No, DeSantis isn't "winning" against Walt Disney World

sws:

Cancelled my trip to Florida because I didn’t feel safe. Decided to go to Chicago instead.

I know you are being facetious but, outside of Garfield Park and Austin, Chicago is a very safe city. Those particular communities have been plagued by generations of poverty. Chicago is the case study for the effects of redlining. The per capita murder rate is lower than other Midwest cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and St. Louis.

It's very easy to say that people who are cancelling trips to Florida are overreacting, but again, it's a lot easier to say that if you know that there's a 100% chance that anything that will/may happen in that arena will not happen to you.

I don't want to think about ugly political things on vacation, so if I have a choice between two places, and one of those places is in some way making me, or potentially making me, the subject of a culture war, I'm going to pick the place where that's not going to happen. Especially when, again, Orlando wouldn't be my top vacation choice even if it was still 2017.

And if people don't understand that, I'm not sure there's anything I can say to convince you to see my point of view. Certainly I'm not going to change my mind and rebook to Florida because a handful of people here assure me that I'm paranoid (telling people that they're imagining things/threats is always really, really convincing, after all, and has obviously successfully changed many minds on a variety of subjects over the years). But I really don't feel like I've said anything that deserves to be singled out as particularly egregious when I'm not the only person making this same argument.

“Chicago is the case study for the effects of redlining. The per capita murder rate is lower than other Midwest cities like Detroit, Milwaukee, and St. Louis.”

Ah, but that’s the whole point now isn’t it? It all comes down to perception. People don’t want to be confused with actual facts. Whether that be gang violence in Chicago, gay bashing in Florida, or ride safety at Carowinds. We are all easily manipulated.

BrettV:

Let's put the 'coaster' in Coasterbuzz.

We all spent last week Monday morning quarterbacking the Fury 325 crack. The general consensus around here was the riders were not in any actual danger, even in those last ride cycles when the crack was at its worst. We all agreed it would have been bad to ignore it and continue operation for days/weeks/months, but in that moment the risk to riders, while more of a risk than a "normal" cycle on Fury, was still extremely low. The ride, by its very nature, was overengineered with numerous failsafes to keep things safe in this situation.

Now let's pretend there was an ERT event that day and everyone knew about the crack. With an imaginary large group of coaster/engineering enthusiasts that understood all of the above, you would definitely find some that would have no problem riding on Fury with the crack. The risk went from .0001 to .0004 and those are still better odds than the drive down I-77 to get to the park.

You would have others that felt uneasy with it but perhaps would ride anyway. It may be their favorite ride, or they may never have another chance to get to Carowinds. But it woule be a concern and there would be some relief when the rides were over, even though the ride itself was as fun as always.

And then you would have folks, even diehard Fury fans and newbies that always wanted to ride the ride absolutely refusing to board the ride and potentially refusing to even enter the park, knowing that if something did happen they had the knowledge that the problem existed and they didn't agree with the decision to allow the ride to open.

Substitute cracks in steel for Ron DeSantis' politics and rides on Fury 325 on deciding whether or not to visit Florida where applicable.

Does that analogy make any sense to anyone? Or have I finally lost it?

BrettV, that’s an interesting comparison, but even though I don’t think the two situations are equivalent, I’m going to go with it in case I’m wrong on that.

To accurately reflect the situation in Florida, you’d have to have another group of people in your analogy. This group would be the people who actually work on the ride day in and day out and are aware of the structural capability of the ride to continue operating or not with the failed support post. If those people are telling you, hey, we’ve looked at the structure and it’s easily capable of running without this support post, then I think it would warrant serious consideration as to whether or not the problem is as bad as it seems on the surface.
However, and forgive me for coming back to this, I don’t think the two situations are equivalent for a few reasons. First off, I don’t think that B&M themselves, even if fully aware of the ride’s ability to continue operating safely, would sign off on continued operation because of how bad of a look it would be. Maybe they did. Who knows? I would just find it shockingly hard to believe that a company who plays it as safe as B&M does would ever be okay with a ride operating to the point of so significant a structural failure as that. I’m sure that even the most rigid of steel coasters get hairline cracks from time to time, but this one was a doozy and I just don’t see any park or manufacturer in their right mind saying, “Yeah, that’s fine.”

Secondly, I think that where the two differ is that in the engineering of Fury 325, there is a quantifiable failure point that exists. Maybe nobody, even B&M, can predict where exactly the point is at which the track will fail with the support out of commission, but that point does exist somewhere based on engineering and environmental factors. Assuming total inaction, the point WILL come where the track fails because gravity and the environment are capable of creating that failure independent of human intervention.

