Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Ah yes our old pal....Sweden. :)

If you have time, here's why what they're doing sounds different, even though it's really not...(and one could certainly argue over whether it's actually working based on their own numbers).

But I digress; I should have been more specific. What I meant was for our particular culture, there seems to be little disagreement among the experts. We didnt (and still dont) have the testing capacity that SK does, and we have a vastly different population (and healthcare system) than Sweden. The experts in those countries all have the same goal; to mitigate the virus as much as possible and save lives as many as possible. It should not be a shock that experts from different societies would vary in their approaches. In fact it would be pretty stupid if they didn't

OhioStater said:

The experts in those countries all have the same goal; to mitigate the virus as much as possible and save lives as many as possible.

Ugh. Have to defend Gonch here. So dirty.

That's not the goal. If the universal goal were "save as many lives as possible" we would almost certainly all be doing a lockdown closer to China style where guards with guns are shuttling the sick off to who-knows-where and the healthy are not allowed to leave their homes except for one person every three days. But we value other things like the ability to generate income. We all have different relative of those things vs. lost lives individually and culturally.

UNLESS, (back to being Andy) you can show that a certain course of action decreases both lives lost and income lost. Then you'd be a fool not to take that course of action.

You're so dirty.

You guys make me so happy. However...

This is where we're totally back around the circle:

Gonch said two weeks ago:

We've already made these decisions though. We've planted the flag in a specific spot and accepted the outcome. My wife and kid still go to work 6 days a week because we've decided hotel rooms and pizza are worth the additional risk of keeping those contact points in place.

That's as simplified as I can make the concept. Could we reduce the spread further by not deciding hotels rooms and pizza are essential? Absolutely, but we didn't.

I've had a delivery truck (UPS, FedEx, Amazon) at my house almost daily since this started (been a great time to finish the little home projects after getting back in behind the tornado). We've decided that everyone touching those boxes and bringing them to my house is worth the risk so that I can get new doorknobs. If lives were all that mattered, we'd eliminate all the contact points where we pack, move, load, ship, unload and deliver those doorknobs to save more lives. But we didn't.

On the flip side, Ohio kept grocery stores open. We decided that risk was worth it. But then we readjusted and added limits to how many people at a time could be inside. We felt that reducing those contact points made sense in the tradeoff of inconvenience for lives.

And while I get that the argument for some is "What right do you have to expose my family to something that could kill them?"

I also get that the argument for others is, "What right do you have to keep me from something I need to stay alive?"

And here's where I get to feel dirty and agree with Andy:

UNLESS, (back to being Andy) you can show that a certain course of action decreases both lives lost and income lost. Then you'd be a fool not to take that course of action.

Yes. This. I think we all agree here. The best course is one that satisfies all sides as much as possible.

But in the absence of that, how do you favor killing people? Exposure to the virus? Lack of means due to umemployment? Mental health due to corn teen? Overwhelming the health care system? High blood pressure due to online forum debates about the best course of action?

Thanks to Willie Nelson's live show my blood pressure is at an all time low.

Jesus you guys are dirty.

I wish I could quit you.....

Experts generally do agree. That some exist that don't agree doesn't mean there isn't general consensus.

Now seems like a great time to legalize weed nationally.

You know, what we have going on right here in this thread is a perfect sample of the population, or the bigger picture going on in the country. Jeff says experts generally do agree, I will agree with that by adding to it. Experts in the same field generally agree on many things. However, this situation is not affecting just health, it has much bigger far reaching implications.

I believe what we have been doing here is a perfect little snapshot of what Trump has been dealing with since this all started (minus the poop discussion, maybe). He has a bunch of "experts" in various fields, (education, health, economics, trade policy, whatever), that are all shouting in his ear telling him you need to do this now before the world implodes. Then he has the states in his ears going "gimme gimme gimme". Then others complaining that he needs to set policy, others telling him to stay out of it. Whatever. I would throw my hands up and give them all the finger and walk out. But that is also why I don't run the country.

We have seen various countries handle this in different ways, S. Korea controlled it without mass lockdown, China controlled it with mass lockdown, Italy didn't do much until it took root and lost a bunch of lives, but one thing they all have in common is that they got past the hump and all moved forward. We can sit here and debate the correct course of action, but as I alluded to in prior posts, regardless of what action we take the cycle with continue and the machine will move forward.

Andy wants to save lives, Gonch wants to save less lives, apparently Jeff just wants to get high based on his last post. (Did we drive you to insanity yet? You keep coming back for more it seems.) :)

The solution presented depends on the expert you consult and the field they represent. Everyone has different measures of success and metrics they must meet. Not every expert's goal is maximum lives saved. Some of this falls to the metrics, the job they perform, and the ethical branch they most closely align with.

Well, it's Jeff's site, he doesn't really come back around...

And you want to let the world burn and reopen your hotel? Whose gonna show up? From Atlas Shrugged to Art of the Deal.

