Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

To pile on, yeah, I don't need to be right. 2 will be greater than 1 no matter what I say.

ApolloAndy said:

Unless Trump is still trying to ride "blame Obama" sentiment (I have another word for it, but that's another story) after having been in office for four years.

That's exactly what is happening. He is lying about Biden's handling of H1N1 and blaming the Obama administration for not preparing for the next pandemic. As I mention in my other post, the left behind a freaking Pandemic Playbook.

I don't understand why we're even talking about Obama anyway.

Not a Trump fan. But Biden is essentially running for a third Obama term. He regularly talks about what he and Obama did while in office. Obama has been campaigning for Joe over the past week or so. There is talk of them campaigning together in the waning days of the campaign. Of course Obama is being talked about. How would it be otherwise?

Unless Trump is still trying to ride "blame Obama" sentiment (I have another word for it, but that's another story) after having been in office for four years.

Don't see the purpose of the H1N1 statement as that (and not talking about estremecoasterdad's purpose -- but similar statements have been made outside this thread). Its actually something we discussed here (multiple times) several months back. Given talking past each other has been the norm for months here, no real need/point to go there again.

Are you saying that we shouldn't trust empirical numbers and the most basic, surface analysis comparing them?

Depends. Do we have all of the relevant empirical numbers? Is there more beyond the surface? Relevant to the months long discussion here, if hospitalization and deaths are decreasing (empirical numbers), is the virus under control? Empirical numbers are down. No disputing that, right? We can "trust" those numbers using the language used here. But what if cases are increasing (likely, as we have seen, meaning hospitalizations and deaths are expected to increase in the weeks to come)? How about that fall/winter are approaching? Often things are not as simple as 2 is greater than 1.

And now suddenly that makes Jeff the "be-all and end-all" of who people should trust?

I never said that. Did someone else that I missed?

Unless you are saying there's room for interpretation in the statement "225k is bigger than 12k"?

Not challenging 225k is bigger than 12k.

2 will be greater than 1 no matter what I say

Also not being challenged.

I don't really understand what we're even arguing at this point. I am saying we don't need more data to make some kind of comparison between H1N1 and Covid-19 and that someone who claims they are comparable should not be taken seriously.

Tough to have a discussion when people are talking about different things. But thats been the overriding story of this thread for months. Can be exhausting.

Latest from Fauci:

I think it will be easily by the end of 2021, and perhaps even into the next year, before we start having some semblances of normality

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

I wonder what could be preventing us from returning to normal sooner.

That's why people are judgey, because people exercise poor judgment. Like, I get it, it's not convenient when you can't do certain things safely, or your kid's school is closed because it has an outbreak. Complaining about it doesn't it make it less true or make it go away.

In case no one understands the photo above, the gentleman with the red beard tested positive during the game and was removed from the field only to come back after the Dodgers won.

Disneyland Paris is closing again.

In line with latest direction from the French authorities, Disneyland Paris will be closing end of day on October 29th. In anticipation of celebrating the Christmas holiday season we will be taking reservations from December 19 – January 3 and hope to be open based on prevailing conditions and government guidance at that time. Disneyland Paris will be closed from January 4 through February 12.

What is preventing us from a semblance of normality is the lack of a safe, effective and widely administered vaccine. Absent that, we are looking at mitigation efforts to control the spread of the virus and by definition that isn't normality. Pics of college kids partying, people dry humping at bars or wearing masks on their chins or baseball players who tested positive posing for pics with his teammates and the championship trophy notwithstanding.

In terms of a vaccine, we do not have one yet that has been established to be safe and effective. Several in trials but none there yet. Then there are logistics of distribution (particularly any that must be super-frozen or require 2 doses). And enough people need to get one. Which is what leads to the late 2021/early 2022 timeline Fauci referenced (and others have as well).

