Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

It seems there's a perfect storm of pandemic fatigue and cooler weather putting people inside together, which won't be good. Locally, about 15k kids converter back to on-premise school, people are already insisting they'll do Halloween stuff with others, etc. The trajectory looks like it will put us higher than July in terms of infection, but death rates will hopefully be lower because there are more younger people and doctors are getting better at treatment. The problem it's that there may not be beds to treat in, as the Midwest and plains states are running out. As before, I think Europe is previewing our future.

And as we've observed over and over, it's not like we don't know how to reduce risk.

Back in the spring, I never would have had the thought that a fall trip to a busy Cedar Point or Kings Island would offer better protection from COVID than a day out at the metroparks or a reasonably sized gathering of family or friends.

I know the amusement park experience has been subpar at best for many this year. But it really does seem like (most of) the major operators that were able to open their parks have provided one of the safest and most controlled environments for folks to get out and have a sense of normalcy.

GoBucks89 said:

Ohio struggling right now with Covid.

Yeah, the only evidence I have comes courtesy of our old friend, anecdotal, but...

What I'm seeing is not necessarily people ignoring precautions (masks, distancing, etc), but rather people tired of not doing 'normal' things. Everything has been much busier in the past couple of weeks than it has been the last 6 months. It feels like people as a whole are back to doing the things they did before. This weekend (the 16th-18th) my wife's company (hotels in Columbus, Cincy, Dayton areas) had the biggest weekend they've had since this all started. People are out and about in Ohio.

Our school district has gone from in-person classes to a hybrid model where kids work online for three days and go in-person for two days because of the increase.

The surge pattern is interesting though because (right now, at least) the areas being hit seem to be the ones that generally avoided a big swell during the previous six months. The places that had huge outbreaks already still seem to be on the lower end of things. Naturally, there are tons of reasons this could be true, but it's one of those things that could be fun to keep an eye on.

Judging by the queue-times.com 180 minute posted wait for Raptor right now on what looks like a dreary, cold day, it definitely appears Ohioans are ready to start doing things again.

Everyone has been ready to "do things" for months... they just don't seem to have a very good understanding of what is risky and what isn't (or they don't care).

We discussed months back how countries that were doing better with Covid had gotten bit by previous virus outbreaks. Getting kicked in the teeth makes you take things more seriously. Similar thing happened with Covid in US. States that got kicked in the mouth have been taking it more seriously since. But NY and NJ still lead the country in per capita Covid deaths. By a lot.

There is talk of a third wave in the US. But really its been spreading to different parts of the country. Size and demographics of the US make Covid a huge challenge. Now though its seeded all across the country.

Once getting punched in the mouth, states take it more seriously. What happens with states that were jabbed in the gut rather than punched in the face? Ohio got the jab and has done OK but hasn't taken it as seriously.

Is there also an element of having low hanging fruit picked off with those punches to the face? Maybe.

In some ways given the finite amount of time before people fatigue of mitigation efforts, some states may have "closed down" too soon. Tough though.

Europe is having significant challenges right now. Yet they do not have many of the same issues that the US does. At least not those commonly pointed to here.

Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are setting new case records almost daily right now. Italy in particular took it pretty serious with one of the largest initial body counts, but here they are. I don't think it's just an American phenomenon anymore.

Assuming masks and reasonable precautions aren't politicized anywhere else, is the next step in co-existing with COVID creating resources for mental health support and finding "smart" ways to beat COVID fatigue since it's clear that outside of the "if you leave your home you are personally responsible for killing Grandma" crowd, people are not going to do March and April again.

The world needs more introverts.

Jeff said:

I don't think it's just an American phenomenon anymore.

I feel like I've heard that somewhere before. 😉

Mulfinator said:

The world needs more introverts.

I consider myself quite introverted, but one of the hardest things in the world for me to do is not wake up and immediately leave the house to do something.

Lord Gonchar said:

Jeff said:

I don't think it's just an American phenomenon anymore.

I feel like I've heard that somewhere before. 😉

I have as well.

It's not uniquely our problem, but we're better at being bad at it than most.

Jeff said:

Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are setting new case records almost daily right now. Italy in particular took it pretty serious with one of the largest initial body counts, but here they are. I don't think it's just an American phenomenon anymore.

Italy also has the oldest population in the world, so I can imagine that factored in their decision making.

Japan also has a high percentage of older adults but hasn't seen the same Covid issues.

https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/

GoBucks89 said:

...In some ways given the finite amount of time before people fatigue of mitigation efforts, some states may have "closed down" too soon...

I think something we have to consider also is the finite amount of mental and emotional energy people can give to something before they are just too fatigued to not be "done". Back in March and April it didn't matter what else was going on, everything on the news was Covid. So if you stayed home and watched TV even if you avoided the news there was a bombardment of public service announcements telling you to save lives by staying home. Switch over to some youtube to watch music videos and some concert footage every couple songs there was more public service announcements telling us to stay home and slow/stop the spread. Sitting in my pool in the backyard alone with the radio on every other commercial made some reference to how that company was going to out social distance another company or is here for you in this unprecedented time or gone contactless or how because of covid concerns I can be assured nobody will touch my pizza from oven to box (how many people were touching my pizza from oven to box before the pandemic?). And of course in between all that more public service announcents. I had to quit listening to the radio. Every store has spots everywhere, signs in every aisle about how many cart lengths 6 feet equals. There's practically nowhere yo go to get a few minutes peace without reminders that everything is crap. At Cedar Point even signs saying a particular area is closed have to specify it's closed due to social distancing. It's not enough for the the sign to just say closed. I got carryout and went to eat in the park and even there the metroparks by me (which was almost empty each time I've gone recently) have put signs on the pavilions telling everyone to social distance and cover their coughs. Every time I go into work I get asked the list of questions about symptoms and who I've been around and if I've traveled and not just a "you know the spiel has anything changed?" the principal goes through every single question every single time and waits for you to answer after each one and when he gets to "have you traveled" I almost want to laugh. He knows what time I got off work yesterday. How far am I likely to have gone, come back, and still slept and gotten to work on time? The constant bombardment of everything being covid this covid that is mentally draining and I'm sure contributing to a lot of people just being mentally "done" and caring less and less. It's not all about not being able to handle not doing things and going places, it runs deeper.

Life is hard

Yeah, Paisley, I get it. The CDC (Cutting Down Celebrations) blasted the PSAs over the radio that kept saying "STAY HOME! STAY HOME! STAY HOME!" Oh my goodness. That was the worst of this virus, and I can't say the same for ALL the Disney employees who had to go through all this pain. Please keep your prayers for those Disney and other amusement park workers.

Paisley said:
I think something we have to consider also is the finite amount of mental and emotional energy people can give to something before they are just too fatigued to not be "done".

I'll be the first to agree that there's a cost to this, emotionally, physically and fiscally. But I also don't fully understand this sentiment. I'm tired of Trump being president, but he still is. I can be tired of the pandemic, but it's still there. If you're at war, you don't wander into occupied territory because you're tried of it. (Cue the people who want to tear down the metaphor instead of the sentiment. 🙂)

Sentiment is not a strategy?