Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

RideMan said:

What happened when we shut down for two months and flattened the curve was we stretched this whole thing out for three more months.

No. What's going on globally is complacency, or in the case of the US, people just got bored with the whole affair and gave up. It's not going to go away if you let it "burn through" the population. Locally, the disease has caused serious chaos and flooded hospitals to the point of requiring temporary morgues. Think about it: So far about 1.5% of the entire US population has been infected, not even all at once, and the consequences have been that serious. As it tears through rural areas in the south, where cases per capita are currently two to four times urban centers, it's overwhelming small hospitals that have four ICU beds at most. What do you think happens if the relatively modest per capita infection rate doubles or triples? The healthcare system outright collapses and we all have funerals we can't even go to.

Based on everything we know today, the only course of action we have is to mask up, social distance and hope these vaccine trials are successful. Stretched it out for three months? We've got 6 to 9 at best under any circumstances.

As we also discussed umpteen pages ago, people would not remain in a locked down state for very long. People will also likely not allow a second one to take place. Months ago the number of hospital beds required was greatly overestimated, the hospitals got busy, but we never ran out of beds. Many temporary hospitals went unused. We modeled it and got it wrong. People were more accepting early on of changes to their lives because they thought it would allow for a quick return to normal. It was all wrong.

Lockdown will never eradicate a disease, diseases can live in hosts other than humans. Corona came from an animal source, therefore lockdown will only slow down the spread. Unless a vaccine is created then eventually the majority of people will contract the virus. The nice thing about exponential growth is that it hits hard and then it stops, once all the hosts become infected the virus loses its path to replication, there are some people that can avoid it if they isolate and once the masses spread it around then the isolated person has a much lower chance of contraction.

It is no surprise that people are resisting or have given up on eradication measures, as we have seen even in countries that were praised for their efforts, the virus is still alive and well and still spreading. We might like to believe we can control our world, but the reality is that we aren't as great as we think we are, and microbes are much better at survival than we are.

I agree with that. I feel that people, as a whole, would have been more willing to do occasional stay at home suggestions (I still hesitate to use the words lockdown or quarantine for what anyone here did in the USA) if we had come out of the end of April wit the ability to be at 80-90% of our old normal. The constant moving of goal posts and now seeing countries that did do a hard lockdown essentially suffer similar issues that we are suffering and there is no way at all you'll convince enough people to even consider doing the relatively mild stay at home suggestion we did in March/April a second time.

Which comes back to Fauci saying last week that if everyone just wore a g.d. mask that stay at home orders and lockdowns wouldn't even be even a consideration.

You'd be hard pressed to convince me shutting down Florida right now would be worth it. But why people feel that way about simply wearing a mask or keeping a few extra steps back from me in line at Wawa, I'll never understand.

TheMillenniumRider said:

We modeled it and got it wrong. People were more accepting early on of changes to their lives because they thought it would allow for a quick return to normal. It was all wrong.

No, it's exactly right. The modeling showed what would happen if we didn't respond. We did respond, and the worst case didn't happen. If you thought that was a panacea that would resolve itself in two months, that's on you.

It's getting bad again because people have become complacent and they're not wearing masks. [insert your dry humping jokes or whatever here]

It is no surprise that people are resisting or have given up on eradication measures, as we have seen even in countries that were praised for their efforts, the virus is still alive and well and still spreading.

No, people are just stupid and entitled. They aren't "eradication measures," they're mitigation measures. Again, if you ever expected that was the desired outcome, you haven't been paying attention.

Jeff said:

Based on everything we know today, the only course of action we have is to mask up, social distance and hope these vaccine trials are successful.

Hope is not a strategy...or so I've been told.

Fortunately, there's more than one trial occurring.

So multiple hopes is a strategy?

No, the many eggs, many baskets is a strategy.

