Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Posted Friday, January 24, 2020 11:49 AM | Contributed by Tekwardo

Shanghai Disneyland will close its gates on Saturday in an effort to stop the spread of a new SARS-like virus that has killed 26 people and sickened at least 881, primarily in China. It’s not known when the theme park may reopen.

Read more from Gizmodo.

Related parks

Wednesday, April 29, 2020 4:12 PM
Lord Gonchar's avatar

Jeff said:

Is it practical to segment and hide entire portions of the population?

More practical than shutting down for everyone regardless of risk, I think. I mean, we can use a sledgehammer or a scalpel. Plus, we're already doing it with essential vs non-essential workers. We just divide the people up differently using a different metric - that arguably mitigates risk more effectively.

They don't have their own grocery stores and such.

No, but the opportunity to create markets with delivery or specialized services - even temporarily - seems like a positive from a negative.

I haven't seen any conclusive indication that huge numbers of people are asymptomatic, but they're the problematic infection vector and reason we've had to lock down.

I included that as part of the individual risk equation question. This is more about determining individual risk.

And someone here has to be enough of a math nerd to show me how that would work numerically.

But the point you bring up I think is what everyone is looking at: How do you make it relatively safe for people to go out into the world, or determine who is safe to go into the world.

I think the real, observable data makes it pretty clear. If you under 45, your risk is minimal. (less than pneumonia)

Because you can't predict who will get sick and die, and frankly the 40-something number is too high for my comfort, those that can process it and not know it are safest for themselves, and most dangerous for everyone else. I don't know how you reconcile that.

And this is where our differences show. I think the 40-something number is laughably small. (still less deaths than pneumonia - even when Covid-19-related pneumonia is accounted for if I'm reading that correctly)

I guess we don't know it, we're playing the odds - which again, seems more sensical than how we actually decided to allow people to move about.

Under 65 accounts for 20% of deaths...and that's after we've broken people down into asymptomatic/symptomatic. (which by many accounts is potentially an 80/20 split) If you're under 65 you have to be the 1-in-5 that shows symptoms and then you have to be the 1-in-100 that dies. And that number goes down dramatically if you measure those under 45. (I hate to be that guy, but at that point for those demographics, the numbers are very similar or better than the flu)

I don't know. My math instinct as a non-expert admitting a degree of cluelessness and asking for help just feels like we've overblowing the actual risk many of us have based on numbers skewed by a ridiculously lopsided mortality rate among the elderly.


+2Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 4:25 PM
eightdotthree's avatar

...numbers skewed by a ridiculously lopsided mortality rate among the elderly.

The high mortality rate for the elderly could be skewed by how bad nursing home outbreaks have been while the rest of us have been healthy at home. 60% of PA's Covid-19 deaths have come from senior living homes.


+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 4:26 PM

That is a good find Gonch.

The first thing that jumped out at me is, I know its not the flue, but for people 24 and under it is better than the flue, at least from a pure death count perspective.

Sorry - couldn't resist.

+1Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 4:45 PM

Jeff said:

There is also increasing evidence that stresses on the health care system and fears about catching the disease have caused some Americans to die from ailments that are typically treatable. A recent draft paper found that hospital admissions for a major type of heart attack fell by 38 percent in nine major U.S. hospitals in March. In a normal year, cardiovascular disease is the country’s leading cause of death.

This was always the concern and a factor to push curve flattening. On the plus side, automotive deaths are way down.

I don't think the outcome of the article has to do with a non-flattened curve at all. The next part of the article says they expected there to be a higher incidence of heart issues during this time frame for various reasons and...

Potential etiologies for the decrease in STEMI PPCI activations include avoidance of medical care due to social distancing or concerns of contracting COVID-19 in the hospital, STEMI misdiagnosis, and increased use of pharmacological reperfusion due to COVID-19. As the pandemic continues, we plan to continue to follow this early signal and investigate its causes. It is particularly crucial to understand if patient-based anxiety is decreasing presentation of STEMI patients to the US hospital system.

That tells me that people were not being treated for the heart issue, not because of hospital overloading, but rather because they were too scared to go to the hospital. They were worried that they might catch Covid. In other words people were so afraid of catching Covid that they in essence chose to die of a heart attack.

+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:03 PM
Jeff's avatar

Yeah, totally understand that, but behavior and socioeconomic based outcomes (like the fact that the poor generally fare worse in all health issues) are still outcomes. It wasn't my intention to imply that overwhelmed hospitals were the only possible cause.


Jeff - Editor - CoasterBuzz.com - My Blog - Silly Nonsense

+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:13 PM
Vater's avatar

Shades said:

I know its not the flue, but for people 24 and under it is better than the flue

Last edited by Vater, Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:55 PM
+15Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:22 PM
eightdotthree's avatar

New Coasterbuzz meme?


+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:34 PM

C'mon guys - give me a brake!

+12Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:52 PM
Vater's avatar

eightdotthree said:

New Coasterbuzz meme?

Oh man, I never even thought to add those. Done!

+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 5:58 PM

Florida will begin the reopening process on Monday

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-reopening-plan/32320807

What a weird press conference

+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 6:47 PM
Jeff's avatar

I guess he made a comment about the outbreak not being as bad as they expected. Well, yeah, because the counties and municipalities didn't wait to act like the state did.


Jeff - Editor - CoasterBuzz.com - My Blog - Silly Nonsense

+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 7:22 PM

You and I may disagree on things in regards to this on here, but I think we can both agree that Jerry Demmings really helped us have some rationality here in OC.

