Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

Just checked the Ohio dashboard for the first time in forever.

The mortality rate in Ohio for those under 60 is .1%

The mortality rate for those over 60 is 4.6%

You're 46 times more likely to die in Ohio once infected if you're over the age of 60.

That alone is fascinating (and still a key point, but whatever), but with us starting phase 1B (65+ and severe health issues), if we could just get the vaccine to people (and get them to take it) you could see death counts drastically drop pretty quickly.

I do wonder what impact the distribution of the vaccine will have on behavior, though. Like, if someone knew that "a lot" of >65 year olds had been vaccinated, would they start being more careless, leading to higher transmissions, which in turn negated or even overcame the effect of all the vaccinations? I know that part of me wants to say, "The second I get the vaccine, I'm going to Disney World for a month!"

Although the rollout in Florida has been a logistical disaster, and I'm no fan of our Governor, I have to admit that Gonch's data defends our Governor's decision. He did decide to put a 1st priority for the vaccine on those 65 and older. This has left law enforcement, fire rescue, teachers and others who must also get immediate assistance left out...and upset. But, that difference in mortality rate is pretty stark.

Received an email today from the Cleveland Clinic with info about vaccines. Notes differences between Ohio and Florida:

· In Ohio, we’re continuing to vaccinate caregivers. We’re also preparing to start vaccinating eligible patients in the coming weeks as supply and state guidance allow. We’ll share more specifics as these plans evolve.

· In Florida, patients who meet the specific criteria set forth by an executive order from the governor are eligible to receive a vaccine. We’re scheduling vaccine appointments for these patients as supply allows. Please check the dedicated page on our website to learn who’s eligible, whether vaccines are currently available and how to schedule an appointment.

Yes, I was on an emergency management call today. One city asked how they could move their first responders up on the list and the Department of Health indicated that it was not possible per the Governor's Executive Orders. Again, based on Gonch's data the Governor may be right. But this has to be confusing and unsettling for the average person...that each state is handling this differently.

My mother got her first dose. My in-laws, in another state and likely at higher risk, don't have a date yet.

Well, that has been the question from the very beginning. IIRC, the data suggested that doing the health care workers and first responders would actually save more lives in the long term because (a) less of them would be out sick or on quarantine (b) they would expose less people in their ongoing work. However, in the short term it does seem very counter intuitive to vaccinate people who are at a significantly lower risk. It's the transmissions that always get you, though.

I have a friend who works in the OR, not anywhere near covid patients. She's fully vaccinated already.

There are lots of interesting studies out there.

Analysis of COVID-19 hospitalization data from 13 sites indicated that 6% of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 were HCP. Among HCP hospitalized with COVID-19, 36% were in nursing-related occupations, and 73% had obesity. Approximately 28% of these patients were admitted to an intensive care unit, 16% required invasive mechanical ventilation, and 4% died.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6943e3.htm

Vaccinate the vulnerable.

The findings of the present study indicate that the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection among health care workers is lower than what has been reported for the general public in the surrounding region. Given that health care workers in hospitals are exposed to a much higher density of the virus, this is strong evidence that current PPE practices are protective, easing health care workers’ concern and psychological distress.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769442

Beef up healthcare workers PPE and vaccinate the vulnerable.

Also, see the risk of hospitalization and death compared to 18-29 year olds.

The "who" wouldn't even matter that much if the volume was higher. I've seen various opinions that suggest we're not getting anywhere significant until it's 3 million+ shots a day. I wonder when we'll get there.

Looks like the Johnson & Johnson results of their phase 3 may come next month, and it only requires one dose. That would make a huge difference in availability if it's approved quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/covid-vaccine-johnson-johnson-one-s...ponse.html

Another advantage of Johnson vaccine from what I understand is it can be stored in refrigerators which simplifies distribution and administration compared to the frozen/super-frozen vaccines.

I have seen health experts talking about 3 million vaccines/day. Is it realistic at all to think we can get there or is it a matter of understanding you likely underperform and aiming for 3 million makes it more likely we hit 2 million or 1.5 million per day? Do we have (or will we have and if so, when) 90+ million doses/month? At the 3 million pace, how long until we run out of willing arms? What is the cost of administering 3 million doses/per? No doubt pandemic brings with it tremendous costs. But you can end it vaccinating 1 million/day. Or 2 million 3 million. 5 million. 10 million. Difference (assuming you have available doses and willing arms) is time to end the pandemic. There is a cost/benefit analysis involved. Lower rate means you can rely more on the existing infrastructure/processes. Higher rates mean you need to build out more capacity. Over the course of this discussion, we have seen different people fall on different sections of the sliding scale. Don't expect that would be different here.

I have no actual idea about this, but my gut (not peer reviewed) tells me the benefit of the vaccination rate is greater than a linear proportion. (i.e. It's more than twice as good to vaccinate twice as fast). For one, I know that once a quarter of people are vaccinated, it will be very difficult to maintain social distancing protocols, stay at home mandates, etc. It will probably be hard to maintain enthusiasm for the vaccine as well. I suspect that if we have to drag out vaccine distribution for more than half a year, we'll never hit herd immunity.

At the bottom end of the herd immunity range, you would have to vaccinate about 200 million people in the US. I don't know if there are that many willing people at this point (or will be in the next 6 months as I would expect over time, you will see more people become willing) to get there. And at the upper range its another 50+ million people who need to be willing. If its a 6 month or bust situation, seems very likely we never get there.

Will we have the necessary doses available in 6 months to hit those needed numbers? Even assuming there are sufficient willing arms. I don't know what production/delivery numbers are expected to be going forward.

Not sure the enthusiasm for vaccines will wane like it has for distancing/stay at home/etc. The latter is every day. No end. Former is the end.