TheMillenniumRider said:

As we also discussed umpteen pages ago, people would not remain in a locked down state for very long. People will also likely not allow a second one to take place. Months ago the number of hospital beds required was greatly overestimated, the hospitals got busy, but we never ran out of beds. Many temporary hospitals went unused. We modeled it and got it wrong. People were more accepting early on of changes to their lives because they thought it would allow for a quick return to normal. It was all wrong.

Got it wrong how? People planned for the worst case and it didn't happen? That's getting it wrong? In that case, you should probably stop all your insurance payments because every check you send in is "getting it wrong."

Lockdown will never eradicate a disease, diseases can live in hosts other than humans. Corona came from an animal source, therefore lockdown will only slow down the spread.

Um...what?

Unless a vaccine is created then eventually the majority of people will contract the virus.

Not true and probably exactly the point. HIV, Herpes, and many other virii do not have vaccines and yet have not infected even a substantial fraction of the population. Why? Because people take precautions so they don't spread it. Like they put a barrier over their orifices so that the virus particles can't get through. Universal mask usage would control the spread without vaccine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/14/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

The nice thing about exponential growth is that it hits hard and then it stops, once all the hosts become infected the virus loses its path to replication, there are some people that can avoid it if they isolate and once the masses spread it around then the isolated person has a much lower chance of contraction.

So, a) That's not true at all. It doesn't just magically stop. It trickles on for months and years with outbreaks and flare ups in different places. b) there's reasonable evidence that we might not ever reach herd immunity. We're still not sure if infection and recovery means lasting immunity. c) if you let it run rampant the requirement for herd immunity goes up. d) millions of people will be dead. So as "nice things" go, it's not especially nice.

Also, I don't know how many ways to say this, but isolating people is not a real strategy. They can't be totally isolated even if they wanted to and it's inhumane and unrealistic to tell them to not leave their rooms for 6 months.

It is no surprise that people are resisting or have given up on eradication measures, as we have seen even in countries that were praised for their efforts, the virus is still alive and well and still spreading.

I have never understood this American exceptionalism around suckiness. Yes, the virus is alive in other countries. Yes, it's spreading in other countries. But lots of countries are doing orders of magnitude better than us in case count and body count. It's been 61 days since anyone in New Zealand died of Corona virus. Southeast Asia on the whole has 20% of the per capita deaths that we do and Europe has about 25%. And we're sitting here saying, "Well, looks like nobody can control the virus" and just resign ourselves to millions of people dying. Instead of just covering our G.D. orifices.

Just here to say this is the first time I've seen the plural "virii" used.

I'm disappointed that he stopped short of saying "face condom."

ApolloAndy said:

And we're sitting here saying, "Well, looks like nobody can control the virus" and just resign ourselves to millions of people dying. Instead of just covered our G.D. orifices.

This is where I'm at as well. There's an overwhelming feeling of, "Science didn't have this right from the start so to hell with all of it because I'm bored!" Cool cool, so not everyone appreciates the process or even how one solves big problems like this. But now we've got a pretty good idea of how to coexist with it for now and not have excessive body counts. Only in opposite land (or America) do we choose at this point to say, "**** it, I give up," when we finally can go in the right direction with a somewhat less robust lifestyle, but at least a means to curb the damage.

I'm particularly annoyed at just how ignorant people are that even having multiple vaccine candidates this soon in and of itself is an extraordinary achievement. The nerds are going to save our asses, so maybe start listening to them.

Silly you. Its not the nerds - its Trump who is saving America.

Operation Warp Speed!

BrettV said:

Just here to say this is the first time I've seen the plural "virii" used.

Apparently, that's because it's incorrect. But it's also common, like "octopi" which is also wrong.

It's not just a phenomenon in America.

Not only do we have to hope for a vaccine(s), then we have to hope people will get it.

42%

It's actually dropped. Interesting.

Makes it easier for me to get. :)

No, the many eggs, many baskets is a strategy.

Hope we have enough eggss and baskets.

GoBucks89 said:
Hope we have enough eggss and baskets.

I read that, like this:

...even though I didn't want to.