For the Florida issue, though, there is no calculable point where things WILL turn into the nightmare scenario. Such a point might not even exist even with total inaction. You can argue that such a point would be reached based on probability and statistics, sure, but it still isn’t a guarantee because, unlike Fury 325, Florida can only become unsafe for these people groups because of human intervention.

ThemeParkFan 1990:

Especially when, again, Orlando wouldn't be my top vacation choice even if it was still 2017.

Doesn’t this sort of undercut the point? If you weren’t going somewhere to begin with, not going doesn’t prove or protest anything. It may add to your reasons not to come here, but if you weren’t coming anyway, you aren’t really depriving anyone of anything because they weren’t going to get it in the first place.

It seems that the argument “nothing will happen” assumes that “something” is a physical altercation of some sort. “Something” could be an anti-LGBTQ demonstration, an unwelcoming comment or glance, or Ron DeSantis making some public statement.

In general, I think it’s a good policy to take people who say they don’t feel safe, welcome, or included at face value.

I don't feel safe on CoasterBuzz and I've been coming by almost daily for over 20 years.

Then again, I'm a lunatic.

Couldn't you look at is as supporting Disney, who's well-known for supporting their GLBTQ employees and guests? It's not only in their theme parks. Their movies get ridiculed by bigots all the time for being "woke." Disney World can't help that the state that they are in has elected an authoritarian who bends to the will of Christian extremists. The company supports you.

I am optimistic about the future of Desantis. I don't think he has much of a political future. Disney, on the other hand, will still be around when Desantis is long gone.

That's how I see it, but everyone here, on both sides of the argument, are making a lot of sense. No one is "wrong".

A little late to some of the more recent conversation but let's revisit DeSantis' support in Florida. I think we forget who he was up against in 2022. Charlie Crist was the Democratic nominee. Charlie was Governor of Florida from 2007-2011...when he was a Republican. He registered as an Independent in 2010 when he ran for, and lost, the Senate seat filled by Marco Rubio. He registered as a Democrat in 2012 and lost by 1% to Rick Scott in the 2014 Gubernatorial.

So, let's just say that it was hard for anybody to really enthusiastically endorse a Crist candidacy and I'm not surprised Democrats weren't all in on him.

The 2022 Gubernatorial campaign was largely a Covid response referendum. And, whether it was good public health policy or not, DeSantis received good marks from Floridians. He came out strongly for pro public health restrictions early on...and even endorsed the vaccine. He locked us down in March of 20 and lifted lockdowns in September of 20. He got vaccinated (though not on television) and recommended vaccination early on and was praised by Trump for his handling of Covid. It wasn't until September of 21 when he appointed the Florida Surgeon General who was strongly anti-vaccine and started to distance himself from, well, good public health policy.

His decision to reopen Florida while other states were closed paid huge dividends for state and local governments. Our dire projections of lost revenue in my own community were shattered . I feel a little dirty about being happy about that...but it certainly explains the support he got from Florida in general.

Now, I say all that while being mindful that, as of late, he has been absolutely awful in many other areas. What he is doing to our higher education system is unconscionable (and he is even meddling in local school boards). The targeting of basic human dignity is maddening. His attack against Disney is one of the most un-Republican/un-conservative things I've witnessed in my lifetime. I'm curious to know if he is losing some of the support of the moderates (much the way Trump did). It may be a strategy, but I'm not sure it gets him anywhere in the end.

That he and the legislature are doing nothing to figure out how to stabilize homeowners and car insurance here is his biggest sin. The economic impact of that is the most serious. And so much truth about Crist. Having been here a decade now, I can hardly be surprised that he certainly wasn't going to energize anyone.

I think sirloindude's bit about what's actually happening on the ground is spot on. It's unfortunate that the perceptions are otherwise. If you don't feel it's safe, or you feel that not coming here is an effective form or protest, I can respect your opinion, but I do not agree with it. I would argue that avoiding conflict instead of confronting it doesn't change anything. The Bad People win. History has shown that fascism will follow you until you confront it head on.

People ask, "Why do you stay living in Florida?" Well, I could move back to Seattle, where my vote and actions mean nothing in a liberal echo chamber. But if I stay, advocate for people and the place, as I'm doing right now, at least I've got a fighting chance of changing something, regardless of scope.

