Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

One thing to consider is that with the wearing of masks, distancing, etc., it is possible that the infections that are occurring are generally less severe. Maybe you get enough of the virus to make you ill, or an asymptomatic carrier, but not enough to lead to hospitalization or death.

(1) IANAE, and (2) I have no idea what the policy implications of this would be, if true (other than keep wearing your damn mask!) But it *might* explain the difference in mortality rates.

You're looking at the national number, Gonch... I was referring to the state by state numbers. They're pretty straight forward. Where the cases increased, the deaths increased.

Jeff said:

I was referring to the state by state numbers. They're pretty straight forward. Where the cases increased, the deaths increased.

But still at nowhere close to the same ratio as earlier.

Now you're getting 2-to-3 times the deaths on 10 times the cases when compared to spring.

Is the death data in Florida granular enough to know what the current death count by age is? The perception that I have is that the majority of the new cases are coming from the <40 year old population. Is this age group where the increase in deaths are coming from as well, or are the deaths still primarily from the older population?

hambone said:

One thing to consider is that with the wearing of masks, distancing, etc., it is possible that the infections that are occurring are generally less severe. Maybe you get enough of the virus to make you ill, or an asymptomatic carrier, but not enough to lead to hospitalization or death.

That's a reasonable hypothesis, but I highly doubt that is the case in reality. If the virus is in the vicinity of two adults standing in the same area - one age 18 and one age 85, the odds of the viral load being significantly higher in the age 85 adult than in the age 18 adult are really low. Nearly every credible source says that well north of 90% of deaths with COVID have co-morbidities. The extent to which any individual is affected by the virus seems to hinge on how healthy you were before you were infected.

Face masks usage in the US has increased substantially since the beginning of March. Mandatory masks orders have been on the books in some states since at least early May. South Africa mandated mandatory masks in public on May 1. California mandated mandatory masks around June 22. One would reasonably assume that case numbers would have started to drop in those areas since that time, but just the opposite has happened. I would make an argument that it's the high number of people who touch, wear, sanitize and store their masks improperly that is a contributing factor. This video illustrates why this is such a big deal:

Centura Health Demo

If any facet of using masks is handled improperly, then it stands to reason that more particles of all kinds will end up on both the inside and outside surface of the mask. If the mask isn't fit tested - and it probably isn't - then the wearer is simply expelling both their normal exhaled air and the particles on the surfaces of the mask into the air in more concentrated doses. Air and water take the path of least resistance, so even if the mask stops some forward air movement, air (and other) particles are still coming out of the mask area if there are gaps in the sides.

Any discussion about the desire for increased mask usage is pointless unless they're being used properly. There is active debate on how much, if any, effectiveness masks have. I've yet to see any disagreement about masks being rendered useless if used improperly.

I think I remember seeing the median age for positive cases in Florida was around 41, slowly rising by about a year every 3-4 days over the past two weeks. I can't find that citation now, though.

Also, the general consensus is that masks help. Obviously improper use reduces their effectiveness, but it's hard to argue that slightly improper use (not completely sealed on all sides) is worse than no mask.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/23/894425483/can-...ience-says

Also, also, it appears that isolating nursing homes from the rest of the population isn't working:
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/15/florida-nu...us-1301255

Shades said:

Is the death data in Florida granular enough to know what the current death count by age is? The perception that I have is that the majority of the new cases are coming from the <40 year old population. Is this age group where the increase in deaths are coming from as well, or are the deaths still primarily from the older population?

Yes. Please see the link below:

Florida COVID Charts through July 4

Also of interest on that report, take a look at some of the "Coronavirus: testing by laboratory" numbers. Some labs are showing 50% positive results and up. Some labs are showing 100% positive results from their tests. Why are the negative test numbers not being reported by those labs? There is more than one lab in that group, so that absolutely has to be skewing the numbers, and is borderline negligent.

ApolloAndy said:

Also, also, it appears that isolating nursing homes from the rest of the population isn't working:
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/15/florida-nu...us-1301255

In Florida. Nothing works in Florida.

