No, DeSantis isn't "winning" against Walt Disney World

The profession that I deeply love is really diving into a box of stupid over Disney attendance. It started when the site Touring Plans, which is I believe a travel agency as its core business (thus the lack of click-bait-hate found on other "fan" sites), posted data about the holiday weekend. What they showed was that wait times were much lower than last year, and their "observable" crowd level saw a huge drop from Friday, 6/30 to Saturday, 7/1. Of course, Ron DeSantis said "it's because they're woke!" and added that the Indiana Jones movie is more proof of why they're "suffering." I'm not sure how a movie that makes over $300m is a "flop," or even that people associate the franchise with Disney, but whatever.

The press has been leaning into this for the last week, and not really giving any critical thought to it. The Touring Plans blog post hit a week ago, so the sudden enthusiasm is a little suspect. Right-leaning news leads with DeSantis, and the few who do go deeper look at things a bit more holistically. I think it was the Orlando Sentinel that also reported that Universal and SeaWorld saw softer crowds this year, and to me it all makes sense. Crowds last year at all parks were insane, but with fractional attendance at best in 2020, and a gradual ramp in 2021, of course there was going to be crazy demand in 2022. I don't believe that could be sustainable. A year ago, pundits and Disney themselves were predicting a return in international visitors this year, and anecdotally I can tell that's true. Those big Brazilian tour groups with the matching shirts and the leader with a flag seem like they're everywhere again.

And Disney's wider "market response" is hardly shocking, and easily explained. Their stock has been volatile the last year relative to the market at large, but it was generally a wash until the last quarter. They took a hit when they shed a bunch of Disney+ subscribers, 90% of which were from India and left because they lost rights to a cricket league. (Sidebar: That's super interesting since in the US they seem not enthusiastic about the sports business at all, given the high production costs for ESPN and ABC Sports.)

Touring Plans seems like a solid site, and while they don't totally explain their algorithm, they do tell you how they miss when their predictions aren't on. It appears they're doing some combination of API scraping and user-submitted data, so they can compensate for the parks' "crowd control" wait times intended to direct people elsewhere. But in that blog post, they also talk about "observable" crowd levels, and I couldn't figure out how they determine that. I was at Epcot on 6/30 and 7/1, and while both days seemed easier going than this time last year, I "observed" that the days were essentially the same. They rated Epcot a "5" and then a "1." I don't know what the latter is supposed to mean, but navigating out of the park was not any easier than any other day. The pool at the hotel was like a zoo. Disney Springs was ridiculous enough for being one-drink territory. (The line for the bakery place wrapped around Morimoto, what's that about?)

I'll say the same thing that I've said for 20+ years, even about Cedar Point. If you want to know what the crowds will be like, look at the hotel prices relative to each other. When they're lower, expect lower crowds. That's why I got a pretty good deal ($250/night) at Coronado. The weeks before and after were higher.

One "news" site scraped some data to make a graph showing a massive cliff drop in wait times at Disney, all at once. Assuming that was real (and I doubt it), that doesn't point to some sudden and unexpected change in attendance. It would, however, show a significant change in their standby/Lightning Lane algorithm. That I could see. We were granted some LL's because of our hotel problem, and I can tell you that the lane wasn't the lightningest thing. Whether or not there was a change, I've been expecting something because of Iger's off-hand remarks about cost. I'm not saying they're going to abandon paid queueing, but I'm not convinced it will go on as it has.

as always here’s the real reason numbers are down:

1. Currently most Americans think it’s too expensive to plan a trip down. Period.

Disney has made things a huge hassle for the average guest (park reservation requirements, G+, park hopping restrictions) and jacked up the rate. They’ve gone too far and need to reverse course on some of these policies/prices. It has nothing to do with politics only $.

as always here’s the real reason numbers are down:

1. Everyone learned their lessons about traveling to Orlando during the summer. Late fall, winter, and early spring, are now the seasons to go.

I don't think it's just Disney that is less busy than last year. From what I hear Universal has been slower too.

