Disruptive Technology - PS3, the Wii, and Coasters

Good point Jeremy- I think a lot of the Zelda hype has to do with it being a Zelda game and nothing more. The Zelda series is one of the most important and respected in video gaming and any major Zelda release is huge news. I think this was a great move on Nintendo's part- they designed a new system that needs to get peoples' attention, and what better way to do that than launch it with a new Zelda game? If there's Zelda, people have to sit up and take notice!

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Lord Gonchar said:

Does the Wii approach essentially create a fork in the road and go a different way existing alternatively in the future (for casual gamers, 2nd system for regular gamers) or does it just die off and the next gen Nintendo system goes back to dual analog sticks and processing power and trying to compete head-to-head with other systems.

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I'm not sure I see that happening. With the development costs for a single game skyrocketing, game publishers are leaning more towards releasing their stuff for all systems rather than for a single system just for the sake of reaching the largest possible audience. I know that the next GTA game is going to be released for PS3 and 360, and who can blame the company for not being loyal to one system? Considering how much the game cost to make, why limit your market to only PS3 owners when you can expand it to include 360 owners as well?

For those questioning third party support for the Wii, I just read something about a new SSX game being developed to take advantage of the Wii's controller. EA claims the game is going to be exclusive to the Wii. But will it? Since the SSX series is a huge money-maker for EA, it's obvious there will be another round of SSX games for all systems in the near year or so. Perhaps the future of games will mean that the bulk of development will take place with all systems in mind, and then the final detail work will be what separates the different versions? Maybe the Wii's new SSX game will be completely different, but I'm betting it will be a moderately modified version of other SSX games making their debut in 2007.

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rollergator said:But as those of you *on the inside* have noted, it's not going to amount to alot of GAME revenue...prob. just have a couple games I enjoy, get bored, and go back to the TV and the PC...

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But you see, if Nintendo gets enough "a system and one or two games" people, plus their older hardcore audience, then they've done very well indeed. Unlike the XBox 360 and the PS/3, Nintendo makes money on every console sold, right from the start. The mindset in the console world has been similar to that of razor blades -- sell the console (handle) at a loss, but make up for it in software (blades).

With the Wii, Nintendo ISN'T taking a loss on the hardware. (It's thought that Microsoft has passed the breakeven point on the 360, as well, but that's after a year of production. Every PS/3 sold COSTS Sony an estimated $200 and up, and with the current horrible software sell-through rate, that's a very bad thing)

Jeremy, I do indeed remember the PowerGlove. Along with NES Robot (we even had one. Gimmicky, expensive, and ill-fated, but fun. Uh-oh...), various lightguns on various systems (my mom, of all people, LOVED Duck Hunt), CDROM expansions for cartridge-based systems, Nintendo's ill-fated Virtual Boy, the Vectrex, etc. Lots of experiments have failed in the market. The Wii could very well turn out to be one of those, but I'm hoping it's a big success. The dual screens and touchscreen on the DS were a big experiment as well, and that's turned into a runaway success, perhaps Nintendo will do it again with the Wii.
*** Edited 12/8/2006 3:09:12 PM UTC by GregLeg***

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GregLeg said: Every PS/3 sold COSTS Sony an estimated $200 and up, and with the current horrible software sell-through rate, that's a very bad thing).

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Suddenly I'm reminded of the fly-by-night used car dealers... "we lose money on every car we sell, but we make up for it in volume" (and, presumably, bad accounting)... ;)

*** Edited 12/8/2006 3:42:14 PM UTC by rollergator***

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GregLeg said:
Unlike the XBox 360 and the PS/3, Nintendo makes money on every console sold, right from the start. The mindset in the console world has been similar to that of razor blades -- sell the console (handle) at a loss, but make up for it in software (blades).

With the Wii, Nintendo ISN'T taking a loss on the hardware.

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And to put that into perspective here's a quote from an AP article dated yesterday:

"Sony is expecting to rack up $1.7 billion in red ink in its game unit for the fiscal year ending March 2007, much of it in PS3 startup costs. Nintendo is forecasting profit of $845 million for the fiscal year, as Wii buoys earnings in the second half."

Ouch!

I am willing to bet that the Wii console may be one of the first to either break even or even make money at launch. I've yet to see an estimate of the component costs, but if it's essentially a fancy Gamecube, and it sure sounds like it, then by now they're making money on it.

I own a Wii and an Xbox 360, and I have played the Playstation 3.

Let me tell you here: there is NO significant difference between the 360 and the PS3. Both are very standard systems with souped up graphics and sound. Their ambitions, in the long run, are exactly the same with the games.

Playstation 3 is shooting itself with the vastly overpriced, unproven medium in the Blu-Ray.

The Wii is the first console I've purchased in a long time that feels like a minor investment instead of a down payment. The controls work wonders, and for the first time in a long time, I feel like I got my moneys worth with Madden. Zelda is amazing, and Wii Sports is a blast.