Steaks being broken this year due to Covid

Well Disney just announced their holiday “offerings” this year. No MVMCP (expected,) no Candlelight (expected,) projection show on ToT (why,) no Castle Dreamlights (why?) and no chance of any nighttime spectaculars. Made my decision very easy, trip is canceled.

I appreciate Covid is a problem, I understand that parades and Castle Fireworks shows are a no go for now, but I continue to not understand why Epcot couldn’t have it’s fireworks show come back (that lagoon is huge, and if they did the show 1-2 hours before close, people would not leave en mass,) why Fantasmic couldn’t happen (with distancing) nor why they couldn’t do multiple projection and or stage shows (2-3 a night.)

However, then the park would have to be open later, and it costs money. I can’t believe how many suckers are continuing to give Disney their money at the same rates pre Covid but for a vastly inferior product. I have an AP and could get a really great rate for a hotel but it’s still too much money.

I need more things to come back before I’m willing to pay that price.

I actually totally understand why people are still paying the same rate and we're considering doing it, because the comparison to pre-pandemic isn't meaningful. It's not like I'll have the chance to go to full Disney at full price in the next 18-24 months and I should just wait it out. I can certainly understand not seeing the value in paying full price for half Disney, but is it really that much of a surprise that of the millions of people who used to attend, some substantial proportion of them would be willing to pay twice as much for the same offerings or the same price for half the offerings? If the choice is full price for half Disney or no price for no Disney, it's not super obvious that one choice is for suckers.

(Of course, I am overlooking the fact that if you really just care about rides or you really care about your lungs, there are other factors at play.)

The rides are all open, it’s the other stuff that isn’t.

Covid numbers would have to be low for me to consider going, but no hopping, no night shows, limited dining and very limited hours do not appeal to me. I regularly do 15-25 attractions in normal times at WDW (and more at DL, I understand others don’t but this is my preceptive) so having no lines isn’t much of an incentive and does not cancel all the negatives.

Am I being optimistic that things could be "normal" in nine months, and that's worth waiting for?

I don't disagree that the value isn't there for you. It's probably not there for us either. I don't think you can call people who do find value in it, "suckers" though.

I don’t know who would find value:

Families with young children miss out on meet and greets, older children will not want the day to stop at 7pm, and I mentioned why it’s not a value for “Disney Adults.” So other then locals, I really do think people who go now are “suckers.”

Jeff said:

Am I being optimistic that things could be "normal" in nine months, and that's worth waiting for?

I'm not sure what path would lead us there. If it's herd immunity, I think it will take longer than nine months since we're adding 40k cases per day and we would need to get up to +/-150 million. If we just give up and say "everything is open, let the chips fall where they may" I sure as hell am not going to Disney World. And if it's by way of vaccine, most Americans (3 out of 5) say they won't get the vaccine when it becomes available, with 1/3 unsure if they'll get it ever. And it's not even clear that it could be distributed and become effective in that amount of time. Is it possible that a vaccine will be available and that we'll have the opportunity to take it within 9 months? Absolutely. Would enough people take it to suppress the transmission of the virus enough to make a trip to WDW be "normal"? I don't see it.

Touchdown said:

I don’t know who would find value:

Families with young children miss out on meet and greets, older children will not want the day to stop at 7pm, and I mentioned why it’s not a value for “Disney Adults.” So other then locals, I really do think people who go now are “suckers.”

2/3 of my friends would call paying full price for full Disney for "suckers," let alone the amount I spend to ride obscure rollie coasters around the country. If you don't understand why people find value in it, that doesn't make them suckers. If you're comparing the current value proposition to the previous value proposition, the previous value proposition doesn't exist so it's not relevant.

I am of the opinion that the previous offerings will in fact return mostly, by this time next year.October 1, 2021 is an extremely marketable date for WDW and I do not see this pandemic lasting that long. I do expect a vaccine to be on the market by then, and I do expect Americans to trust in Darwin to take care of the anti vaxxers and return to life as normal once it’s been adaquatly distributed.

Well, here's hoping. But I'm not holding my breath (except in poorly ventilated indoor spaces).

If there can be equitable distribution of vaccines, I can see a point where some proof of it plays a role in the recovery. Schools already require it for a ton of other things.

I think we can distribute a vaccine very quickly. But first we need a safe and effective one. AstraZeneca put its vaccine trial on hold today.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-st...n-the-u-k/

And assuming we get a safe and effective vaccine, we need to get enough people to get it. Big open at this point.