Gary Dowdell said:

Air and water take the path of least resistance, so even if the mask stops some forward air movement, air (and other) particles are still coming out of the mask area if there are gaps in the sides.

Taking the path of least resistance is generally correct, but the large droplets do not take a hard right/left turn out of your mouth in order to exit unimpeded out of the gaps on the sides. The inertia of the droplets carries them into the mask where they are "captured" by the mask material.

And for the tiny droplets that are able to be carried out of the sides of a mask, that still seems to be a better alternative than being projected directly at the person you are talking to. And their velocity is going to be much lower because they have to make a right/left turn which is an incredible amount of pressure drop.

For a simple experiment to see what I mean, put on a surgical mask, non-95, and purposely put gaps in in. You can feel with your hands how much slower the air comes out of the gaps, even with purposely huge gaps, as compared to no mask at all.

I suspect the change in observed ratio is a combination of several factors: improving standards of care, the decreasing median age of known infection, lead-time bias, and less-restrictive testing criteria. The last three might all be closely related, if you think about it.

I can tell you that everyone I know who works at Michigan Medicine is still saying the same thing: it it worth going to some lengths to reduce the number of people who have to deal with this. Apropos of that, Ann Arbor Public Schools announced a plan yesterday to start the year all-virtual. The school board votes on the plan next week.

Dr Birx held a call with some state officials identifying a dozen or so cities that are of concern to Federal health officials. Miami is on the list, of course. So, too, is Cleveland and Columbus. My in-laws told me last night that the wearing of masks in Sandusky is still pretty lax. Orders or no orders I just don't understand that. What the hell do people need to hear?

You won't do it for your own health. You won't do it to protect others. I'm not sure there is any greater act of selfishness.

I was reading a story about the 1918 pandemic and the fact that college football, while delayed, was still played that year. Photos from Ohio Stadium show people in the stands...nearly all of the wearing masks. In 1918. Get your head out of your ass and into a mask.

Gary Dowdell said:

Shades said:

Is the death data in Florida granular enough to know what the current death count by age is? The perception that I have is that the majority of the new cases are coming from the <40 year old population. Is this age group where the increase in deaths are coming from as well, or are the deaths still primarily from the older population?

Yes. Please see the link below:

Florida COVID Charts through July 4

Also of interest on that report, take a look at some of the "Coronavirus: testing by laboratory" numbers. Some labs are showing 50% positive results and up. Some labs are showing 100% positive results from their tests. Why are the negative test numbers not being reported by those labs? There is more than one lab in that group, so that absolutely has to be skewing the numbers, and is borderline negligent.

I'm sure there's some policy thing or it's just a common practice in the smaller labs. Because, if you add up the counts for the labs reporting 90+%, (I did it back-of-the-envelope style) it's around 4k tests. If you assume they would see a similar 10% positivity, then you should add 36k negative tests to the total. That's out of almost 2.6M tests statewide, so it's not impacting the numbers in a significant way, anyway.

Shades said:

Taking the path of least resistance is generally correct, but the large droplets do not take a hard right/left turn out of your mouth in order to exit unimpeded out of the gaps on the sides. The inertia of the droplets carries them into the mask where they are "captured" by the mask material.

I agree with that part. But the reality is that evaporation eventually kicks in and will leave any unevaporated particles, including viruses, as a residue. We know that the virus can last on surfaces anywhere from 4 hours to 4 days. It still gets back to the original point - if you use or touch a mask improperly, if it has gaps, and is not disposed of properly (or sanitized regularly) then the mask itself can become a mechanism for transmission.

I don't understand the continued willingness to find exceptions or conditions in the importance of the fatality counts. I think most people agree that dead people who don't have to be dead is bad, right? And more to the point, as hospitals are regionally getting saturated again, the carnage goes further than the dead. The cost to the people trying to care for folks is causing very real PTSD. And when hospitals get overwhelmed, care for everything else slips. None of this is new, we've already seen it play out.

More to the point, this is preventable, without shutting everything down.

