Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Or maybe it was spreading late last year

I would be curious to see what the non New York case increase is if we also exclude the meat packing plant cases. https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/05/05/multimedia/top-outbreaks...eLarge.png]Among the 10 metropolitan areas with the most new confirmed virus cases per capita, half are home to a meat processing plant where workers evidently have the virus.

The real news story of the day comes out of Port Clinton, OH

Just sharing this here to give everyone a brief respite and share a story about what the first responders in Port Clinton were up against recently. Keep an eye out for this woman at CP later this summer. One can only assume that since she is a local she took advantage of the Gold Pass deal last fall.

And now back to the COVID-19 conversation.

As long as she wore a mask while the firemen were quenching her fire I don't see what the problem is.

Flipping through channels I saw that WarGames was on last week (may well have been 2 months ago as the days and weeks tend to blur together at this point). End of the movie where Joshua is trying to figure out a way to "win" a nuclear war reminded me of Covid. Eventually the computer figured out that the only way to "win" a nuclear war was not to have one (strange game, only winning move is not to play).

Covid is similar in that there doesn't appear to be a good way out of it. Can simulate a whole host of scenarios in terms of locking down fully/partially and restarting partially/fully but none of the results would appear to be good (at least on one level or another). Can have charts and graphs with predicted case numbers/deaths and economic damages with each different scenario (looking for the "best" outcome). Big difference though is not having a pandemic isn't an option. Unfortunately.

Lord Gonchar said:

We're going to let the line out until we see hospitals approach their limits and then hold tight and fine tune. That's what I hear everytime someone utters the phrase "the new normal" - that equilibrium point will be the new normal.

I want to believe this, but it goes back to how do you "hold tight and fine tune" after you've "let the line out" when you're dealing with expontential growth? That R naught here... Too quickly from zero to overwhelm.

As you said in the next point.

Lord Gonchar said:

I can't imagine them re-opening things to whatever degree and then pulling back in any significant way. Imagine the backlash. The proverbial **** would really have to hit the fan for them to say, "We went too far. We're going back."

I agree with this too... BUT we're headed exactly into that direction because unless summer really torches this thing. Open up: Expontential growth. Mid-March all over again.

We can try it once, so it is critical to get the timing right. Maybe social distancing will work enough but the National trends don't indicate good enough #'s in the places that are starting already. So instead of waiting another month, it seems like we're stacking for failure fighting what was already going to be difficult (exponential growth). Those places with #'s actually on the decline (like the tri-state) aren't yet trying to start because they have more first hand insight into the virus' exponential rage and better acknowledge the reality of the curve (my opinion).

EDIT: I realize Ohio is like the one state exception here being a place that both didn't see a huge (comparatively) case load and also looks like it is already on the decline (or at least stabilization). So if you want to reopen Ohio, how to you keep it that way, with the lack of imposed domestic travel restrictions? "Cause I want to go celebrate the CP 150th and ride Orion (even though it sucks). My amusement parks aren't open."

I wouldn't take a reopening date more then three weeks out with more then a grain of salt.

Lord Gonchar said:

At best, maybe we're gambling that our numbers are off and once you let this thing start to spread, the threat for the majority of the population out and about on a day-to-day basis (read: younger) isn't nearly as high as less granular numbers would suggest.

Hopefully. In fact I was thinking on the same basis exploring my personal data point.

The urgent care two buildings away set up a walk in serology tent test. Since I am still moving around for work through this all and NYC was coming in with a 1:4 hit rate, I figured I had a decent bet on antibodies. I did not. (But according to MY Doctor the existing test out can confuse Covid, with influenza and common cold, and false positives are more likely then false negatives.) I've seen that implied but not stated outright in news ticker (but haven't been deep diving into the antibody research either. I'm sure someone can find a link). There is a better test coming (always right?) This was convenience a block closer then the grocery store...

In ways it was a relief to not have yet been infected with something that there is no data on the long term implications of. But the otherside of the coin, it would have cut down a lot of the stress/worry/necessity of continued isolation precautions, ect... Especially if we're ultimately going there anyway.

I get confused by the language but from what I understand if you test positive for the antibodies it's known to be very accurate where as if you test negative, the test is known to be inaccurate more often.

Regarding Ohio. Using covid-19.healthdata.org it appears that new infections are relatively flat even as testing has increased.

Lord Gonchar said:

We're going to let the line out until we see hospitals approach their limits and then hold tight and fine tune.

.

.

I can't imagine them re-opening things to whatever degree and then pulling back in any significant way. Imagine the backlash. The proverbial **** would really have to hit the fan for them to say, "We went too far. We're going back."

As Kstr 737 said, I agree with all of these points and I think they are incredibly scary. Because a single super-spread event (some crazy person who doesn't care or someone who cares but just wanted to have a few friends over, who also just wanted to have a few friends over, who wanted to go a few restaurants) and then what? We just let those thousands of people die? Maybe people are willing to accept that but I really, genuinely think the general public just doesn't believe that is a possible outcome.

Lord Gonchar said:

At best, maybe we're gambling that our numbers are off and once you let this thing start to spread, the threat for the majority of the population out and about on a day-to-day basis (read: younger) isn't nearly as high as less granular numbers would suggest.

I think this is 100% what we're doing and I hope it goes well. It may go quite well for younger populations, but I predict it will not go well in nursing homes. And this is not a gamble I think we should be taking.

