Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

OhioStater said:

Now imagine that same trend in changes of adult behaviors all across our country, with the enormous amount of people who never have and never will take any of this pandemic seriously mixed in purposely doing stuff just because they can.

There's your wave.

But why would would it happen simultaneously across states and countries that have been behaving very differently for very different amounts of time?

wahoo skipper said:

I don't think it is defiance or intent to be wreckless. I think it is just carelessness. I think it is the same condition where we all say texting while driving is dangerous yet everyone is texting while driving.

I don't know how it took so long, but it wasn't until yesterday that I connected pandemic regulations to the Tragedy of the Commons. The incentive of the individual in most cases is to serve self interest and do whatever benefits them individually, but that leads to a terrible result for the whole. Thus, voluntary participation in the mutually beneficial behavior will favor the self serving / ignorant at the expense of the cooperative / informed which will eventually degenerate into no voluntary participation. Regulation with enforcement is neccesary to have any kind of participation.

I maximize my benefit when I convince everyone else to preserve the commons, but then graze my cows on it.
I maximize my benefit when I convince everyone else to put down their phone when they drive, but then talk on mine when I drive.
I maximize my benefit when I convince everyone else to stay home, but then to go play ultimate frisbee in the park.

Without mutuality, regulation, and enforcement, everyone will think this way and self interest will destory the greater good.

Biden COVID Adviser Likens CDC’s Holiday Guidance To ‘Best Ways’ To ‘Drive Drunk’

Not only does the article title tie together our driving and COVID conversations, but it's another case of an expert or study saying exactly what we said around here already.

Gonch said 3 days ago:

If you think the goal should be to save as many lives as possible at any cost, the US response is probably frustrating.

If you think the goal is normality and freedom at any cost, the US response is probably frustrating.

And I think right there lies the problem. We sort of half committed. With the slider in the middle it's not far enough in any direction to make very many people happy with the result.

Yay compromise!

Dr. Osterholm says in the article:

“I think we just really have to tell the American public in hard language what’s happening here,” Osterholm said. “And far too often I think we’ve tried to, you might say, split the middle.”

The whole tone of the article and what Olsterholm is saying is exactly what I was arguing back here about which shoes to wear once you've decided to stand in traffic.

Gonch said:

We're standing in the middle of the road....during rush hour...with no protective gear...and closing our eyes...

...and then debating and getting heated over which pair of shoes might get us out of the way of the oncoming semi the quickest.

At that point, debating sensible flat vs basektball shoe seems to be missing the point as much as debating mask vs face shield does.

Dr. Osterholm says:

I have a real problem with the CDC’s recommendation with what to do over the holiday period. It’s nuanced, it’s basically saying, ‘Don’t get together, but if you are going to get together do these things.’

That’s like telling somebody, ‘Don’t drive drunk, but if you do drive drunk, these are the best ways to do it.’

Full disclosure. I'm not an expert. I just say what they do before they do. 😉

The (elementary) school protocols that Kevin outlined are exactly what we've got here as well. In fact, lunch sounds totally depressing, two kids at each table, facing the same direction, not allowed to talk. No classes ever co-mingle. I mean, it's as strict as hospital protocol.

Florida today: Over 11,000 cases for the first time, if I'm not mistaken. Thanksgiving effect is in full swing. Back to the low risk of serious illness in young people. I understand that and I don't deny it. The numbers speak for themselves.

But, case in point: Thanksgiving celebration and one of my people have a family gathering. Brother from college is in town. Grandma lives at my employee's house along with my employee's 11 year old. The brother brought Covid home with him. (When I was that age I just brought my girlfriend). Bro' gives Covid unknowingly to his niece and his mother. My employee isn't positive...yet...but it is exactly why we DO need to take what is happening with young people serious. I'm hoping Grandma is going to be ok...but she is at risk.

Now, there is nothing government could have done to prevent the above but perhaps talk straight about all of this since the beginning, be brutally blunt with the American people, and be consistent in messaging. We have not done any of that well.

Lord Gonchar said:

Biden COVID Adviser Likens CDC’s Holiday Guidance To ‘Best Ways’ To ‘Drive Drunk’

...Dr. Osterholm says:

I have a real problem with the CDC’s recommendation with what to do over the holiday period. It’s nuanced, it’s basically saying, ‘Don’t get together, but if you are going to get together do these things.’

That’s like telling somebody, ‘Don’t drive drunk, but if you do drive drunk, these are the best ways to do it.’...