I think it has a lot to do with fear of recession. Even though Genie+ has been around for a year, I believe most regular Disney folks are programmed to plan out up to 6 months in advance. Back in January through March talk of recession was very widespread. People are not going to plan expensive vacations when they think they might be losing their job or significant savings.

Side note: Hasn't Disney been trying to curb attendance for years?

Also:

In the end i'm going to go with all of the above and all of what's coming below.

Touchdown:

1. Currently most Americans think it’s too expensive to plan a trip down. Period.

I'm not sure that's all of it. I wrote this elsewhere, but:

Orange County (where most of WDW sits) saw tourism development tax revenues (the county hotel tax) this May down 6.7% YoY. In contrast, US travel spending was up 1.4% nationwide YoY overall in that same month.

If "costs too much" were that big of an issue, it would not seem that overall travel spending would be up. Granted, it's up less than inflation, so there is some slowdown, but that should not disproportionately impact the TDT, because that's a percentage of room rate, which should have tracked inflation.

The argument that seems more plausible to me was that Disney (and Orlando generally) saw a better-than-average demand spike during the revenge travel period, so a return to earth was inevitable, which is Jeff's point. This seems to be exacerbated by a swing in US demand for international travel, and while the reverse flow is also happening, it doesn't seem to be happening quite as fast or making up for the change in domestic arrivals.

The "Woke War" also cuts both ways. Some folks may be avoiding Disney out of a "go woke go broke" stand, but some folks are also avoiding Florida because "oppressive governments are oppressive." The latter is probably more centered on convention business, but Disney does a bit of that, and Orlando does a lot. It's also anecdotal--at least so far. But, again anecdotally, we are reconsidering our February '24 plans and thinking about switching from Palm Beach FL to somewhere else.

I wonder how much of the average daily crowd was Annual Pass, Florida Resident Pass, etc. And, assuming it wasn't insignificant, I wonder how much of that has bounced back after they suspended those sales.

I'll also say this, living in South Florida. With the crazy temperatures right now I haven't thought once about daytripping up to a park for a visit...nor will I when it is this oppressive. And, I'm a pretty consistent visitor.

I'm also interested in knowing more about international travel. I'm told this is a great time for Americans to be traveling to Europe and points elsewhere. I was last in Orlando about 4 weeks ago. It is not scientific but I don't think I ran into any Europeans in my Universal Hotel or while eating at Citiwalk. Sometimes you can go there and feel like the only American.

All this to say, I think "wokeness" is pretty low on the issues of concern for Disney right now.

Brian Noble:

The "Woke War" also cuts both ways. Some folks may be avoiding Disney out of a "go woke go broke" stand, but some folks are also avoiding Florida because "oppressive governments are oppressive." The latter is probably more centered on convention business, but Disney does a bit of that, and Orlando does a lot. It's also anecdotal--at least so far. But, again anecdotally, we are reconsidering our February '24 plans and thinking about switching from Palm Beach FL to somewhere else.

That's a fair point. Anecdotally we chose our trip to the East Coast instead of the Black Hills for similar reasons, in part anyway.

South Florida tourism officials have cited 6 conferences so far that have decided not to book here because of political issues, losing out on millions of dollars.

Mulfinator:

Hasn't Disney been trying to curb attendance for years?

That's a good point. But the "high prices" also coincided with the aforementioned "revenge travel" year. Last year was not sustainable. The article Brian linked to also mentions that one month during the pandemic, the county tourist tax dropped by 97%. Context matters. Disney is trying to find its normal rhythm after a pandemic and two serious leadership changes, and despite that, the theme park business isn't that erratic. And look at the cruise line... if they could finish the Disney Treasure today and send it out, I'm sure they would. Rates for the Canaveral based Bahamas and Caribbean itineraries are getting a little ridiculous even for us and our almost-Pearl status family. It's not curbing demand.

wahoo skipper:
I'm told this is a great time for Americans to be traveling to Europe and points elsewhere.

Given that the US State Department is crazy behind on passports, I think there's a fair amount of evidence that this is what Americans are doing in record numbers. More anecdotes, but not only have a significant portion of my friends been there recently, but we're going next week. Disney is getting our money for that too, because we're cruising Northern Europe. That trip was supposed to be 2021, so as with everything, we still haven't settled into a post-pandemic "normal." The numbers on inflation seemed solid today, so maybe we're getting closer.