Speaking of hotels, did SFGAdv get theirs' yet?

Here's an interesting data point (to me at least).

Here in Ohio, more than 20% of our confirmed cases come from one prison - where they have a working population of 2623, they show 1828 inmates and 109 staff testing positive. They have no deaths.

I get that this is a small, specific sample, but it's one example of an entire population being tested and the results are interesting. Clearly the best defense against COVID-19 is prison food.

Kstr 737 said:

Well, it's Jeff's site, he doesn't really come back around...

And you want to let the world burn and reopen your hotel? Whose gonna show up? From Atlas Shrugged to Art of the Deal.

I meant this thread, I know it's his site, still doesn't mean he partakes in every discussion, or has to by default. It's kind of like we joked earlier, but yet we all continue to come back. I guess you missed my smiley? In this day and age of emojis I still enjoy a good old school sideways smile.

What gives you the impression that I want the world to burn. That wouldn't help anything.

I got that impression from the sideways smile.

And every point you've made it the last 40 pages.

To avoid simply being known as the guy who made a poop joke in the midst of the pandemic, let me throw these coals on the fire

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-cont...-effective

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/sweden-...zens-state

As the resident Bran Muffin Guy® (also poop-related), there's no shame in being known as the Pandemic Poop Joke Guy®.

BrettV said:

To avoid simply being known as the guy who made a poop joke in the midst of the pandemic, let me throw these coals on the fire

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-cont...-effective

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/sweden-...zens-state

That guardian article is good reading. It's almost certainly the case that seemingly universal terms like "social distancing," "shelter-in-place," and "lock down" get implemented in a wide range of ways depending on culture, both nationally and state wise. I have to back and reread that article more carefully.

That was my point above. Similar goals...different ways of achieving those goals depending on the culture. Because of course you would.

in other news from Ohio;

It turns out this was all just a big ruse anyway.

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200420/coronavirus-is-plot-to-threa...-testifies

And on one has really died of covid-19, apparently.

I think I waited in line at Knoebels with that guy once

Industry adjunct: Expo 2020 (the World Fair) that was going to open in the UAE in October just got pushed back a year to 2021. That's a pretty big one, on scale of the Olympics.

Kstr 737 said:

I got that impression from the sideways smile.

And every point you've made it the last 40 pages.

Do I want the world to burn, no. Do I think we are way off the deep end with our response, yes.

Do I think people are dying, yes, does that affect us, absolutely.

Now with that being said, this is my personal stance on all of this.

I believe that this disease will kill people, I believe that the death rate is rather low for most people. Of the mortality rate for the disease most of it is reserved for the high risk population. Therefore if you are a healthy adult who is not at risk due to age, prior disease, etc, then you should probably be living your life as you would have always done.

I believe that if you are high risk then you should have the option to step away from work and choose to isolate, as someone said before how can you effectively isolate if you need food or service or whatever. I have put some thought into that, I can't answer everything, and my ideas are just that, ideas, no different than anyone else who would be tasking with thinking of solutions.

I feel like it would be doable to have those high risk populations stay at home, for as long as needed. If they can't work from home, set up unemployment for that group. If they needed groceries, have a set time in the morning where they have unfettered access to the store outside of everyone else. That is already being done for seniors or first responders in some areas. If they need something in their home fixed, get someone out to handle it, I see a business opportunity here for contractors, repairman, etc to advertise themselves as virus free, they could choose to get tested. They could choose to display proof, this could be a competitive advantage for them. Even better show recovery and immunity. However you want to work that one out.

Let the rest of the world function as it would normally, recommend that people remain hygienic and try to limit physical contact etc. If someone chooses to refrain from public activity then that is their option, but don't shutter the entire country over it.

With that being said, I do not watch television news, I do not get involved in the drama, I have an very internalized locus of control, I do not concern myself with items I cannot change. I believe that the vast majority of this country watches (sorry Jeff) extremely sensationalized news which predicts doom and gloom for all of us. If the mass public watched the news and saw fluffy bunnies and kittens and a message of "this is what happening in the world today but most of it is good except for a couple hiccups" then they would move on to something else. This would result is mass loss of revenue for those networks. If I am living in a state of worry about what is going to happen next, then I will be tempted to continue to consume that content and look for new developments, and new changes. The news feeds on the anomalies, and the 1% occurrences.

The biggest example of this is hurricane season. For me I have lived through hurricanes, quite a few of them. Sure they are destructive, but for the most part little damage occurs to most homes, of course, there are the areas that get slammed and have the warzone look, and that's the only thing you see on the news. I cannot count the number of times guests have asked me what's hurricane season like, it looks so horrible. When I explain it to them and tell them for the vast majority it isn't that bad they are surprised. I feel like everything on the news fits this formula, someone somewhere is having a bad day, but if I can convince everyone that this bad day is the norm and not the exception then I can sell them products, I can keep them coming back for more, I can hook them.