I think if we're talking about "mostly normal" (all kids in school, in all workplaces open) then it's probably at least 12 months. But there are places that have amusement parks, schools, bars, etc. open right now because they did the right things early on and continue to do the right things now. We could definitely have gotten to "kind of almost normal" if not for poor leadership and the insistence on dry humping early on. And we probably still could if we made a unified effort but it's way harder now than it was then. (Also, LOL at "unified.")

eightdotthree said:

Disneyland Paris is closing again.

The entire country is going into "le confinement" until December 1st.

I am not cancelling my cruise!

Gonch - your daughter was/is in France?

Yeah, she's living/working there. Her contract runs until May.

Hope she is doing OK. I worry about my kid at OSU down in Columbus. Your situation has got to be nerve wracking.

It is interesting that they are going to (hopefully) open for 2 weeks at Christmas but then close again right after. That seems odd to me. Are there not enough people going to the park to keep it open past Christmas?

"Mostly normal" and "kind of mostly normal" are in the eyes of the beholder. Talk with different people and you will get different answers as to what that looks like. Some think they are essentially there now. Others nowhere close. And there are a lot of workplaces not open and a large number that are open but at reduced capacity, with limitations, etc.

Macron said that the lockdown in France is at a minimum to December 1. I understand its up for renewal for 2 week periods thereafter. Need a certificate to be outside your house which are issued for narrow list of purposes. Germany has put a partial lockdown in place.

GoBucks89 said:

"Mostly normal" and "kind of mostly normal" are in the eyes of the beholder. Talk with different people and you will get different answers as to what that looks like. Some think they are essentially there now. Others nowhere close.

Fair enough. I wonder how much of that has to do with the actual local regulations and how much of it has to do with conformance (by self or others) to those regulations. I think Gonch said super early on, that I can decide that things are normal for me at any point by not wearing a mask, going wherever I want, and doing whatever I want (with the exception of closed amusement parks, concerts, and sporting events).

Macron said that the lockdown in France is at a minimum to December 1. I understand its up for renewal for 2 week periods thereafter. Need a certificate to be outside your house which are issued for narrow list of purposes. Germany has put a partial lockdown in place.

I find it incredible that they are even able to institute such measures without death threats and rioting. As mentioned above, I think unified, quick, and decisive action will dramatically help the "return to normal," but I can't even imagine what would happen if we tried that here in these politicized times.

GoBucks89 said:

"Mostly normal" and "kind of mostly normal" are in the eyes of the beholder. Talk with different people and you will get different answers as to what that looks like. Some think they are essentially there now. Others nowhere close

I speak Fauci. Pretty sure he means literally back to normal, no restrictions, no masks. I suspect once the vaccine starts to be distributed and we see new infections start to decrease we'll start to see some of the restrictions lifted. YMMV based on the sanity of the state or county you live in.

ApolloAndy said:

I find it incredible that they are even able to institute such measures without death threats and rioting.

France and Germany have had a number of anti-mask protests.

Shades said:

Hope she is doing OK. I worry about my kid at OSU down in Columbus. Your situation has got to be nerve wracking.

Thanks.

But here's where the difference in approach that comes up between all of us is in play. I have one kid in Paris and one in Miami.

While there's a sort of obvious concern we all have, I'd hardly call it nerve racking.

In the entirety of this thread, I've continued to say it feels like a lot of our day-to-day hasn't changed. I mean, you can't say life hasn't changed, it has. But our patterns within that change haven't.

My wife travels to her hotels or the office everyday and is at restaurants at least three days a week. My son is at the U with 17,000 other kids doing college stuff and living in a dorm. My daughter is back in Europe and she's teaching - which puts her in a school setting 3 days a week.

I don't want to say "we don't live in fear" because I think that has negative connotations and is associated with the anti-mask movement and that's not us at all, but in the end, it is what it is.

I honestly can't say I sit around and actively worry about it.

ApolloAndy said:

in these politicized times.

I want to pitch this as the title of a soap opera to CNN or Fox News. That's probably the next step for those networks anyway.