Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

You know what probably caused the spike? Walmart stopped one way aisles. That has to be it or else they wouldn't be reinstituting the system now that there is a spike in cases. How could we have not seen the correlation? ;)

Lord Gonchar said:

Is it just because we're not catching it as opposed to it not actually happening. If children are largely unaffected and/or asymptomatic, we likely aren't testing them. And if we aren't testing them, we aren't aware of potential spread and certainly not actual spread... We just might not be collecting the right data.

This was exactly my concern. At the elementary level, they've kept classes home remote on and off. What I learned though back channels, because naturally it is all protected health information, is that at my kid's school, no two kids have been out at the same time with positive tests, and zero teachers. That means it's less likely, but not impossible, that there has been in-school transmission. To your point, we don't know for sure, because they're not testing, and it doesn't account for anyone shedding while being asymptomatic.

We're going to try it, because we can revert to remote at any time without cause or notice, but we can't do the reverse. Also, this is elementary school... if it were middle or high school, we probably wouldn't do it.

Given how much spread there is pretty much everywhere right now and the still limited amounts of testing (still a lot of places where you need some type of reason to get a test) and the practical limits of contact tracing as case numbers in a given area increase, I am not sure how much confidence we can have in the source of spread. Particularly not when you combine that with asymptomatic cases which I expect would be more true with cases in younger people.

All that being said, given a choice between having schools open (full in person or hybrid or some combination) and having bars/restaurants open, I would go with schools. They serve a dual purpose now for an increasing number of families which is child care allowing parents to work. Though if I wasn't parent (though my kids are essentialy done with undergrad at this point) and worked in a restaurant/bar, I might well have a different view on that.

Heard from our local health department today that lines at testing sites are getting pretty long once again. I think the Thanksgiving effect is about to show itself.

I'll just reiterate what I said a couple pages back. Our daughters have been face-to-face since the opening (about 20% of the district chose to go remote). Schools being open falls under my own thought/mantra about sliders: that what can be done safely should be able to continue to happen. From my observations and experience, teaching and learning can be safely done.

I'm not surprised at all that data would show that schools are not a sign of spread, because in 2020 no one is allowed to lick each other (to paraphrase). But I am only speaking from the experience of our own district. The school is ready to "go remote" at a moment's notice, but it's not a black and white situation. Having the whole district go remote is the absolute last option. Before that, individual classrooms can go remote (due to positive tests and contact tracing), then grade levels, then buildings (Elementary, Middle, and High School are all separate), then the district. The HS here has gone remote once and come back after a 2 week pause, but that has been it.

The social interaction of the kids in the schools themselves is so limited, but so worth it from a mental/social health perspective. Kids do not leave their classrooms, you're sitting next to the same other kids every day at lunch, and there is extreme limited mobility before, during, and after school...so not only are masks and social distancing being adhered to, but also the magical "3 c's" mentioned somewhere above.

All that said, I do miss the good old days when we could lick each other.

From a mental health perspective, schools being closed is one of the most damaging things that could be done to a family system (thinking about what Gonch mentioned above about people having a "breaking point").

The problem with the "damaging" part, at least the way some folks treat it, is that the existence of a damaging condition doesn't change the reality of what we have to deal with. We're really feeling out what we can safely do, and it's surprising, sometimes counter-intuitive, to see what that includes. At least we're getting better at that.

But the "I've gotta live my life YOLO" people are annoying. It reminds me of that shingles vaccine commercial... "I get 10,000 steps a day... SHINGLES DOESN'T CARE!" No one wants to wear a mask or avoid seeing grandma at Christmas, but sometimes you just have to suck it up and do things you don't want to do. That includes things that damage the economy, unfortunately, but the outcomes are worse if you do nothing.

OhioStater said:

From my observations and experience, teaching and learning can be safely done.

Just a friendly reminder that "safely" is not a thing here. Can it be done with minimal risk? Absolutely. Is it worth it? Probably. But there is some non-zero increase in risk and no matter how small it is, when you multiply that by literally tens of millions of students going to school...well...you get a second wave.