Like pretty much everyone in politics these days, the reality of DeSantis being forced to exist in Trump World is likely a different DeSantis than we would have had in a Republican party where Trump never existed. I like to think DeSantis' initial response to the pandemic in the spring of 2020 gave a slight glimpse into that alternate reality.

The reason I keep repeating that Orlando isn't my go-to anyway is that it seemed like people ignored that part of my post and tried to make it sound like my decision to not give Florida money was going to immediately, single-handedly send Johnny Service Worker to the poverty line. Went there pretty quickly. Hence the repetitions, since it seems like for a long time people weren't taking that part into account.

And I AM supporting Disney...by going to Disneyland, a park I have already been frequenting anyway for a decade.

As for 'letting the bad guys win'...it's not MY job to fix your state's broken politics. What is any tourist meaningfully going to be able to do if they flit in and out for a week or two and the vast majority of time is going to be spent at theme parks? I'd argue there's only so much tourists CAN do in that situation.

And I ask: if I don't show my displeasure at the legislation by not going to the state, how exactly am I supposed to show that I don't care for what's going on? Knowing what I know, couldn't choosing to spend money in the state be in some ways construed as an endorsement of what is happening?

Do tell: if not going to the state is NOT an acceptable way to express my lack of support, what is?

I don’t think anyone is obligated to come to Florida. I just think that if you’re someone who truly wants to come to Florida but won’t out of protest, it’s not going to do anything except contribute to a victory for extremism. If people tell you they don’t want you here and you decide to stay away, they got what they wanted and you didn’t.

In your case, though, you said that you weren’t interested in coming to Florida anyway. That’s totally a respectable opinion, but given that your desire to avoid Florida was based on a lot of other factors before we even bring up the government, I don’t think it counts as a protest. For it to truly be an act of protest, politics would have to be the deciding factor to either stay or go. If you’re protesting anything by not coming to Florida, based on your comments, it seems to me that it’s more the shortage of attraction to the tourist offerings of the state compared to other locations.

Said another way, your arguments against the politics all hold water except to characterize the politics as the driving reason for you not wanting to come here, and that’s because you admitted multiple times that coming here wasn’t a desire you really had in the first place. It’d be like if I said I wasn’t going to Taco Bell out of protest over their selection of Pepsi for their drink choices. I’d greatly prefer Coke, but they could switch to Coke tomorrow and I wouldn’t be going because my lack of interest stems from the fact that their food is terrible, thus nullifying my claim that drink selection was my reason for avoidance.

wahooskipper:

I'm curious to know if he is losing some of the support of the moderates (much the way Trump did).

I’m a registered Republican who considers myself a moderate, and yes, my past support for DeSantis has certainly been shaken by events of late. I think the attack on Disney is extremely petty, to say nothing of how disconcerting it is. You don’t deserve an office of high leadership if you’re going to get vindictive over people not agreeing with your policies. It scares me that so many people are actually okay with it. I want a leader of the state/country/whatever who is okay with not being liked by everyone and handles it graciously by still making an effort to best serve the full constituency. A simple, “I’m sorry you don’t agree with my policies, but I’m still glad for everything you do for the state,” would have been way more effective than this stupid revenge game.

Also, to Jeff’s point, there are actual problems here that could seriously use some government intervention. Home insurance costs are completely out of control, for example. That’s the sort of issue where the focus should be.

The complete nuking of the immigrant workforce has already been felt and we are only a month in, inflation was the highest in FL, and every other state saw a cooling.

The farming, construction, and shipping sector is predicted to lose 2-20 Billion in revenue.

There was also an article that every state university is only getting 5-10 applicants for positions when used to get 50+, and of those 5-10 most take low-paying jobs elsewhere.

Add to this the worst teacher shortage in elementary schools of any state.

Lets see, off the top of my head, I think in the last 3 years I've been to Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland...and I live in West Virginia.

I feel I've expressed my lack of support to the other 44 states, 194 countries, and 6 continents (and while we're at it, the other 7 planets of the solar system) quite effectively.

Vater:

…and while we’re at it, the other 7 planets of the solar system…

*must resist urge to make a Uranus joke*

Don't let Uranus stop you.

I don’t want to, but the cost of traveling to Uranus is astronomical.

ThemeParkFan1990:

...it's not MY job to fix your state's broken politics.

I'm not going to tell you what your job is, but I will point out that the big problems... poverty, racism, fascism, climate change, etc., know no borders. Sometimes things aren't your problem until they are.

Florida is sinking into the ocean so the problem will be solved very soon.

At least we'll be still be able to ride Magnum