Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

It has been demonstrated on here that we in fact cannot do the math.

And that we are wrong

Lord Gonchar said:

Also, f'n NYC.

f'n tourists who visit NYC.

RideMan said:

I was born in June, 1970; you can do the math!

By my calcs that makes you 49 years old. That gives you 1 month of enjoying the low virus death rate. But in June you have to shut it down. Party hard Dave while you still can.

‘67 here and like Jeff’s wife allergies and minor asthma except if I get some sort respiratory illness then the asthma really kicks in and I cough a ton. Plus sleep apnea.

If schools stay online in the fall I am fine with that and my boys will just have to adapt, but if they open back up I don’t know what to do. Just practice good hygiene and hope for the best, I guess.

There is one thing which may have changed substantially from mid-March which is some of the cultural pieces. Nobody shakes hands or touches their face, masks are ubiquitous, stores have lines out front and limited capacity, there are designated high risk shopping times at the beginning of the day, washing hands and disinfecting are much more frequent, etc. etc. I wonder/hope/"sort of doubt, but who knows" if those simple cultural shifts will change outcomes meaningfully compared to if we had just let things run their course in March, which I assume we mostly agree would not have been the correct course of action.

Without robust contact tracing we may never know. Things will have to get much much worse before our leadership actually leads their people to accept and support it.

ApolloAndy said:

There is one thing which may have changed substantially from mid-March which is some of the cultural pieces. Nobody shakes hands or touches their face, masks are ubiquitous, stores have lines out front and limited capacity, there are designated high risk shopping times at the beginning of the day, washing hands and disinfecting are much more frequent, etc. etc.

I think I live in a different world than you guys most of the time.

But I've been saying all along (here and Facebook conversations) that my real world experience doesn't mirror what the various screens in my life keep telling me.

Funny how, even within the context of a pandemic, our personal experiences can vary so widely.

And therein lies the problem: Without consistent direction implemented widely, the results suck. Sure, New Zealand might literally be an island, but they acted intentionally and specifically, early. The US has been a patchwork of vague ideas that vary state to state, county to county, and that's why nothing has effectively changed in two months.

I hope Andy is right, that even the basic mitigation of masks and hand washing and such will limit infection rates, but I'm not optimistic.

Jeff said:

I hope Andy is right, that even the basic mitigation of masks and hand washing and such will limit infection rates, but I'm not optimistic.

I'm banking more on the idea that it's not as much of a threat to the general population as we initially thought (or still sort of believe) and that some simple measures to mitigate the risk to our most vulnerable will keep deaths relatively in check while life continues along in mostly normal mode.

But what are you basing that on other than a feeling?

Well, certainly not specific, citable expert opinion, if that's what you're after. If I made every deciion based on only quantifiable logic, I'd...I'd...I don't know what I'd do or be, but that's so far from who I am that I can't even find the right phrase to finish the sentence.

I can't give you what you want here. You and I see this and approach the whole thing from very different places with very different attitudes and make decisions in very different ways and even have differing expectations and differing acceptable outcomes even though we have access to all the same information (and have shared a large amount of it with each other).

*shrug*

As someone approaching this from the Gonch side of the aisle, I can say that I am approaching this more from my own personal set of priorities. Yes, I read the facts and am aware of the data and the science. But I have also made the decision to keep things as normal as I can, and the risk is worth it to me. I ate in a restaurant last night for the first time. I plan to get a haircut next week (Florida just announced salons and barber shops can reopen Monday). As soon as the parks reopen I will make whatever reservation I need to make to go ride Mummy and walk down Main Street USA. Maybe not on Day One - I'll let them figure out the new way of operations. But I'll be there the first week. Once Cedar Fair decides what they are going to do, I plan to book a $19 Frontier flight to ride Orion in Cincinnati, get some Magnum and Steel Vengeance time in Sandusky, and see my parents in Cleveland.

Am I aware of the risk? Of course. Have I made the individual decision that participating in these activities is "worth" that risk to me? I have. I understand and respect that some (many) folks aren't ready to venture back into the world, and I completely understand the reasoning for that. But if things are starting to reopen, am I selfish for going out into the world and partaking in my favorite things? I'm sure if I ask 10 people I'll get 10 answers. But if I wind up getting COVID-19 this summer because I went out into the world, I take 100% responsibility for that.