I’m curious as to if the rise in deaths is still being contained to the young partygoers or if they have have started infecting/killing their grandmas. In essence, have they created a 2nd wave of infections due to their actions?

This from June 29th:

"In looking at all age categories, people in their 80s had the most COVID-19 deaths in Florida: 1,093.

The next highest group was in the 70s, with 836 deaths.

The other categories are:

Below 20: 2 deaths; 20s; 7 deaths; 30s: 32 deaths; 40s: 91 deaths; 50s, 205 deaths: 60s, 487 deaths; 90s, 623 deaths, and 100s, 43 deaths.

The average age of COVID-19 deaths is 77.7."

Source: https://patch.com/florida/across-fl/floridas-3-419-deaths-covid-19-...ross-state

Haven't taken the time to try to interpret, but there you go.

Today there is a report of 11 dead from a nursing home in Newark, Ohio.

Jeff said:

And more to the point, as hospitals are regionally getting saturated again, the carnage goes further than the dead. The cost to the people trying to care for folks is causing very real PTSD. And when hospitals get overwhelmed, care for everything else slips. None of this is new, we've already seen it play out.

I posted this on another forum, and I'll repost it here.

You'll find the link to the data here, which contains information from the CDC about US hospital capacity in three areas for each state (figures through July 14):

The state of Ohio is about average overall as far as the states go. The Ohio percentages are as follows:

• Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds being occupied right now - 55.6%
• Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients right now - 4.4%
• Estimates for the percentage of ICU beds being occupied right now - 40.2%

Let's take a look at one of the nation's hot spots, Florida:

• Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds being occupied right now - 70.8%
• Estimate for the percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients right now - 16.7%
• Estimates for the percentage of ICU beds being occupied right now - 66.6%

There may be some hospitals in some areas that are getting full, but the larger picture shows an entirely different picture. Can anyone reasonably say after looking at those figures that hospitals across the US are reaching critical mass?

I will concede that one problem with the focus on hospitals reaching "saturation", at least here in Florida, is that the missing part of the story here is that hospitals are making an effort right now to handle all of their normal patient load AND Covid. Back in March they basically cleared out the hospitals, stopped elective surgeries, etc to make way for what they thought would be an influx of Covid patients. This costs hospitals like the Cleveland Clinic a LOT of money. They will do just about anything to avoid that happening again.

On the other hand, those who would dismiss the death count as high but relatively low in proportion to the number of positive cases gloss over a LOT of people who are getting significantly ill and spending a lot of time in hospitals...even if they do recover. That is taxing on the medical profession and we will don't really know the long term effects of this virus on people who get the disease and "recover".

Bottom line, whether you think leaders are being alarmist or not...they need to be. Even with alarmist language a lot of people don't seem to be taking this seriously. Remember when this was supposed to "go away" in the heat of the summer? Remember when the summer would be the time for us to prepare for the likely "second wave" of late fall/winter? If this is the summer lull of the disease I am very concerned about a winter without a vaccine is going to look like.

No, it's not serious everywhere, but what do you think is going to happen when the people where you live get bored like they did in Florida and Texas? You know why things suck here? Because people were like, "Well, we're not New York, so let's go dry humping in bars and resume the pool parties and barbecues!" I don't understand this irrational exuberance that it's always someone else's problem. Until it's not.

I've only got one death in my social circles, separated by one degree, but plenty who have been sick. One of my friends up in JAX was sick for two months, and he still doesn't feel "right." I've got family in Toledo that are going on week three. To Don's point, "not dead" doesn't mean that people walk away after a week of sniffles. My boss, who is NYC-based, said he was scratching his head over the flare ups, and he's kind of annoyed by it. As he put it, they essentially had to beta test a serious outbreak in New York, and it's like no one elsewhere in the US learned anything from it.

That denial certainly annoys me. Those numbers are human beings, someone's family. We know now that simple mitigation, and some relatively minor sacrifice in the next six to nine months, will save people. And yet, someone is always making an argument about why it's no big deal. If that attitude doesn't change, the cautionary tale will be everyone's tale.