Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Yeah, the easy answer to Andy's question is "all of the above," but I agree that complacency/COVID fatigue is probably the greatest factor. Just driving around town running errands, it always seems like there are lots of people out and about. Parking lots are full. Tons of traffic.

We still haven't been inside of a restaurant since March, and though we no longer scrub all of our groceries with disinfectant and are willing to get take-out, we've gone back to curbside pickups at the grocery stores rather than going inside, and we are cutting our in-person interactions as much as possible, whereas society at large seems to be full steam ahead. It's very distressing looking at the cases curve on the Indiana COVID dashboard: you can't even make out the initial surge or late summer surge anymore, as they've been flattened relative to the huge spike over the last couple of weeks.

It doesn't seem like there's a lot of evidence that schools are the primary vector, though kids are gross under the best of circumstances. I do think it's complacency by grown-ups. Even with the rise in cases, I know a ton of people planning to do full on Thanksgiving, with two dozen family members from multiple states. And yes, they all seem to have voted for Trump.

I really don't know what to think anymore. PA upped restaurant capacity to 50% from 25% right as the fall was coming in and cases have risen. Contact tracing points to private gatherings, especially around Halloween, having a serious impact.

From the Allegheny County daily Covid-19 Daily Update emails...

November 11

As the number of cases in Allegheny County continues to increase, the Health Department asks residents to help control the spread:
• Please pick up the phone when a Health Department case investigator calls and answer their questions;
• As we spend more time indoors around others, keep physical distance and wear masks;
• Avoid parties and gatherings, even among your family and friends.

November 9

While data is still preliminary for much of the first week in November and this week, the Health Department expects the weekly number of new cases to top 1,000. This indicates that there is a significant amount of community spread. Without changes to personal behaviors, such as limiting parties and gatherings, cases will continue to rise.

Everything I have seen seems to point to private gatherings as the leading source of spread. Not grocery stores, fitness centers, amusement parks, restaurants, bars, or schools. Of course that means that our Governor is now talking about closing bars, restaurants and fitness centers again because after all he has to DO SOMETHING. Personally, I think closing down *anything* at this point is counter-productive, and would welcome any action that would bring back late-night restaurants and retail so that those of us who are able can go to those places when they aren't stupid crowded.

In Ohio there has been essentially a bookkeeping change that is inflating the numbers a little bit, although the effect of that change should be working itself out by now. The last order from the Health Department Director was a reporting requirement that all known cases have to be reported to the State within 24 hours. Combine that with increased processing capability for test results, and one thing that is happening is that the State is getting new case totals much *faster*. The totals are the same, but the number we get every day actually represents new cases reported in the last 24 hours which tends to lag a bit from case onset data. That lag used to be a couple of weeks; now it looks to be only a few days. I'm still crunching today's data. But as of yesterday, the highest reported date was Tuesday 11/10, with 6,165 confirmed cases reported. But in the adjusted data the highest total cases on any single day was last Thursday 11/5, with a total of 5,266 confirmed and probable cases. In another hour or so I'll know the new peak day, once the counting script finishes. The State makes the data available, but they don't make it easy to summarize.

Edit: Ohio's high score so far is 5,413 cases, still on November 5.

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

Lord Gonchar said:

The rise in numbers is about to collide with Thanksgiving gatherings...

And then collide with Christmas which will plow through New Years and before you know it, the pandemic is at a point where it will threaten the spring/summer season again. We will be right back where we were in 2020 and this is what worries me.

Sadly, I've been look at at more log scale graphs that I hadn't looked at all summer. (i.e. the growth rate is exponential again).

It's already too late. In a matter of a few weeks, we've spiked to twice as many cases in July. Treatment appears to reduce death rates, but that's predicated on the idea that hospitals can keep up. In many places, they already can't.

I don't get the apathy. I know enough people who have had this to know I definitely want to avoid it, and definitely don't want to be a party to spreading it.

Lord Gonchar said:

The rise in numbers is about to collide with Thanksgiving gatherings and an awful lot of people are going to be getting dead grandparents for Christmas this year.

That got dark quick!

Illinois has a few counties that are well over 600 cases per 100K. Most are rural communities. That is data for the week of 10/25-10/31. Our updated numbers will be released tomorrow, which will include the post Halloween spike. Meanwhile our positivity rate has shot up from around 4% a month ago to 12.6%.

Things are getting very bad in the Land of Lincoln. Our governor has gone from completely dismissing talk of stay at home orders a week ago to saying today that we are running out of options quickly. Schools have been extremely hesitant to transition back to remote, to the point of completely ignoring their reopening guidelines. This week they have started dropping like flies. Our school district went from 40 cases to over 100 in the span of two days.

Florida seems to have a gradual slope upward right now in terms of cases, but at least at the moment, it's nowhere near where things were in peak season. Here's hoping that upward slope isn't really the base of a spike.

I have a anecdote about treatment. My uncle was ill for three weeks before his doctor told him to go to the hospital. The hospital gave him an IV and he was sent home two days later. He wasn’t at risk of death or the leader of the free world so there’s no treatment available for him despite being out of commission for three weeks.

I imagine Florida has the advantage of not being cold, so people are not congregating inside. More anecdotes, but it seems like a lot of people are going to have Thanksgiving as nothing is going on. The half of my fifth grader's class that normally goes to the school is all working from home today. I can connect the dots about why.

Anecdote: I saw a FB post from someone in Florida who was grateful that it had finally turned “cooler” and the patios around town would be available and busy. So it’s like Opposite Day there- we’re packing it inside and they’re coming out.