I, as well, side with the Gonch/Brett side of the fence. I am ready to book flights and head to some parks, hit up some breweries and get back to a somewhat normal life. I know the risks, I'll take the chances when there is actually some place to go. At this time there isnt, so I'll just continue to chill out with my furry coworker and the girlfriend in the meantime and make some killer food and beer.

So CP just killed every event this summer including the 150 Celebration (and the half-marathon).

Which makes me wonder a point, as we see other amusement park reopening “ideas” roll out, can the Sandusky park function with a local labor pool without dorming employees? I imagine beyond the social distancing in the park, the employee dorms add a whole another piece of complexity. Shared accommodations, communal bathrooms…

I remember back to college, when first going into dorm life and meningitis was suddenly a concern when it never previous was in life. Those type of environments are petri dishes too. Every single major university is going to have the same issue, but they’re not trying to open before August.

They were quick to point out they are still preparing some of our favorite rides and attractions for a yet to be determined 2020 operating season. I see it as Halloweekends Fridays when/if they get the place going this year.

I get where you guys are coming from. It's just not a place I can relate to. Professionally, I have to make decisions every day about how I communicate expectations direct my teams. It's always based on the data that I have, to make the decision that is least likely to result in disappointment.

Right now, the decisions you guys are making, are likely to lead to a great deal of disappointment. 😁

This is maybe starting to get into "philosophy of science and politics" territory, but there is something to be said for the separation between the prediction and the response. It's one thing for science to say, "We predict global warming/corona virus/anti-vaxxers will cause X result at Y time." It's a similar thing to say, "If we take Z action, we predict we will avoid X result." It's kind of a different thing to say, "Therefore we must take Z action to avoid X result." Maybe Gonch's thing is "if 'everyone' says we have to avoid X result, by doing Z action, I usually am more inclined to accept some result less than X, so I will usually be happy with some action less than Z"?

Don't want to put words (or anything else) in Gonch's mouth, but that's what I think I'm hearing.

Jeff said:

Right now, the decisions you guys are making, are likely to lead to a great deal of disappointment. 😁

Disappointment in what way? If the parks open this summer but at minimal capacity and with Six Flags style operations and ride availability, I'll still be happy to be walking through the parks with close friends. If I'm used to riding Magnum, say, 25 times a season, I'll be happier to ride 5 times than 0. And if the parks don't open, the sense of disappointment is no less or no more than if they did open but I didn't go.

Or disappointment that the parks opening will lead to the big scary second wave and close again? If that's the case, at least I got out and rode a few rides and ate an overpriced churro before we have to do this all over again.

Or disappointment that the folks at the Winter Park Great Clips are out of practice and my much needed haircut next week will somehow leave me looking worse?

ApolloAndy said:

Don't want to put words (or anything else) in Gonch's mouth, but that's what I think I'm hearing.

You put it in my mouth and you'll question everything you know to be true.

I'm not sure if that's what I'm saying because I'm not sure what you're saying.

I'm a "go with your gut" guy. I don't think about stuff nearly as much as some of you do. I don't act solely on third-party info or expert opinion as much as some of you do. I don't look at most things as a right-or-wrong, solve the problem, black and white decision to be made like some of you guys seem to. I don't always do what seems most logical to that kind of thinker.

It's true that science doesn't care about my feelings, but I have a bit of a track record of playing it by feel that rarely lets me down. My own inner Gonch expert if you will. I trust that guy implicitly.

That doesn't mean I ignore facts or dismiss information. It means I don't feel particularly beholden to to those things. They're tools. Use them accordingly. It doesn't matter how you get to the result if the result is one you deem favorable.

Sometimes that result comes from direct advice, sometimes from a "gut feeling" moment, sometimes from a process or data set, sometimes from that one guy you know...often from some combination. But in the end I trust my ability to determine what gets me to that result.

In this case my post in question was:

"I'm banking more on the idea that it's not as much of a threat to the general population as we initially thought (or still sort of believe) and that some simple measures to mitigate the risk to our most vulnerable will keep deaths relatively in check while life continues along in mostly normal mode."

Does it matter how I got there if it turns out I was correct?

I said back on April 20th:

"If the weird homeless guy down the street can prove he's cured cancer repeatedly, his lack of a PhD isn't going to be a problem."

Same idea. I don't care how you got there if the result is favorable. I'd rather have a result than a credential or process.

That's the essensce of what I'm getting at.