I don't think the second wave is due to school. I think it is due to young adults (and some irresponsible older adults) who threw caution into the wind at Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, etc. I regularly see small groups of friends (not my friends) who get together in front of Starbucks or a restaurant and take their masks down because they both are either assuming or trusting the other doesn't have Covid. Of course, we all know anyone can have Covid before they are showing symptoms.

I don't think it is defiance or intent to be wreckless. I think it is just carelessness. I think it is the same condition where we all say texting while driving is dangerous yet everyone is texting while driving.

...and Gonch is doing it WITHOUT WEARING A SEATBELT!!!!

Haha! Actually, I'm a huge stickler about using my phone while driving. I'm appalled at how little attention people pay to the road courtesy of their phones. And I'm being dead serious.

I'll talk on the phone - because there's no difference in talking to someone in the passenger seat or someone on the other end of the phone, I don't think. But the amount of people you see not even looking at the road (and doing it for extended periods) because they're buried in their phone just blows my minds.

Not enough to make me wear a seat belt, but it's consistently one of my least favorite parts about being a passenger in traffic - just seeing how many people aren't paying attention.

More on topic:

Iceland says the kids are alright.

I completely agree. I always wonder what the hell it is they’re looking at. I’m also tempted to pull up beside them, drift toward them ever so slightly, and then swerve away while honking. Just to give them a nice little scare. Haven’t done it yet, but if I ever do I’ll come back and report on how it went.

I was behind a woman at a red light and I could see through her back window (man all of that sounds like bad innuendo) that she was texting on her phone. Light turned green and we sat for a good 3 seconds. I politely honked, she finally hit the gas, until we got to the next red light within a few seconds. Phone back up...light turns green. We sat for a good 5 seconds this time. I LEANED on the horn. She flicked me off, like I was the a*hole.

On the Iceland school study - its great that kids don't get it or spread it, but what took our district out was the admin/teachers/staff getting it. Hard to have class without teachers.

Mythbusters (and others) have shown that talking (not even texting) on the phone is as dangerous as driving drunk (just below the legal limit).
https://www.psblaw.com/2012/08/24/mythbusters-prove-cellphone-drivi...g%20drunk.

I still do it, but at least I feel bad about it. ;) Stupid cognitive dissonance.

Here's the thing that makes me skeptical of the "people just gave up" theory and also of the weather theory. We saw nearly simultaneous points of inflection (the apparent start of exponential growth around mid-Sept.) across regions and continents. Places that have great weather, places that don't celebrate Labor Day, places with different approaches to the virus and mental health cultures, places with different mask regulations, etc. etc. etc. all saw the point of inflection at about the same time. As far as I can tell, the only commonality is school.

You have high schools and colleges of course, which the article Gonch linked says could be a transmission vector. But even if the children only have a minimal role in the spread and the main driver of the spread is people mixing in general, I would posit that driving kids to and from school, getting their supplies, taking them out for ice cream afterwords, teachers, admin., support staff sharing bathrooms etc. etc. x10,000,000 is a commonality across all the places that are seeing spikes.

Ultimately, the thing that makes me skeptical is that idea that all the young adults gave up simulataneously across geography and context.

ApolloAndy said:

Just a friendly reminder that "safely" is not a thing here. Can it be done with minimal risk? Absolutely. Is it worth it? Probably. But there is some non-zero increase in risk and no matter how small it is, when you multiply that by literally tens of millions of students going to school...well...you get a second wave.

I appreciate the reminder. By "safely", I implied an understanding of minimal risk. Of course these is a minimal risk, but not enough (from what I have observed, experienced, and read) to make me think there is much to it.

I would posit that driving kids to and from school, getting their supplies, taking them out for ice cream afterwords etc. x10,000,000 is a commonality across all the places that are seeing spikes.

So, how 7th (and 3rd) grade here works is:

1) Kids are not even allowed out of there cars (or on a bus) without masks. If you are on school property inside or outside the school, you have to be properly masked up. Parents are not allowed inside the building, and drop-off happens in a very systematic fashion. I have yet to come into contact with another human dropping my kid off at school, and the kids go straight from car/bus to classroom without stopping.