Thing is, it already hasn't gone well in nursing homes, and they've been locked down for months now.

Communal living, high urban density, and public transit are proving to be the largest contributors to this thing.

But hey, if it kills off hot-desking and open plan offices maybe some good will come of it.....

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

Open offices with more than five or six people are terrible. I don't know why we keep ignoring the research that shows how bad it is for productivity.

My employer is constructing a new office that relies on open seating. We work from home two days a week so the floor plan takes that into account to save some money so we will have to find a new desk every day. We’ve been 100% remote since the pandemic took hold so I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

I expect that most people who are able to work from home will continue to do so. Trick is there are a lot of jobs where that isn't possible or where there are certain inefficiencies which make it less than ideal.

At my workplace, we basically just have manufacturing and lab technicians back at the moment. All of engineering is at home for the most part, unless required to support the lab.

Each week, it appears they will bring more people back in. I have personally been at home for a month or so, I expect it will be another 2-3 weeks for me before it's "limited" access into our facility to do some testing in the lab if able. But who knows.

They are requiring masks outside of our cubicles, temp checks and whatever else. Be interesting... Glad I'm at home now anyway as I blew my back out last week and it's been a bit rough...

On a side note, my dad has to have his thyroid removed next week (expected cancer). Hospital is requiring him to take a COVID test before the procedure, as well as my mom as she will be the only one able to wait (limit 1 person) during the procedure. I wonder if they will be doing antibody tests as well, as they both think they had it a few months ago. Would be interesting if they got confirmation on it, but it may just be a normal test from the sounds of it.

The whole office setup is something I am curious about at work. We haven't heard anything yet but our offices are generally small and packed with people. Granted those in my office are my close friends and we spend a ton of time together outside of work, but there isn't an option space wise to move people about in our building if they even wanted to. Working from home isn't really much of an option once we get deep into our projects and at this point I don't want to work from home anymore...ha.

BrettV said:

On a personal note, my thoughts are with your dad and family. I am also genuinely curious how the testing will work for them, and I think it's great they are allowing your mom to be a visitor with him. I know in many places in the past two months that hasn't been an option.

Our workplace is gearing up as well. The building is coming back to life and we are expected to open back up to the public with limited services by the end of the month. The plexiglass has gone up at all major service points.

Thanks! He is in good spirits, considering. Supposedly if you are to get cancer, the doctor told him this is the one you "want". They believe after removal, he should be good unless they find it went elsewhere, but the chances are low for that. That is IF once removed, they confirm it is cancer. It's not 100% yet. But fingers crossed! Let you know how it goes!

99er said:

The whole office setup is something I am curious about at work. We haven't heard anything yet but our offices are generally small and packed with people. Granted those in my office are my close friends and we spend a ton of time together outside of work, but there isn't an option space wise to move people about in our building if they even wanted to. Working from home isn't really much of an option once we get deep into our projects and at this point I don't want to work from home anymore...ha.

I work at a large public library, and some of the behind the scenes folks are able to work from home indefinitely. Others really depend on the building being open and having our typical schedule of events, classes, and programs for 95% of their job. It will be very interesting to see what reopening looks like for us.

eightdotthree said:

Regarding Ohio. Using covid-19.healthdata.org it appears that new infections are relatively flat even as testing has increased.

Was looking at the new Ohio numbers today after the announcement that we're kinda opening it back up next week. Tying it back to the age thing I was wonking about a few days ago...

Here in Ohio we have a total 1271 deaths as of today's report.

Of those 1271 deaths, a grand total of 28 come from those aged under 50. (and only 8 deaths under 40)

That's insanity.

97.8% of the deaths in Ohio are people 50 or older.

The mortality rate is currently at .0018 for that age group (<50) in Ohio. If the actual infection rate is just double the tested infection rate, the mortality rate for those under 50 in Ohio is right around that of the flu.

The mortality rate for those over 70, however is 22%.

I really have nothing beyond that. I still think this is the key to reopening and proceeding. It wil be interesting to watch those numbers over the next month as we begin to open and the virus spreads and such.

Also, f'n NYC.

And even more interesting, the NYC infection seemed to stem from Europe, not China, by way of an earlier report as they traced the various minor mutations. Regardless, it spread awfully fast.

My wife is 50 with a history of bronchitis, minor asthma and respiratory allergies, so we're obviously not going to be out in the world until we can vaccinate or be confident about treatment.

Similar situation here. Taking the opposite approach - cautious optimism.

I saw something recently that indicated that the "NYC strain" that came from Europe was apparently more contagious and resulted in worse illnesses than the "Seattle strain" that came from China. I didn't get into the details, but apparently the NYC strain accounted for something like 75% of infections in the Midwest.

I work(ed) in a huge 24/7 call center where everybody had to find a new desk every day. That, more than anything else about the job, quite frankly *sucked*. When all this started, the company CEO announced that *nobody* would be working from home. Three weeks later, almost our entire call center is working from home (including me). I'm sure I am not the only one who is in no hurry to return to the office; I have a really nice setup here and am liking it a lot; and I'm loving the 10-second commute. Oh, and the statistics Lord Gonchar talked about are a little frightening: I was born in June, 1970; you can do the math!

--Dave Althoff, Jr.