I think the window is larger than 6 months. If its not, I don't think we get there. Will be a struggle to get there with current willingness rates by the end of this year or even first half of 2022. But ultimately, we shall see.

I had a doctor's appointment today. (In unrelated news, I'm not dying)

But I did ask if my health issues could squeeze me into the 1B phase here in Ohio starting on the 25th. He said, probably not...and while a case could be made for it, it wasn't worth the effort because as far as he knew the current plan is to move to phase 2 on February 15th and that's going to include a lot more of the population.

Sort of burying the lede with my own story there, the big piece to me was that Ohio apparently plans (as far as this doctor understood it) to move to the next phase on February 15th. I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere.

Now, the last week of phase 1B is February 8th, so perhaps he was just making the assumption that the following week we take the next step. I don't know.

But if it really moves that quickly, it just goes back to the supply issue to me. Will there be a bottleneck of demand compared to supply or is Ohio moving like this because demand is low, so prioritizing based on need becomes less important?

And what happens once it is readily available to whoever wants it? At what point do we go, "Alright, you're on your own."

Because, and I'm sure this is likely to be an unpopular opinion, once the vaccine has been available to everyone with no supply issues and 30 days have passed (enough time to get both doses), if you aren't vaccinated by then - that's on you.

When do we take the masks off and start standing next to each other again? If we can't reach herd immunity through vaccinations and people are refusing the vaccine, then I guess we reach herd immuntiy the hard way.

I'm curious as to what everyone's risk tolerance is at that point. For me, once we reach the point I've described above (available to all for 30 days), I'm willing to give another 90 or 120 day of masks and distancing and stuff, but then...come on, let's get **** back. I would like to believe we're there by the end of 2021.

Lord Gonchar said:
When do we take the masks off and start standing next to each other again? If we can't reach herd immunity through vaccinations and people are refusing the vaccine, then I guess we reach herd immuntiy the hard way.

If we don't eradicate it completely at a certain point it WILL actually be like the flu. Enough people will be vaccinated that hospitals won't be at risk of overflowing. I am confident that I will be dry humping strangers at HHN next year.

And now Disneyland has cancelled their Annual Pass programs.

grab your popcorn, as the Disney foamers lose their minds

Guess I'm not going to HHN.

Gonch, I sure hope you are right with your end of 2021 prediction. In fact, I really am hoping that people can be moving around pretty freely by the end of the summer. Maybe masks will still be important but I need my kids back in school...yet I want their teachers to feel, and be safe.

And that Disneyland news isn't too shocking to me. Once they do reopen, the pent up demand is going to bury them. It probably would be in their interest to restrict annual passes for at least a year after they do finally reopen.

eightdotthree said:

If we don't eradicate it completely at a certain point it WILL actually be like the flu. Enough people will be vaccinated that hospitals won't be at risk of overflowing. I am confident that I will be dry humping strangers at HHN next year.

The Future of the Coronavirus? An Annoying Childhood Infection.

"Once immunity is widespread in adults, the virus rampaging across the world will come to resemble the common cold, scientists predict."

wahoo skipper said:
Gonch, I sure hope you are right with your end of 2021 prediction

That's just a longball predicition of when the conditions would be met to satisfy my acceptable risk level of getting back to normal. Like I said, I'll give 120 days after the vaccine is readily available to all (30 days to vaccinate and a 90 day "safe buffer"). That would mean vaccines have to be readily available by September 2nd.

After that, let's get this thing moving again.

DeWine today announced that 361,603 people in the state have been vaccinated. 40,097 increase in the number reported Tuesday. Estimate is 3.2 million people in Phase 1A and 1B. Unless they are expecting a huge increase in the vaccination rates (and to date they have beeing vaccinating the low hanging fruit in terms of logistics -- people working in hospitals and working and living in nursing homes) or incredibly low percentages of the rest of Phase 1 to refuse the vaccine, I am not sure how they move to Phase 2 in a month. But maybe they will.

He also confirmed today that Ohio will receive 100,000 vaccines next week when they start the 80+ group. He said earlier there are about 400,000 people in that age group. Even if the second doses are released next week and Ohio receives 200,000, they will end the week with a significant deficit of available vaccines. That deficit will carry over the to following week when the 75+ age group is eligible. So you may well be vaccinating the 80+ group at the same time you are vaccinating the 75+ group. Without an increase in supply, your weekly dosage deficit increases.

But maybe they are expecting deliveries to increase in the coming weeks.

West Virginia is doing well in terms of vaccination rates per capita.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

So part of the importance of herd immunity as a target is that some people can’t get a vaccine for a variety of reasons and the vaccine is still only 95% effective. Even if we were able to reduce the danger of Covid to flu-like levels, that’s still an additional 30-60,000 US deaths each year...forever.

I mean, that’s not worth shutting down the economy or closing every theme park, but if herd immunity can reduce the circulation so it’s comparable to measles (headline worthy when there’s a few cases), why wouldn’t we want to go for that? We require vaccines for all sorts of basic social services. Why wouldn’t we do the same of Covid and get as close to we can to eradication now for the sake of generation upon generation of potential future victims. Especially, if there’s a chance it mutates in a few years and renders all our current vaccinations useless.

TL;DR: Why are we so satisfied to just live with this thing in perpetuity? Given that we currently have a vaccine that works against all known strains, why aren't we going for herd immunity and eradication?

Fauci (who knows a lot more about this stuff than I do and pretty much anyone posting here) says he doubts erradication is possible.

“I doubt we are going to eradicate this. I think we need to plan that this is something we may need to maintain control over chronically. It may be something that becomes endemic, that we have to just be careful about,” he continued.

“Certainly, it is not going to be a pandemic for a lot longer because I believe the vaccines are going to turn that around.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/coronavirus-dr-fauci-says-he-doubts...cated.html