2) Once inside, kids cannot congregate anywhere. They can pick up a breakfast but then it's back to your classroom. You see the same kids, every day, all day (so sorry, Charlie if you were used to seeing your best friends at lunch...now it's that jerk Sabrina every day).

3) I'm not sure what "getting their supplies" means. There are no lockers this year...no one is allowed in the halls. Kids take home/bring literally everything they need each day every day; stuff that needs to stay at school stays at your desk.

4) Pickup just goes in reverse. Parents stay in their vehicles at all times if you pick up, which we do.

5) The whole school is sanitized better than a Millennium Force train every night.

6) Now I feel like a bad dad. I have never taken my kids out for ice cream after school. Is that a thing?

In brief, if you think of your home as your bubble, everyday we safely transport our girls from our home to an equally safe place, and then they return having interacted with the same other kids and adults all day long. No ice cream.

As I type this, I realize what one major problem would obviously be; not all schools would be following protocols like ours is, because they sound about as safe (and now you know what I mean by that) as possible.

I addition to Iceland, there was also Spain back in October.

It does make intuitive sense that opening schools would be linked to increased spread. In fact I'm sure it does to some extent. Just not "well here's where the second wave came from" type of spread.

ApolloAndy said:

Mythbusters (and others) have shown that talking (not even texting) on the phone is as dangerous as driving drunk (just below the legal limit).
https://www.psblaw.com/2012/08/24/mythbusters-prove-cellphone-drivi...g%20drunk.

I still do it, but at least I feel bad about it. ;) Stupid cognitive dissonance.

Yeah, no. We all know you can drive a truck through the holes in most of what the Mythbusters did. It was science-based entertainment, but not really science.

Thinking out loud:

The only way I can argue that it would be different is the act of holding the phone. Otherwise, I can't really see how hands-free conversation any different than passenger seat conversation. It's very literally physically the same act. Unless there's some mental difference in talking to a person who is there (which I think would be worse as you'd look at them and away from the road at times in the course of conversation) and someone who isn't.

On top of that, how does holding a phone differ from something like eating or drinking in the car? (which I'm not a fan of just because it's a pain in the ass and see tons of people do)

And (starting to argue against myself) is fiddling with your phone really any different than fiddling with the radio, GPS or whatever?

I realize this is total "pulled out of the nether regions" thinking here, but by "getting supplies" and such I just mean the general movement and mixing of people. For most of March-May I literally didn't leave my house to do anything but get groceries or walk in the park. I don't think I filled up the car's gas for 2 months. In June-August we occassionally took a trip somewhere for a few days and started playing pickup ultimate frisbee with a small group in the park. By September, we were regularly going to outdoor restaurants, Target, Home Depot, picking up snacks at 7-eleven on the way to places, etc. If I were driving past, I'd find a reason to stop in just to be out of the house. However, if I didn't have a compelling reason to leave my house, I mostly just sat in front of my computer in my pajamas (guess what kind of day today is?) Taking my kids to school would have presented such a compelling reason to get going every single day.

But even in the absence of that, I find it hard to imagine that putting millions of kids into groups of twenty or thirty every single day, even with masks, ventiallation, and spacing, wouldn't have a major impact. Maybe the data will prove me wrong, but it's just hard to imagine.

Think about what you just typed about the changes in your own behavior, though, from March to September. And you fall pretty hard on the "I am taking this seriously" edge of the spectrum, and I'm sure you take all the precautions, etc.

Now imagine that same trend in changes of adult behaviors all across our country, with the enormous amount of people who never have and never will take any of this pandemic seriously mixed in purposely doing stuff just because they can.

There's your wave.

Re: calling while driving

Say what you want about the Mythbusters (why am I not at all surprised that Gonch calls BS on them) But they're not the only ones who have done studies and come to the same conclusion, even with hands free.
A quick google search of "driving drunk vs talking on the phone" show similar findings.

Most of them didn't control against talking to someone in the car, so that would be interesting. But I know for me, with the hands-free device, there's still some dissociation from the here-and-now that doesn't occur when I'm talking to someone in the car (though my wife always yells at me when I look at her to say something while driving). Some part of my brain is busy constructing a model for the space they're in instead of observing the space I'm in.

Vater said:

She flicked me off, like I was the a*hole.