Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Glad I wasn't the only one.

I know y'all love the infoporn, so here are some sliders that show when we're "over it" based on different variables:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html

The TL;DR is that if you could get vaccine distribution to 5m shots a day, we'd be good to go in April. Get it to even 3m and we're mostly good in May. Other scenarios that get us there as fast are rampant spread of more contagious variants that kill tens of thousands more people.

It's interesting info because it really does seem that regardless of path taken, we're getting there in terms of running this down.

I appreciate that they're not just using vaccination numbers, but also immunity from infection (including estimated undiagnosed numbers - yay!) which puts current immunity at 40%. I still think that was the missing piece in so much of the math and why I (in my non-expert opinion) think we're going to be surprised at how quickly this just burns out...hard and fast. All the sliders left at worst case (meaning longest timeline) put total immunity reaching herd levels by mid-summer. (and vaccinated immunity getting there by November)

I'm totally cool (as I've said) with giving a little buffer where we stay paranoid with masks and precautions, but after that, let's open this bitch up. There's no reason late fall/the holidays can't be business as usual at this pace.

In hindsight, in a weird way, the holiday surge, while sucky in terms of deaths, I think sped up the timeline quite a bit in the sheer number of infections (both known and unknown) that occurred - and it's exactly why I think we're underestimating how numbers will continue to drop hard. Vaccinations are hitting it from the other side. It's gonna be quick.

I think my potential future frustration will come from a likely abundance of caution when I'm going to be feeling like we should be past it. (so be ready for those posts 😃)

It’s a good question that I’ve been batting around in my head since you originally brought it up (a month ago?). I’m inclined to agree and if I understand the question correctly, I would frame it as “when is community transmission no longer something we adjust around?” Obviously the ideal answer is when we hit herd immunity (I assume that’s not a discrete point, but let’s pretend it is for the sake of conversation) so we actually, literally don’t care about community transmission, but is it actually some time before that?

TL:DR - At some point in calendar year 2021 the “all clear” will be given on dry humping and handrail licking.

Imma hump some handrails also just to make the queue more fun.

My concern right now is that people are looking at the improving conditions and will go ape**** out of frustration, when we're still in a worse place than in the summer peak. Our track record of moving toward normalcy too quickly isn't so great.

As it would inevitably lead to more deaths it's not the ideal outcome with regards to humanity, but the NYT estimator seems to imply that the more ape**** people go, the faster we reach herd immunity and, eventually, the finish line.

I feel like people (at least in my corner of the universe) are simply in a new rhythm. The outbursts over masks and restrictions have long since burnt out, it's extremely rare to see anyone anywhere without a mask, and slowly and steadily more and more people have been vaccinated.

The point, and this is the optimist in me typing, is that I think the visible ape**** behavior has passed, and that the majority get that 1) there actually is light at the end of this tunnel, and 2), we've made it this long, so 2 more months is literally a drop in the bucket.

I wish I could say the same for my area. People still just don't give a ****. #floridaman

Just so we're all clear and on the same page (because, Coasterbuzz), I'm assuming nobody here is actually advocating for going ape****, monkey****, or any kind of primate**** to get to the finish line faster because the cost of such behavior is the death of the people we've worked hard to save.

Are we ever really all on the same page? I can't speak for everyone, but I'm also assuming no one is advocating for the gorilla**** option.

My only assumption is that, much like from day one, what we will see is a lot of variation from state to state.

#Florida man, Florida man
Doing the things Florida can
What's he like? It's not important
Florida man

Is he for real? What is his deal?
Does anybody know how he feels?
What's the matter with Florida man?
Nobody knows, Florida man.
<Accordion solo>

Hit in the head with a frying pan.

I'm on page 175. I assume y'all are on the same page too. No?

Jeff said:
My concern right now is that people are looking at the improving conditions and will go ape**** out of frustration, when we're still in a worse place than in the summer peak. Our track record of moving toward normalcy too quickly isn't so great.

As one who has been posting somewhat optimistic scenarios based on my ongoing surveillance and risk analysis of the Ohio data, I really think this can't be emphasized enough.

At the peak of the epidemic (in Ohio our daily new case count and hospitalization count peaked on November 30; 7-day case average peaked December 4; and the active case count peaked on December 11) I calculate your odds of meeting a contagious Ohioan at about 1:48; today those odds have improved to 1:206. That's pretty remarkable improvement in just a month or two. Even better, the decline in new cases has been almost linear. I'm sure it won't stay that way; at some point the curve is going to go asymptotic (and yes, that's the right word here). But if that reduction were to stay linear, we would see a new case zero crossing at about March 10. Hey, that's even more remarkable! Even better is that apparently there is some evidence that the UK strain isn't actually more infectious than the present strains (i.e. less virus needed to cause infection), but that it may clear from an infected patient more slowly, meaning the patient stays infectious longer. If true, that should mean that existing mitigations should still be effective, and so far it looks like vaccines are still effective against this strain. All good news.

But the fact remains that as of today, Ohio is at roughly the same level of new cases and the same active case count that we had in the middle of October. This is just after the winter surge got started, meaning exposure odds, while low, are still higher than they were in mid-summer. Remember also that in August, case rates were on a decline at such a rate that we were looking at a zero crossing in mid-November...and we all know what happened instead.

