Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Contact tracing, as uneven as it is, also depends on people volunteering info. We could have a billion contact tracers but if people refuse to provide info as to where they were, who was with them, etc., it all breaks down. College kids who don't want to "rat out" their friends and force them to miss classes/stay in dorm/apartment for 10-14 days. People with friends who would have to miss work often without pay. Couple people I know who thought they were exposed (tested negative later) got very mixed reactions when they did their own contact tracing reaching out to their contacts.

And with testing and contact tracing, self isolation is largely voluntary. Some colleges are requiring kids who live on campus who test positive to go to isolation facilities. Not all are though. And in general, that isn't the norm.

I know that's been an issue where I work. People don't want to be the ones to tell their team or manager or HR that they have potentially been exposed because of the domino effect that could shut down a department. One of our branch locations just reopened after a two week closure because a staff member tested positive and it's a very small one-room location.

There have been plenty more positive tests, whether it's the staff member, a spouse, child or roommate, or obvious exposure that does not get reported. The person in question often requests to work from home for a few days or use a few PTO days while they get the test and isolate. But they don't want what they perceive as the overreaction (or to be the one to blame) of shutting down a department or even entire location.

I'm sure this is going on in workplaces all over the country.

It's interesting that as I was reading this, I was watching the prep for the CREW-1 launch. Everything for space travel has a procedure, and when something isn't within the tolerance they want, they don't go. It's an unemotional decision.

Decision making for containing an outbreak has none of that, and people have made it extra emotional, and political. We are not well equipped to roll with this when people fear they could "cause" the closure of a business, or have to risk not getting paid. Layer in the entitlement on some folks that puts others at risk. There are so many potential points of failure.

That said, I think businesses that require people to colocate are getting pretty good at working in the pandemic. People gathering individually, not so much.

I agree with that. Our workplace procedures are fantastic and really have allowed us to stay physically distanced while still being able to serve our patrons and each other.

Even with the numbers where they are, I still have a Disney reservation for a day off next week I'll likely still use. But I'm not at all looking forward to the conversation with my parents as to why I want to do Thanksgiving outside or at a very large distance when they come down to their winter place next week.

Looks like it's time to get the refrigerated trucks out again. :-/

And people are still debating mask use because virtue signaling and my freedom and choice and if you're scared stay home and whatever. I will never understand people who can't observe the thing happening right in front of them.

Jeff said:

Everything for space travel has a procedure, and when something isn't within the tolerance they want, they don't go. It's an unemotional decision.

Have you watched the Challenger series on Netflix? They paint a very grim picture where emotion and bean counters overrode good decision making.

BrettV said:
Even with the numbers where they are, I still have a Disney reservation for a day off next week I'll likely still use.

If the contact tracing — while severely lacking — is to be trusted it's still spreading primarily in indoor spaces where people are gathered without masks. The message here in PA for two weeks has been do not gather inside with people outside your household. My wife and I are keeping our Universal trip in December. We both work from home and have already cancelled family holiday plans.

Yes, the Challenger doc was a case study in establishing a guideline and ignoring it. The saddest thing about that was that anyone in the loop was not surprised about the outcome, except for that one guy.

ApolloAndy said:

Looks like it's time to get the...

Stop! Don't say...

...refrigerated trucks out again.

Crap.

It's like saying Beetlejuice three times.

(It was a lot easier to ignore this thread when no one was being unreasonable in it.)

If we had more morgue capacity (rooms with refrigerated drawers) but the same number of deaths and as a result no refrigerated trucks were needed, would people feel better about the number of deaths?

Isn't it all just fake news anyway?

El Paso has been using the trucks for weeks. In fact, they're using prison inmates to manage the 40+ people dying per day. Pretty grim stuff.

Lord Gonchar said:
(It was a lot easier to ignore this thread when no one was being unreasonable in it.)

You can't just leave that here and run. Who is being unreasonable and why?

I don't visit this site much anymore and rarely post. I turned 60 this year and have neck/back issues, so I have stopped going to parks. I have been a physician for 35 years, most of that time spent as the senior MD in the Emergency Department at the Minneapolis VAMC. I did my training in Internal Medicine and completed a fellowship in Infectious Diseases. I can speak of daily observations over the last nine months.

This is unlike anything I could have imagined. I was in med school when the AIDS epidemic first started - HIV had yet to be identified. After residency, I started up the first AIDS clinic at our VA. As tragic as the AIDS epidemic was, it pales in comparison to what we are seeing with COVID.

Minnesota missed the first wave of infection last spring. The governor shut the state down, and we survived unscathed. In fact, last spring Minnesota hospitals were empty, because elective surgeries and outpatient clinics were cancelled. It was a ghost town. When I drove to work, the streets were empty. We had few COVID cases. A lot of businesses went bankrupt due to the shut down. The governor received death threats. We've continued with mandatory masks for many months now, even after the state opened up again.

Currently Minnesota is drowning in COVID. We are one of the hot spots in the country. Every day we set records for new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Most days, all hospital beds in the Twin Cities are full. We've had nights that we have had to lodge inpatients in the ED because all hospital beds within 200 miles are full. That's not just COVID patients. It's all patients - heart attacks, strokes, sepsis, etc. We are drowning. We assume that every patient that walks into the ED is COVID +.