Another issue at play is that we live in a microwave society, everyone wants a quick solution with little effort. The medical industry is a pro at this. Depressed? Take this pill. Fat? Take this pill. If you are depressed, instead of taking the pill, why not treat the problem instead of the symptom? Are you depressed because you can't afford to live on $10 per hour, are you depressed because you sold out your soul to make a few extra bucks? Maybe we should work on those root causes instead, but that's too much work. What about the obese? Maybe they should work on diet, exercise, and getting themselves in shape rather then having a doctor suck it all out of them. (Yes, I know not everyone is fat because they eat and are lazy, but a good portion are). This would do wonders for the whole heart disease issue which is the leading cause of death. People want a quick fix instead of looking inward saying I have a problem and I need to work on it. I remember seeing an ad for a pill for "shift work disorder", that one blew my mind.

I personally do not know of anyone at home, at work, or out of any of my contacts who have died from this disease, I don't even know anyone who has been visibly sick, there have been a couple with a slight cough that have since fully recovered. I understand that we have a member of this site who is not doing well and was admitted for medical care likely due to this virus. I hope all goes well for him and that he recovers.

I personally do not worry or stress over when my death will occur. I am not walking out in front of a car to find out if I will live to the next day, but I am also not worried about death when I jump out of an airplane, ride a rollercoaster, bungee jump, drive down the highway, etc. I am surely not going to hide in the corner away from society because I might get sick. I certainly do not want to look back on my deathbed and think "gee I missed out because I was too scared of getting hurt, now I am dying anyways". I firmly believe that we all owe our lives at some point and we do not have control over when that point will arrive (unless we jump off a cliff, or something like that), and thus I will live to the fullest during my short time here.

I also believe that by nuking our economy we are putting a lot of people in positions which are causing them to take drastic measures, and for me I think the greater good would have been to isolate the high risk populations instead of everyone.

I think many people got caught up in speculation and a media frenzy, coupled with experts who said there is no vaccine for 18 months, and they all jumped to the conclusion that the world was going to suffer population loss that would have rendered society unable to continue, for some reason that led to everyone buying toilet paper because apparently catching the virus meant we were going to spend our lives on the throne. We then shut society because modern medicine couldn't save us. Modern medicine can't save us from cancer or heart disease either apparently according to the numbers, but we don't seem to worry to the point of changing our lives. I still see plenty of obese people at the McDonalds, and plenty of smokers. I also see plenty of people performing actions which are extremely high risk, much more than dying from this disease. I would bet that a good portion of these same people are now stressed and worried about dying from this disease, and are hunkered down in fear like so many of us. How does that make any sense?

Many people think I come off as extremely radical with my views, those same people know I care about them very much. I don't have much of a filter, I do tend to say what I think, and I feel like the majority of the population think one thing but then say another just to fit in with society, or because they don't want people to think differently of them. I think everyone has their opinion, I don't think of them differently because of it, there is always a driver and a cause and effect behind those opinions. I love to weed those out to learn how people think and behave the way they do. I am not looking to make friends by emulating others, I am not worried whether or not you like me, for many they will read this and go he is crazy, but there just might be that one person who I can break away from their mold and make them stop and think about something from a new perspective, whether or not that changes their views is irrelevant to me, I just want them to think for themselves for a moment and form their own thoughts and opinions.

I believe that in many areas this is already happening. People are beginning to question things on their own, granted some are going off the deep end with it, flat earthers come to mind here. I hope that out of this virus comes a country which questions their government, which fights for change, and which realizes that the system is broken and that it actually needs attention. Or we can go the other direction, we can go back to normal, with the addition of even more rules, regulation, and red tape, to fix the problem that occurred, when the real problem that occurred was that we as a country were too broken to handle it properly.

The virus isn't the problem, the virus is the catalyst which exposed the real problems.

Lots of assumptions and generalizations there, too many to unpack, but a fair position. Just a couple of quick hits:
-Cancer and obesity are not contagious. There is a zero percent chance that we will lose 2M people to cancer or obesity this year. That is not true of corona virus.

-I know of two people (grandfather of a former co-worker in Texas, grandfather of college friend in NY) who have died from Covid-19. I have a cousin in upstate NY who is recovering.

-The difference between news and sensationalism is facts. Fact are borne from data and analysis, not opinion, personality, or perspective.

-I don't think the reason you can't figure out the solution to isolating high risk people is because you haven't thought of it yet. I think it's because it doesn't exist.

-If there were some certification program to certify "not communicable" (which already has some fundamental problems), who would run it? The very government that is already "overstepping" and "invading."

And I think therein lies the rub. I think the vast majority of Americans would say the government is broken (what's congress' approval rating, like 30%?) but we don't even agree how it's broken. What's bureaucracy to one is a safeguard against exploitation to another. The rules that my neighbor wants to throw out are the ones protecting me and the rules I want to throw out are the ones protecting him.