Additionally, that made me realize that even though I've only ever met one of you from this thread in person, and even though we've had our pissing matches and disagreements in regards to all things COVID-19 here, the overall level of civility and respect here is actually impressive. We may disagree on things, but unlike in so many situations in our country in the last several years, I feel like there has still been respect on both sides of the argument on here. Jabs and ball busting, yes. But civility and respect. And in this day and age, that's appreciated.

+7Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 7:44 PM
Vater's avatar

Sucks.

High five!

+6Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 8:02 PM
ApolloAndy's avatar

Jeff said:

I would have never thought to compare overall death count to derive the net deaths related to Covid-19.

There is also increasing evidence that stresses on the health care system and fears about catching the disease have caused some Americans to die from ailments that are typically treatable. A recent draft paper found that hospital admissions for a major type of heart attack fell by 38 percent in nine major U.S. hospitals in March. In a normal year, cardiovascular disease is the country’s leading cause of death.

This was always the concern and a factor to push curve flattening. On the plus side, automotive deaths are way down.

It would be super interesting to try to suss out which causes of death were positively impacted by corona virus and which were negatively impacted. Same for shelter in place orders. I mean, obviously, people dying of COVID-19 is way up from last year, but I have to assume suicides are also up. If there's a noticeable uptick in heart attack related deaths, is that because people are getting anxious and stressed about working from home while homeschooling? Or is it because someone didn't want to go the hospital?


Hobbes: "What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?"
Calvin: "If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun."

+1Loading
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 9:56 PM
eightdotthree's avatar

Good news for traditional amusement parks?


+0
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 10:38 PM
Jeff's avatar

It's really hard to research that subject since you need to put a lot of infected people into a population to test the theory. (Trying to get vaccine trials in humans is also hard when infection rates are on the decline from social distance mitigation.) But there was a peer reviewed study that modeled infection spread in a specific restaurant in China that was fascinating. Based on proximity and air flow caused by the HVAC, they could model the movement of the virus through the air.


Jeff - Editor - CoasterBuzz.com - My Blog - Silly Nonsense

+0
Thursday, April 30, 2020 12:07 AM
Lord Gonchar's avatar

eightdotthree said:

The high mortality rate for the elderly could be skewed by how bad nursing home outbreaks have been while the rest of us have been healthy at home. 60% of PA's Covid-19 deaths have come from senior living homes.

Could be. Except that when the entire population is that age, we'll never know if it's the close quarters and general spread or the age of those infected. And unless 60% or more of the known cases are also in senior living homes, then that would sort of lean towards supporting my theory (for instance, if 30% of known infections, but 60% of deaths, occur in senior living facilities then they are more susceptible.)

Although, as far as I understand, a similar thing is occuring in prisons as far as spread goes and death rates aren't nearly that high. I specifically remember posting somewhere along the way about a prison here in Ohio with nearly 2000 confirmed cases and no fatalities. Similar situations, but far different representation as far as age groups.

I don't know. You didn't sell me.


+1Loading
Thursday, April 30, 2020 9:00 AM
eightdotthree's avatar

Oh. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you convinced in a Coasterbuzz discussion. I wouldn’t dare.

Looks like this is the study on AC spread. I’d really like to know the viral load while it’s in the air inside vs outside. Whats the likelihood of the virus spreading via booths inside vs café tables set up outside?


+1Loading
Thursday, April 30, 2020 11:33 AM
HeyIsntThatRob?'s avatar

More poop news, Here's a study in Switzerland where waste water could be used as an early detection method for flareups in the virus.

This could be an interesting trend where existing infrastructure could be used as a tool to monitor future illness outbreaks and better identify the origins and spread of it.

+0
Thursday, April 30, 2020 3:33 PM
Lord Gonchar's avatar

And right on cue, Ohio did a follow-up today in regards to the prison thing I was mentioning in the post above.

Some highlights:

The result: "There's way more people that are asymptomatic and positive than we ever dreamed of," Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction Director Annette Chambers-Smith said.

Yet another instance of anecdotal evidence that this is spread much further than we understand. Although Dr. Acton did say, “We really can’t say a lot about the general population yet." But any public figure acting responsibly is going to say that.

Nearly one-in-four of Ohio's confirmed COVID-19 cases is a person incarcerated in the state's prisons.

After testing 5,676 inmates, Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction found 68.5% of them, or 3,890 prisoners, had COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Another 419 staff members have contracted the disease as well.

To date, two staff members and 29 prisoners have died after contracting COVID-19.

Here's another instance of a contained population where spread has happened. No idea on the age demo (I would assume it skews younger, but I have nothing to base that on - the article says, "Those locations were tested because they had sick inmates or older inmates who might be most susceptible to the disease." but doesn't elaborate more. Who knows what "had" means in this case?)

Again, total disclaimer - Just my observations and I'm just a guy throwing ideas out there.

I think we're gonna find that it's highly contagious, and very dangerous for the elderly or compromised. A combo that makes for scary numbers. I think once you hit us middle-aged folks there's a threat, but not a "shut everything down, hide the women and children" kind of threat. Nothing a heightened awareness and understanding that you're reaching an age where the flu can get you too wouldn't get us through. Our youngest population is likely seeing less threat than they do from a common flu.

(And I'm putting this out there knowing my unqualified opinion is incredibly easy to pick apart. I just want to share because I'm not seeing anyone break it down like this...which means either it's a stupid idea or we're missing the forest for the trees)

Last edited by Lord Gonchar, Thursday, April 30, 2020 3:37 PM
+2Loading

You must be logged in to post

POP Forums - ©2022, POP World Media, LLC
Loading...