We've had some solid days at Disney in the last two months, and if FastPass was still a thing, I imagine it would feel a lot like 2017, and that's a welcome relief. Magic Kingdom is still terrible (I haven't been, but Diana and Simon went a few times this summer), but Epcot has at least returned to tolerable. Hollywood Studios varies, but July 2 wasn't bad. Can't tell you the last time I was at Animal Kingdom, which is kind of weird.

Regardless, Ron DaFascist is not winning. There are plenty of logical reasons for reduced tourism in Orlando, none of which have to do with him. It's pretty sick to try and celebrate reduced business in the state you represent.

I'm a regular on Touring Plans (they have a forum). Their crowd levels are entirely about length of lines and not about number of people on midways, restaurants, or shops. Probably because it's the easiest thing to quantify, the easiest data to scrape, and it's the thing most people ultimately care about).

Re: passports. They've fallen so far behind that State is starting to do pop-up fairs around the country to process new applications.

Relatedly, it took eleven months for Homeland Security to approve my Global Entry renewal. I applied a bit more than six months before it expired. Thankfully, they extended it while my renewal was pending. My passport expires in a bit less than a year, and I am trying to make sure I have a 3-4 month window where I won't want to leave the US to renew it ASAP.

wahoo skipper:

I'm also interested in knowing more about international travel. I'm told this is a great time for Americans to be traveling to Europe and points elsewhere.

EU and UK schools are still mostly in session in early July, they break up between mid and end of the month. It's a great time for international visitors here and in the EU, with the best of the weather and not much by way of crowds. We have shorter summer holidays here, with schools starting back up early september, and colleges later in the month.

Anecdotally, we once traveled over to FL from the UK for the last week of august and first two of september (pre covid) and the crowd levels were crazy low - it was evident that most international travelers are already at home planning for the return to school. This year we're coming over mid september to early october (as we normally do), and honestly, all the talk this year of softer crowds coupled with Disney's clear attempts to get more people through the gate both on and off property with offers etc suggests good news for us when we come.

Most schools here in the UK (not sure on EU) will fine parents for taking kids out of school during term time for holidays. Not an issue we have without children, and we generally try to make sure we don't travel during school holidays both local and at the destination to gun for the quietest time possible. I believe the young internet upstarts call us 'DINKs'

Florida schools go back August 10. They went to mid-May this year, but that's because of makeup days for hurricanes. Doesn't matter as much here since the locals don't have the same tourist impact they do elsewhere. It got me to thinking though, that if we're back to something more seasonal, October and November may again be a "better" time to visit Orlando.

I saw that about the passport "fairs," but I thought it was just to apply. They turned around mine in about two months late last year (August to October). Simon's took six weeks a year earlier.

I was under the impression that the fairs are only for new applications; renewals are unchanged. Could be wrong about that though.

Brian Noble:

Relatedly, it took eleven months for Homeland Security to approve my Global Entry renewal.

I literally just went through customs at CLT. I think I will be traveling internationally for work more often. I saw the sign for the Global Entry and am going to apply for it when I get home. 11 months is ridiculous.

Yeah, a one hour line returning through DTW sold me on it. New applications might be faster. I am trying to remember how long my son’s took, but I think he applied after I renewed and was approved before I was.

Great, can't wait to get back to Orlando in a few weeks after being in the air for nine hours.

My line was maybe 20 minutes. But I figure why stand I line if you don’t have to. And we get reimbursed for TSA pre-check through one of our credit cards so I am going to sign up for that as well.

Not that I am a real international traveler, but the Madrid airport seemed so much better/efficient than what I am used to here. I typical fly through CLT because I fly American and 4 of the 5 terminals are a frickin’ zoo. It took me a while to realize that the arriving passengers at Madrid are on a separate level/walkway than the departing passengers. That makes a huge difference.

MCO supports expedited return for the masses. Definitely worth doing.

https://upgradedpoints.com/...sport-app/

(Unfortunately DTW doesn’t use it.)