For our PPE, we get one disposable single use surgical mask per day. I wear the same mask when I see a COVID patient, then the heart attack patient, then the next COVID patient, then the stroke. Same mask for 10-12 hour shift. I was issued an N95 mask in March. I am still using the same N95 mask eight months later.

The governor has a press conference in two hours. He will likely shut the state down once again. He will receive more death threats. Trump will call him mean names. It will be too little, too late.

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, STAY HOME AND ISOLATE YOURSELF. WEAR YOUR ****IN' MASKS. STOP BEING WHINEY LITTLE BITCHES. PEOPLE ARE DYING OUT THERE.

Jeff said:

You can't just leave that here and run. Who is being unreasonable and why?

The implication is that Andy mentioned scary refrigerated trucks, so we're about to be. Hence, the Beettlejuice reference...and suggesting that saying it would bring out...

You know what? Nevermind. I'd say that if I have to explain it, it ain't funny, but while that is true, sometimes it's more a case of knowing your audience.

You're copping out, dude... is there something inaccurate about Andy bringing up refrigerated trucks? We can see that happening, and it's not isolated to NYC this time. I think sws' account on the ground, at a hospital, deserves pause and serious consideration.

I've said this a lot lately, but it's not like we don't know how to coexist with this virus and reduce the risk of transmission. There is no reason to be fearful or freak out if we do the basic things. There's a lot of cruel irony here, that businesses have mostly figured out how to successfully, if in a limited way, operate. Now government wants to potentially shut them down not because of the dry humpers you like to poke at me about, but because people are gathering without considering the consequences in private.

GoBucks89 said:

If we had more morgue capacity (rooms with refrigerated drawers) but the same number of deaths and as a result no refrigerated trucks were needed, would people feel better about the number of deaths?

I don't think people would feel better about the deaths, but the 'haunted house' element would be gone and I think that'd make it less spoopy.

Jeff said:

You're copping out, dude... is there something inaccurate about Andy bringing up refrigerated trucks?

No, I'm really not. I mean, I'm not sure how you don't understand the joke or the reference to incanting something and then unleashing ensuing crap, but trust me - it was lamenting the conversation that was about to happen.

I've said this a lot lately, but it's not like we don't know how to coexist with this virus and reduce the risk of transmission. There is no reason to be fearful or freak out if we do the basic things.

This. It's been just a week shy of ten months since this post started and this is where I've landed...in the middle. Just like politics, the vocal fringes are exactly what you'd expect them to be.

Proper precautions are pretty simple. Real individual risk to anyone not of advanced age or compromised health is realtively low - certainly well within my comfort range. So if everyone could just reel in the rhetoric, the vaccine is just around the corner.

It's a pretty enormous corner.

I can't tell if you're just being your usual argumentative self or not. There are people already bitching and moaning about restrictions being imposed because those same people aren't the team players doing the basic things that would have prevented the restrictions. I mean, cool, you're good with your risk level, great, do your part to not increase the risk level of others and it's all good. You can't possibly know if the teenager you encounter needs a lung transplant or if you'll be the middle-aged guy who has symptoms for months. It's not just the people who die.

sws said:

Currently Minnesota is drowning in COVID. We are one of the hot spots in the country. Every day we set records for new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Most days, all hospital beds in the Twin Cities are full. We've had nights that we have had to lodge inpatients in the ED because all hospital beds within 200 miles are full. That's not just COVID patients. It's all patients - heart attacks, strokes, sepsis, etc. We are drowning. We assume that every patient that walks into the ED is COVID +.

I looked into the MInnesota state-wide hospitalization numbers (found here). I understand there may discrepancies between one hospital/area and what's happening at the state level so two things can be true at the same time. With that said, as of 11/17/20:

• ICU beds currently in use - 1,153
• ICU bed capacity - 1,408 (about 80% which is not out of line for normal ICU capacity)
• Non-ICU beds with a PCR+ test patient in it - 1,351
• Total Non-ICU beds currently in use - 6,645
• Non-ICU bed capacity - 8,984 (about 75% of total)

I explained during the summer wave in the Sunbelt that nearly every state there showed a similar case curve. Things are no different now in the Upper Midwest (and nearly all of Europe). The case curves of Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Wisconsin, etc. all look the same for a reason. The virus is seasonal, and when it gets into a geographic area there's nothing you can do about it except trying to protect vulnerable populations as best you can. Mississippi and Alabama have similar case curves. One of those states dropped their statewide mask mandate on September 30 and one state didn't. Can you tell which is which by their case curves?

sws said:

For our PPE, we get one disposable single use surgical mask per day. I wear the same mask when I see a COVID patient, then the heart attack patient, then the next COVID patient, then the stroke. Same mask for 10-12 hour shift. I was issued an N95 mask in March. I am still using the same N95 mask eight months later.

I don't understand why you cannot get more PPE. I checked on Amazon and I can get N95 masks in 2 days. And surgical masks make even less sense as every store is selling them. It makes no sense that you are not getting new masks.

Gary Dowdell said:

Mississippi and Alabama have similar case curves. One of those states dropped their statewide mask mandate on September 30 and one state didn't. Can you tell which is which by their case curves?

I think the catch is that the y-axis scale is different between the two curves. Playing with the scale can make the curve look as steep or shallow as you want it to.