Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Posted Friday, January 24, 2020 11:49 AM | Contributed by Tekwardo

Shanghai Disneyland will close its gates on Saturday in an effort to stop the spread of a new SARS-like virus that has killed 26 people and sickened at least 881, primarily in China. It’s not known when the theme park may reopen.

Read more from Gizmodo.

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Friday, April 17, 2020 4:48 PM
Lord Gonchar's avatar

OhioStater said:

I think the next week or so will be "exciting" (relatively speaking) with the first results of these tests coming out.

Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.

(Also, I think this is that Stanford study from a few pages back)

Last edited by Lord Gonchar, Friday, April 17, 2020 4:49 PM
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Friday, April 17, 2020 6:15 PM
Jeff's avatar

That's scary as hell. That there can be more infection vectors than we can obviously detect makes this exponentially worse. As some of you know, one of our own is on a ventilator in NYC. It's not abstract anymore.


Jeff - Editor - CoasterBuzz.com - My Blog - Silly Nonsense

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Friday, April 17, 2020 7:22 PM

Not surprised at all. Pretty obvious there would be farrrrr more people who has/had it than they have reported up this point worldwide.

Herd immunity may be closer than expected.

Last edited by SteveWoA, Friday, April 17, 2020 7:35 PM
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Friday, April 17, 2020 8:00 PM
TheMillenniumRider's avatar

Well since Steve bit then I guess I will too. If a massive number of people have it, then that means the curve will start to go logarithmic since new hosts are possibly much less plentiful. Not really scary so much as a positive in my eyes. The deaths have occurred, if way more people had it then we knew about then we can reopen with less risk of a second big curve.

Quite frankly, reopening things is going to happen sooner than most expect. I have already noticed a large increase in traffic and general activity that wasn't present two weeks ago. People will not simply stay inside and away from everything for very long. The protesting and congregating are evidence of that. At some point people are going to say screw it, I'll take my chances.

Last edited by TheMillenniumRider, Friday, April 17, 2020 8:02 PM
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Friday, April 17, 2020 8:58 PM

I agree with that. Even if theme parks stay closed for a while, people are not going to stay locked in their homes and limit themselves to nothing more than Netflix and walks around the block twice a day for the entire summer. Regardless of what the science says, what the news says, what the recommendations are, people are going to start loosening up their personal restrictions. As we get into May, people will start visiting friends and family, they'll meet up with co workers, start going on "non essential" trips to the store, etc. Our office closed in mid March and we started working from home and at first no one dared consider going in. Monday I had to go in to get some things I left behind and didn't think to bring with me on the last day. Thursday I had to go in again for a few things. Monday I have to go in again to access some stuff on my laptop I can only get when connected to the building wifi. More people went in this week and plan to go in next week here and there.

I get the science. I understand the science. I think many people do. But I also understand that the current social distancing guidelines aren't going to last much longer even if they are recommended and "in effect". People are going to do what they want, and in the coming weeks they are going to want to start returning to normal. Not old normal. But a modified normal. And I can't say I blame people for being ready for the "stuff is starting to reopen and it's time to be cautious use your best judgement" phase of this.

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Friday, April 17, 2020 9:44 PM
OhioStater's avatar

Lord Gonchar said:

Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.

(Also, I think this is that Stanford study from a few pages back)

It is indeed that study; the purpose of which was to try and figure out how wide-spread it has been (not to find out if has been here since 2019).

But, I can't help but pause at what Jeff said. I'm not sure who he is talking about, but sad to hear that.

Last edited by OhioStater, Friday, April 17, 2020 11:11 PM

Promoter of fog.

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Friday, April 17, 2020 9:48 PM
Jeff's avatar

I don't know if it's appropriate to share. I mean, it is private health info.

Even if 10% of the population is infected, that's not a "massive number," nor is it an indication that we're moving toward herd immunity. We don't even know how long post-infection immunity lasts.


Jeff - Editor - CoasterBuzz.com - My Blog - Silly Nonsense

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Friday, April 17, 2020 9:52 PM
OhioStater's avatar

I certainly didn't expect you (or anyone else) to share. Not at all. Just sad to hear one of our own here is suffering.

Last edited by OhioStater, Friday, April 17, 2020 10:01 PM

Promoter of fog.

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Friday, April 17, 2020 10:55 PM

Lord Gonchar said:

Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.

(Also, I think this is that Stanford study from a few pages back)

But if 4%of the population has had it, then 96% of the population has not and is potentially susceptible. Without a proven treatment opening up full on is a mistake.

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Friday, April 17, 2020 11:16 PM
ApolloAndy's avatar

^ this a jillion times.

Herd immunity is not a solution, here. Herd immunity means we failed.

With infinite health care leading to a mortality rate of 1%* and herd immunity at 60%, that would have meant 2,000,000 deaths (328M X 0.01 X 0.6).
Even if the study is right (it's still not peer reviewed, but I'm inclined to be optimistic) and mortality with infinite health care is actually closer to 0.2%**, that's still 400,000 deaths. Sure, that's a hell of a lot better and is definitely cause for some relief, but in this so-called "good case", 400,000 deaths is what it will cost to achieve herd immunity. Even with this potential great news, herd immunity is still a very long ways away (360,000 deaths) and still sounds like complete failure to me.

As Jeff mentioned above, this sword also has a second edge meaning contact tracing is going to be extremely difficult, or perhaps impossible.

*The current estimate on mortality rate for those who have adequate health care, that I'm aware of.
**The projected actual mortality rate from the study is about 0.12 and 0.2%.