This is a time when vigilance is called for, perhaps moreso than at any other time during the epidemic. It feels like things are getting a lot better, and in fact, they very much are. But even if we have pushed immunity to something close to 40% (that would be the estimated 28.86% who might have been infected, plus 12.17% who have received at least one shot of a vaccine, and assuming there is little overlap between the infected and the vaccinated) that means 60% of the population is still vulnerable.

I really do think this thing is going to burn out surprisingly quickly, and I think the vaccine push is going to significantly accelerate that burnout. But we're not there yet!

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

If anything, Dave, we have weather and timing in Ohio on our side. The winter surge was largely caused by 1) colleges and schools, and 2) holidays. Schools and colleges have their respective regulations deeply in place, and there is nothing major on the radar holiday-wise (compared to Thanksgiving and Christmas).

I suppose Ohioans could go bananas, but when and where (and how)?

Now if it was, say, May 21st instead of February 21st right now, I would be more concerned; people wanna go-and-do-and-play-and-drink-and-party....but right now it's going to be cold, windy, muddy, and gross until late April, and the only restriction lifted so far is the curfew; the impact of which was questionable to begin with. Dewine has been preaching this importance of vigilance as well, so I don't forsee him budging.

Call me a cockeyed-optimist, but I think Ohioans have by and large been pummeled into submission.

RideMan said:

But even if we have pushed immunity to something close to 40% (that would be the estimated 28.86% who might have been infected, plus 12.17% who have received at least one shot of a vaccine...

Not sure how it changes things but that's not how the NYT is counting. They're using "full" vaccination numbers. So their 40% (actually looks to be about 41%) is the ~5% who have received two doses and another 36% infected.

But given recent info saying one dose seems to be nearly as efffective as two, could we add the other ~7% and put the total immunity at closer to 48%? (at least consider it to the side, because it matters)

Not suggesting dropping anything, just still willing to consider things beyond the terrifying worst case scenario that's so popular in the discussion.

Pure speculation follows:

If we get these vaccinations rolled out quickly to the oldest and most compromised, the death numbers are going to plummet. Hard. I've always believed (without anything but my own observation, belief and gut feelings) that we're undercounting asymptomatic cases by a decent amount - especially in the youngest segments of the population. (let's say 24 and under - where nationally there's still been less than 800 deaths but generally higher infection rates)

All it takes are those two things to be true and this fizzles. Dave's linear line says March 10th. The NYT chart says early July. I'm guessing the reality is somewhere between those dates. I'm also guessing we'll still be living with distancing and masks well into fall.

And yes, some of this acceleration occured at the expense of lives during the last huge-assed surge. I wouldn't suggest going bat**** as a planned approach to speeding things up moving forward necessarily, but in hindsight, we did and it did.

Barely related:

In Ohio, the disparity between mortality rates among age groups is still insane.

0-60: 1159 deaths from 721,946 recorded cases = 0.16% mortality rate
60+: 15,590 deaths from 230,342 recorded cases = 6.77% mortality rate

People 60 and older in Ohio are 42 times more likely to die from COVID than those under 60. So it should be interesting once we've vaccinated the over 60 crowd in any significant number.

I remain less concerned and more optimistic than the room.

Also not really related:

Our school district vaccinated staff late last week. About 1100 were eligible and around 900 signed up. 82% gets us there. And let me just confirm what these guys are saying - In Ohio, it's never seemed to be as bat**** carzy as you guys describe Florida to be. I wonder which is closer to the larger norm?

I'm sure the gap is even wider (giggity) because asymptomatic cases are more likely in the under 60 crowd.

I'm estimating uncounted cases (not necessarily asymptomatic, but not counted by the State health department) as a 70% undercount...that is, 7 undercounted cases for every 3 declared cases. I'll be the first to admit that's a WAG, but in the prevalence study that Ohio State did in July, their estimated numbers were very close to (actually slightly higher than) mine, so I have stuck with that ratio. Also, NYT is using national data while I am using Ohio data, and by all accounts Ohio seems to have fared slightly better than the nation as a whole.

I'm considering vaccination starts because it appears that the first shot conveys significant immunity. In all of these things we're not talking about digital systems. You get some immunity from community exposure, you get a lot of immunity from infection and illness, you get a lot of immunity from your first shot, you get more from your second, and it peaks two weeks later. Likewise, the NYT herd immunity estimate is at 80%, when we don't really know where that line will be (and won't know until we get there). But every potential infectee that is removed from society reduces the ability of the virus to spread. We may be months away from 'herd immunity' but the level of immunity in the community right now (and while we have different reasoning, we both seem to put that number at about 40%) is already reducing viral transmission. It just hasn't stopped it yet. Even better, concentrating immunization efforts on the elderly and in the schools is probably a smart move, as that targets both the most vulnerable to serious illness and death, and the communities most likely to cause viral spread. The virus cannot be spread in places where it is not present, so targeting vaccinations in this way may get us not to herd immunity, but to minimal transmission just a little bit sooner.

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

What I don't get is the indoor dining opening up, and people so willing to do it. We know it's one of the more serious vectors, compared to general retail, most anything outdoors and even a lot of office environments. Remember, we jumped the gun on that in the summer, and it didn't go well. Some states are going it again, and we're still in a worse position than last time.

Until we all know people in their 30's and 40's who are not in healthcare or front line work that have been vaccinated, the exposure risk is still high enough to not be vigilant, the way most people are today (pockets of Florida aside, obviously).