Our family is small. My brother already said they are skipping holidays. My partner’s sister wants to host the three of us, including Mom, in Indianapolis for thanksgiving for a total of four. I’m having second thoughts about that. It’s a three hour drive and even though we’re in our own bubble I’m still not sure.
Sucks.

Anecdotal Reason Why #278

You just can't make this stuff up. A woman I work with has a daughter in 4th grade at a public school here in NE Ohio. She had mentioned to her parents how great it has been to get "such long mask breaks" during the day, so they asked her daughter what she meant. Turns out in one of her classes, the teacher proudly announced..."since there are only 15 of you in this class, you don't have to wear masks in my classroom".

Guess which class this was?

Come on...one guess.

Yep...her health class.

Over the last month or so there have been a lot more cars in driveways as we drive in an out of neighborhood and around town. Last weekend the weather was great so people could have been outside but I am sure many of those gatherings have been inside. As the weather turns colder, those will pretty much all be inside gatherings.

Restaurant parking lots appear to at least as many cars in them as the summer though patios are closing. I was always surprised at the number of people eating inside even during the summer when patio space was available. But people I know who have worked like normal the entire time (because they interact with public and are "essential" tend to be from what I have seen less concerned about eating inside restaurants.

Tough to know what is causing spread when you are not testing broadly and contact tracing is a mixed bag. If you only go one place and have no interactions with anyone outside your household (who also has no interactions), you can know. But when people have multiple different interactions and members of household do as well, its tougher to know where exposure happened. Not sure how many K-12 schools are testing students or staff. Colleges are testing (to varying degrees) and there is spread at many of them.

Thanksgiving plans seem to be all over the board. Know some people who have canceled. Others are moving forward with normal plans (20+ people in some cases -- with at least one family relying on the funeral exception in Ohio with a turkey funeral for 25+ people). And everywhere in-between. Our 20+ gathering we host annually has been split into at least 4 separate meals at 4 different houses. And with Ohio cases climbing, we may take food to my in-laws though we have seen them somewhat regularly throughout rather than having them at our house.

Ultimately more interactions (particularly inside with little ventilation and over length of time) leads to more spread. What you view as safe/reasonable will likely vary based on how much you like/how important the interaction is to you.

99er does make a scary point. If we’re looking at more restrictions already and we’re not really going to “turn a corner” til late spring: This winter is a lot longer than last March : (

The northeast has been luckily seasonally warm thus far, until the rain came in the past couple days. We haven’t seen the type cold spells that have already hit the Plain states and pushed people indoors. Nor have we seen the same % rise rates (yet).

It’s complacency, but it’s also the weather. I’m starting to sound like Six Flags.

On another note, this study (if you want to give any stock to the CDC these days) should play well to the security theatre crowd here. Surprised it wasn't already brought up.

GoBucks89 said:

But people I know who have worked like normal the entire time (because they interact with public and are "essential" tend to be from what I have seen less concerned about eating inside restaurants.

Maybe this is why I haven't thought twice about eating indoors at restaurants (and going to theme parks) as soon as they reopened in May down here in Florida. But for the 6-7 weeks we were closed to the public from March-May, I've been back at work with my usual routine throughout all of this. Since I'm in a public building having regular interactions with coworkers and our patrons, eating at an indoor restaurant doing the spacing thing and having servers wear masks doesn't even phase me. I've probably eaten in a restaurant at least three times a week since May. Perhaps though if I had continued to work from home and/or not been able to return to work due to a layoff or furlough and didn't have that daily routine of exposure risk, I would have thought more about "getting back out there" for recreation.

OhioStater said:

...the teacher proudly announced..."since there are only 15 of you in this class, you don't have to wear masks in my classroom".

This is why we can't have nice things.

I put it this way to someone in Ohio: at the current rate, the 7,000 Ohioans who got it yesterday will infect 8,750. They in turn will infect 10,970, who will infect 13,671, who will infect 17,089, who will infect 21,362... 3,000 Ohioans were hospitalized yesterday with Covid. At this rate, Ohio will run out of beds, not ICU beds, hospital beds entirely, in about three weeks. So I hope nobody skins a knee or has a heart attack in all of Ohio.

Just imagine...

A) First, cases are going nuts, and our country is as divided as it ever has been with regards to mitigation efforts as far as I can tell.

B) People just can't let go of having large Thanksgiving family gatherings.

C) Every college I know of is done just before Thanksgiving. With some exceptions, I can tell you first-hand that the testing being done is haphazard at best, and more or less designed to keep the students on campus as long as possible so that room-and-board revenue is not lost.

D) All these students will be travelling home just before Thanksgiving. There is a lot of untested Covid-19 going home with them.

From what I absorb (and no, I am not personally analyzing charts and graphs or data, just listening mostly to NPR and other local news) many rural hospitals in Ohio are already at or near capacity.

Has anyone ever seen the movie Perfect Storm?

GoBucks89 said:

Not sure how many K-12 schools are testing students or staff.

I know of two in the Chicagoland area, New Trier and Lake Forest. Those are two of the richest schools in Illinois. New Trier estimates that they will be spending $1.3 million in testing this fall. With the impending budget crisis schools without sizeable reserves can't afford that. Oh, and the tests are completely voluntary.

> the tests are completely voluntary.

This might be a problem. U-M had a voluntary surveillance testing model, and it completely failed to catch an uptick in campus-community spread. The likely reason: people who opt into testing are also likely to be more careful than average, so they are less likely to be participating in spread.