Personally I liken it more to high school sex ed class where you're told abstinence is best but we know half of you will do it anyway so at least do this for protection if you do sort of thing.

Osterholm wants to lock everything down for 4-6 weeks and pay people to stay home, businesses to close, etc.

I drive a lot, especially in this pandemic world. Like 25k this year. Most of which was driving solo for work. Yet I only got pulled over for speeding when I have my wife traveling in the car with me (I swear!). It happened twice this year.... Which I've attributed to engaging in conversation which I usually tend to do with any passenger. Less ability to anticipate the cops. Less attention to speed creep. ....There's my data point on that conversation.

Now excuse me, I must go and get back to my defensive driving course.

GoBucks89 said:

Osterholm wants to lock everything down for 4-6 weeks and pay people to stay home, businesses to close, etc.

I don't think they'll go that far for the simple fact that people won't do it anyway

Lots of talk here about the strict protocols in place in K-12, especially in K-5 schools. But we need to remember those aren’t the only schools that started up in September.

The academic year started in September. Along with it comes lots of other interactions and the exponential growth of lots of people’s social bubbles. Athletic contests, house parties, even moving in with roommates... I am guessing that schools must have had something to do with accelerating the growth in cases that in Ohio shows an inflection point right around September 4. The only explanation that truly does make sense is the start of school, and I think the real issue isn’t K-5, but rather 9-20+.

Speaking of inflection points, it really looks like Ohio hit another one on or about November 16, when the case count hit what appears to be the start of a plateau. Our highest case count day was November 30, but the 7-day average has been dropping. No thanks to the Governor’s “pack the restaurants and stores early” curfew, extended today specifically to cancel New Year’s Eve. Not sure how forcing people into unregulated private celebrations is supposed to be better than encouraging controlled public ones...

—Dave Althoff, Jr.
(Who really wants to buy groceries after midnight again...)

Another anecdote, but I'm not surprised at the way things are going. Notary shows up at our door to close our re-fi, no mask. Diana is like, "Hold on, we have to mask up because we're high risk." I get the door next, he still isn't wearing a mask, so I ask him if he has one. He pulls one out of his pocket and looks at me like I'm crazy. Or he was confused about my shirt that says "WE'RE ALL LESBIANS" in sparkly letters. Either way, he's a dude who spends each day driving around to people's houses. Does he not understand what's going on?

Jeff said:

Or he was confused about my shirt that says "WE'RE ALL LESBIANS" in sparkly letters.

Once we've returned to normal you should absolutely wear that shirt on a trip to Knoebel's or out to Fun Spot for a White Lightning ride.

Obviously.

I was surprised to see the employees at the post office today not wearing masks. The sign on the door only suggested visitors wear them which I'd say only half did.

So, Jeff, if you don't mind a potentially-rude question, did you even let him into the house? I would expect that under the current conditions, a transaction like that would best be handled out on the porch or patio, and your ZIP code suggests that might actually be practical (unlike here...where I think I would still want to bring a card table out to the porch...)

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

Kind of the flip side of J's experience: It was a fair day in NY, I was walking alone home from work on the sidewalk. I audibled a detour meandering into Whole Foods (cause Friday Beer) while absently looking at my phone... See the distracted theme of my last post.

I was literally three steps into the store realizing my error and stopped moving. Reaching for the mask in my pocket. But I already had another customer menacingly pointing at me and managed to flag down the closest associate. Yeah I deserved it ...but c'mon man.

All the perks plus higher taxes and an off-season.

May be able to use online notary to avoid the card table altogether:

https://dos.myflorida.com/sunbiz/other-services/notaries/remote-onl...%20Florida).&text=This%20law%20authorizes%20Florida%20notaries,an%20application%20and%20training%20requirements.

https://www.cabr.org/2020/04/13/remote-notarization-permitted-under-ohio-law/

RideMan said:

So, Jeff, if you don't mind a potentially-rude question, did you even let him into the house?

He only had to be there ten minutes. Even the pest control guy who comes monthly knows better. The HVAC guy here in the summer was no dummy either.

Another anecdote... my mother can't understand why we're not having her over for Christmas, coming from The Villages. "I go to Cody's [bar] three times a week without a problem, and I'm not scared of it." She used to be a nurse.

Jeff said:

Another anecdote... my mother can't understand why we're not having her over for Christmas, coming from The Villages. "I go to Cody's [bar] three times a week without a problem, and I'm not scared of it." She used to be a nurse.

The Christmas Conversation

Everything about this is all too relatable for me. Particularly the very end.

That is such a great sketch.