when city people hightailed it to their other homes in surrounding counties. The folks in the Hamptons said “stay out” but they showed up anyway, spreading the virus while they emptied out the high end markets.
The final tell will be about density. Yesterday? maybe the day before, AOC pointed out that black and brown people are taking the hardest hit. I’d imagine that’s true- the hot spots tend to be in areas that have people in tight quarters, particularly those that are under educated and underserved. Then, on the other hand, there’s that ski resort town in Idaho that has one of the highest concentrations of infections in the nation. And all due to an annual ski/snowboard outing that draws a lot of people and went on as planned anyway.
The key, folks, is not to gather. Anywhere. It seems like a million years ago that the Arnold was cancelled in Columbus and many of us said “isn’t that a bit unnecessary and premature?” Turns out no, we might’ve done people all around the world a great big favor.
Yours, reporting from home, as usual.

Jeff said:

Even more strange is this bizarre argument that many cases go undetected and aren't counted. Holy crap, how does that make anything better? That's worse, because now asymptomatic people are spreading it, and the percentage that die doesn't change.

True, the mortality rate is the mortality rate. The mortality rate is the number of infected people who die, typically represented as a percentage. Now our death count is, I would presume, quite accurate. However, our infected population is a huge question mark, and without a reasonably accurate count of that I can only speculate as to what the true mortality rate actually is. If my true infected population is way higher than I know about, then the mortality rate is going to be much less than what is currently calculated.

Tekwardo said:

Steve, your posts are why I listen to advice from people who are experts at this (not media talking heads), and not people like you. Thanks for giving me that reminder of perspective every time you post.

Exactly, you SHOULD listen to experts. Who the hell takes medical advice from a bunch of randos on the internet?

First of all, I'm not telling anyone to take my advice (what advice did I give, anyway? I just shared some observations at best). But this is a discussion forum full of different opinions, education, backgrounds and beliefs. So people should not get butt hurt when others don't exactly agree with their exact stance on a topic. This topic is nothing more than break room banter at it's finest.

At the end of the day a bunch of people will be wrong on what this will become, while others will be right. Life moves on. Given you can't escape this issue at the moment, what is wrong for people to offer varying levels of perspective?

Fasten your seat belts and get ready for the ride. When it's all over, we can all reflect on this event and learn from it moving forward, or something.

On a side note, for an interesting read, a doctor who spent a portion of his career as a molecular virologist did a series of posts on viruses on another forum I frequent which is quite interesting to read through.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1443947&sid=40...6e1a6ae045

Cheers!

I don’t know if has changed yet but a one point only those dying in hospitals were reported in the official counts, not elsewhere such as nursing homes. Also those that died but did not have a positive test we’re not counted and they were not testing the dead.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/will-we-ever-know-covid-19s-real-death-toll

Josh Marshall has a fascinating story on just that, Cargo. Actual deaths in Italy are higher than baseline "normal' deaths, plus reported COVID-19 deaths. The math doesn't add up, and by that I mean, the numbers are higher.

No, but what you’ve BEEN doing is coming in with your (decidedly) flawed math and condescendingly saying “meh, and you shouldn’t believe the hype”.

A friend of mine with a PhD in a relate field has given me sound explanations and advice. Several of my friends in the medical field are all telling me things from an objective POV.

What you seem to demand that people accept from your opinion is not in any way what the people who know what they’re talking about are saying. But you seem overly determined to prove...something. That something is different than any rational person with a background that would give them more insight that what you’ve shown.

Link to whichever articles back up your point, but I’ve yet had one person with experience in this day anything remotely similar to whatever snake oil you’re pushing.

And BTW, there’s a large difference in opinions about things on a coaster message board, and what seems to be opinions on how people should handle things in the real world from people that aren’t educated on the subject.

It is my opinion that we’re in this situation because of several failures (some intentional, some due to incompetence) of several government agencies. And ultimately we don’t have the data, even the smart people, to say anything other than ‘this is objectively bad and now we MUST do some very tough things’.

While I’m the first to say that’s an overreach by the government, our Government was out a month ago saying like a miracle, it’ll be gone by April when it’s warm.

Meanwhile it’s April and thousands of people have died. That’s at best ill informed and at worst deliberate, but it’s most likely just gross negligence.

SteveWoA said:

First of all, I'm not telling anyone to take my advice (what advice did I give, anyway? I just shared some observations at best). But this is a discussion forum full of different opinions, education, backgrounds and beliefs. So people should not get butt hurt when others don't exactly agree with their exact stance on a topic. This topic is nothing more than break room banter at it's finest.