Last edited by ApolloAndy, Friday, April 17, 2020 11:52 PM

Hobbes: "What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?"
Calvin: "If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun."

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Friday, April 17, 2020 11:57 PM
ApolloAndy's avatar

BrettV said:

I agree with that. Even if theme parks stay closed for a while, people are not going to stay locked in their homes and limit themselves to nothing more than Netflix and walks around the block twice a day for the entire summer.

Yep. I suspect we'll see a slight uptick 5-7 days from Easter (starting soon). I know a LOT of people that just couldn't resist visiting their friend on Easter and the number of cars parked in driveways and on street sides seems to support that.


Hobbes: "What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?"
Calvin: "If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun."

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 12:13 AM

Looking only at Ohio because those are the numbers I have in front of me...right now we're at 9000 cases and 400 deaths. Not quite correlated because not all 9000 cases have resolved (i.e. some will probably die) but it's all I've got right now. That's a mortality rate of about 4%. Yikes.

If the worst case in the report (80x undercount) is true, though, we don't have 9,000 cases, we have 720,000 cases. But we still have only 400 deaths. THAT is a mortality rate of 0.05%, which is actually pretty insignificant in a population of 11 million.

Honestly, the truth is in the middle somewhere. At this point the most effective way forward is going to be to develop working treatments, and allow the virus to proceed through the population, using behavioral changes to moderate that spread enough to keep from overwhelming the hospitals and ICUs.

And yes, I am concerned about our friend in NYC. A person I do not know well, but I do know, and have known for many years, who quite honestly has had more than a fair share of undeserved challenges.

--Dave Althoff, Jr.


    /X\        _      *** Respect rides. They do not respect you. ***
/XXX\ /X\ /X\_ _ /X\__ _ _ _____
/XXXXX\ /XXX\ /XXXX\_ /X\ /XXXXX\ /X\ /X\ /XXXXX
_/XXXXXXX\__/XXXXX\/XXXXXXXX\_/XXX\_/XXXXXXX\__/XXX\_/XXX\_/\_/XXXXXX

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 11:13 PM
ApolloAndy's avatar

RideMan said:

If the worst case in the report (80x undercount) is true, though, we don't have 9,000 cases, we have 720,000 cases. But we still have only 400 deaths. THAT is a mortality rate of 0.05%, which is actually pretty insignificant in a population of 11 million.

Yeah, I did that math too and arrived at the same conclusion, but for some reason that I can't quite parse, the study said it estimated the true mortality rate at 0.12% to 0.2%. I couldn't figure out how to derive that number given the cases, deaths, and 50 or 80.


Hobbes: "What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?"
Calvin: "If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun."

+0
Sunday, April 19, 2020 8:39 AM
eightdotthree's avatar

Sad to hear about the Coasterbuzzer. I have two family members that had Covid. One had to be hospitalized, the other rode it out from home. Both are recovered/ recovering.

On another note. Universal is testing out some ideas for reopening that range from limiting attendance to testing every employee and guest who enters the park. This is a pretty good summary.

Limiting attendance, virtual queuing, masks, and enhanced cleaning seem like good steps to take.

Last edited by eightdotthree, Sunday, April 19, 2020 8:41 AM
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Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:45 AM
Lord Gonchar's avatar

ApolloAndy said:

Herd immunity is not a solution, here. Herd immunity means we failed.

With infinite health care leading to a mortality rate of 1%* and herd immunity at 60%, that would have meant 2,000,000 deaths (328M X 0.01 X 0.6).
Even if the study is right (it's still not peer reviewed, but I'm inclined to be optimistic) and mortality with infinite health care is actually closer to 0.2%**, that's still 400,000 deaths.

Not a challenge. Two honest questions.

1. What number of deaths would make herd immunity an acceptable path? Again, we're just making a moral judgment call on the slider here - you see 400,000 lives vs 18-to-24 months of restricted living (and the associated deaths that still occur) and call 400,000 lives a failure. What number is "acceptable" here? (and who gets to make that call?)

2.Can we subtract those that die regardless from the herd immunity cost? If 100,000 die even with restrictions/cautions in place, for instance, then isn't the "real" cost in lives to take the herd immunity path 300,000 lives? Does that change the judgement on the slider?

To repeat, not looking for a fight. Looking for some insight from people I enjoy hearing opinions from.

Last edited by Lord Gonchar, Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:46 AM
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Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:58 AM

I don’t know who gets to make the call, but I know who doesn’t.
Flag wavin, hat wearin, gun totin bubbas who are mad they can’t go to BW3 or their wives who need their hair done.
F them.

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 12:09 PM

I'd still choose them over Mitch McConnell

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 4:53 PM
TheMillenniumRider's avatar

ApolloAndy said:

Herd immunity is not a solution, here. Herd immunity means we failed.

Herd immunity is the only possible outcome. How we get there has some variability, but we will get there at some point.

Last edited by TheMillenniumRider, Sunday, April 19, 2020 4:53 PM
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Sunday, April 19, 2020 10:25 PM
Jeff's avatar

You know that's generally achieved by vaccination, right?


Jeff - Editor - CoasterBuzz.com - My Blog - Silly Nonsense

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:41 PM
ApolloAndy's avatar

TheMillenniumRider said:

ApolloAndy said:

Herd immunity is not a solution, here. Herd immunity means we failed.

Herd immunity is the only possible outcome. How we get there has some variability, but we will get there at some point.

Sure. I meant (and thought from context it was clear) herd immunity from transmission in the absence of a vaccine.

Last edited by ApolloAndy, Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:42 PM

Hobbes: "What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?"
Calvin: "If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun."

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