At the end of the day a bunch of people will be wrong on what this will become, while others will be right. Life moves on. Given you can't escape this issue at the moment, what is wrong for people to offer varying levels of perspective?

So I don't know what your level of compliance is, but I do know that there are lots of people in general and public officials in particular using their non-scientific perspective of "Enh. I don't know about this. .000000X% seems like an awfully small number" to ignore recommendations, leading to more people getting sick and dying. If one complies with the recommendations regardless of their beliefs, good on them. If one does not, they are killing people. The virus doesn't care what they think.

If you want to know per capita figures, you can find them here:
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

We're around 4th or 5th with 836 cases per million and Spain has 2500 and Italy has 2000. We're about 10th in per capita deaths at 21 deaths per million.

But comparing this to flu is not accurate. We've never had the kind of exponential growth with the flu that we've seen with corona virus. I teach high school math. I teach exponential functions every day. I am still a little shell shocked that it actually works the way the math predicts. I distinctly remember the day that the case count jumped from 1.1k to 1.6k (according to the WHO dashboard) and San Jose got put on shelter in place and thinking, "This is kind of overreacting...but on the other hand exponential growth...but seriously on the first hand, for 1.6k cases nationwide we're going to close a county of over a million people? I mean, 500 people got it yesterday. I bet more people had car major accidents." Exponential growth seems to be nothing until it is everything and that transition happens very, very quickly.

There's a good episode of the podcast Radio Lab about that. In it they do the following thought exercise: a guy has a shed in his back yard which doubles in size every day. In about 5 days it's the size of his house. Nobody cares at all. By day 12 it's about the size of a city block. Most people don't care. He could probably tell the local police department, but they have more important things to do than pay attention to some crazy guy raving about his exponentially growing shed. By day 31 it's New Jersey. By day 42 you're the US. By day 47 you're the land area of the Earth. The first fifteen days you go from a shed to a neighborhood and barely anybody noticed. The last fifteen days you go from New Jersey to Earth.

You keep referring to the fact that the virus is currently affecting such a small fraction of the population, much smaller than the flu. But the case rate and the death rate continue to march on. Yesterday, we confirmed 23k new cases across the country. In a week, we will be confirming 54k cases per day. A week after that, we will be confirming 127k cases PER DAY (we seem to be bending the curve a bit on this one so I'm basing this on the current case growth rate of 1.13x per day). The death rate is currently 21.5 per million (compared to ~100 for the season flu). If the death rate continues as it has (it has been a fairly steady march of 1.25x per day) then in one week the number of deaths will be 70 per million. A week later 250 per million. The week after that 900 per million. Somewhere in there will include the inability of the health care system to care for patients with corona virus or heart attacks or strokes.

You are correct to say the numbers are minuscule right now. Sure, some celebrities have gotten it and there are some gruesome scenes in some select hospitals and areas, but right now it is true that the case count and mortality rates are way smaller than the flu and the vast majority of people haven't been affected in a meaningful way by the virus itself. But in two weeks we will see some scary s#!t that the flu couldn't even come close to touching, and by then it will be much, much, much too late to come back to today and say, "I guess we weren't over reacting." I just hope and pray that the choices we're making today avoid that scenario entirely. Then we can all come back and make fun of each other for burning down our sheds when they were the size of the back yard.

Lord Gonchar said:

Wanna know how I know I'm reading posts on a forum full of complete poindexters?

We're puffing our chests at each other using math.

It's not the size of the load that counts. It's the rate of growth.

Looks like FUN is possibly calling it quits for 2020, or at least hinting that 2020 will be an extremely abbreviated season. The asterisk about Scary Farm makes it seem like they are shooting for that, if not for a summer season.

Thank you to our current #KnottsBerryFarm Season Passholders for their continued patience and support. Given the uncertainty around our parks reopening we want to share some important updates to the 2020 Season Passholder benefits:
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2020 Season Passes and purchased 2020 Season Pass Add-On Products (if applicable) will be valid for the remainder of 2020 when our park is able to reopen plus all of the 2021 season.
.
We have also automatically suspended monthly billing as of today, April 4, 2020, and will continue to do so while the park is closed.

*Scary Farm Pass Add-On will be valid during 2020 only.

ApolloAndy said:

Then we can all come back and make fun of each other for burning down our sheds when they were the size of the back yard.

Is that what Cheryl was doing with her SheShed? So it WAS Arson! I knew it

CreditWh0re said:

ApolloAndy said:

Then we can all come back and make fun of each other for burning down our sheds when they were the size of the back yard.

Is that what Cheryl was doing with her SheShed? So it WAS Arson! I knew it

I have no idea what you're referencing, but....uh...."High five!" ;)