Lots of opens here but still seems reasonable we could have something during 2021. Not a guarantee though. Even if we could really use one.

I'm not particularly alarmed about the AZ pause, because it's in response to one case that isn't likely attributed to the vaccine, but it's a trial, they have to investigate.

I don't think its alarming. But just evidence of the reality that we are still early in the process. There are a number of drugs that have showed much promise at Phase II trials which never made it to market and some that did make it to market that shouldn't have.

I didn't think we'd get to a point in this conversation where Jeff was the optimist and I wasn't. Do I think things will be more normal than right now in nine months? Yes. Do I think we'll all be maskless in a Flower and Garden Festival Starship featuring Mickey Thomas moshpit at the Flower and Garden Festival? I don't. I see the current theme park model, with the potential for some extended hours and offerings as attendance increases, going through most of 2021. I don't plan on being permitted to ride Steel Vengeance again without a mask until May 2022.

Maybe I'm totally off base here.

But I do find value in the current Disney experience. Few crowds and walk on condition for all the major e-ticket rides? For me that's far more important than shows, entertainment, parades, and fireworks. I'm one of those people that finds the parade nothing more than an inconvenience in my trek from Space to Splash Mountain, and the best view of the fireworks is on the monorail getting out of dodge before the masses. Unless of course it's the Not So Scary Halloween Parade or Illuminations. Then I'm there for it.

How many Disney rides can you power ride though? I don’t mean physically, I mean emotionally; dark rides are not meant to be ridden over and over again. Here’s my list of rides I would attempt to ride, more then 2 times in one day:

AK:

-Everest (I regularly will powerride this thug via SRL)

-Safari (animals do different things)

-Flight of Passage (although there is a limit not much beyond 3 times, screen rides get stale with frequent riding)

-Dinosaur

-Kali River Rapids

DHS:

-ToT (if they let me marathon this ride I would, I love this ride so much)

-Toy Story Mania (carpel tunnel be dammed)

-Mickey’s Runaway Railroad (only because of the variation between vehicles)

-Slinky Dog Dash (it’s good fun)

-Rise of the Resistance (it’s amazing, but 3-4 would be my limit, it’s still mostly a dark ride)

Epcot:

-Soarin (the California one is better though)

-Frozen (I love log flumes, and that first Olaf AA rocks)

Magic Kingdom

-Splash Mountain

-Big Thunder Mountain

-Space Mountain

-Seven Dwarf Mine Train

-The Tomorrowland Transit Authority (just fast enough to be exhilarating while still relaxing)

-Haunted Mansion (maxing our at 3-4 though)

WDW isn’t Cedar Point or regional coaster park, outside of maybe 6 rides total at all 4 parks if you offered me 5 laps on a ride without getting off I wouldn’t be interested (splash, BTMRR, TTA, ToT, Mania, and Everest) because either the ride becomes stale or I would feel pain. Reriding is an empty wish fulfillment especially restricted to one park per day, think about it outside of MK, no other park has >12 rides. How are you going to fill your day? I think that’s why they are able to cut hours so much. I don’t need to ride Star Tours for the third time today, I’d rather hop to Epcot and do most of those attractions instead.

Touchdown said:

...but I continue to not understand why Epcot couldn’t have it’s fireworks show come back (that lagoon is huge, and if they did the show 1-2 hours before close, people would not leave en mass,) why Fantasmic couldn’t happen (with distancing) nor why they couldn’t do multiple projection and or stage shows (2-3 a night.)

Everything you're suggesting aside from Fantasmic does not have a way for the parks to control social distancing when a crowd gathers. Even with a large viewing area around the lagoon at Epcot, crowds will still gather in large enough groups to cause a problem. Unless a show has the ability to block off seats I doubt any type of entertainment that requires guests to gather and watch will happen. Fantasmic isn't happening right now due to Actors Equity not being back and, just my hunch, the enormous staff it requires to make that show happen. Adding more right now would require the parks to recall more Cast Members and my guess would be that until they see the income numbers in the range they want, they won't be spending more money on labor.

Jeff said:

Am I being optimistic that things could be "normal" in nine months, and that's worth waiting for?

It's interesting because I've had June 2021 as the date in my head for no real reason. But if someone had asked, I'd guess late spring into summer of next year.

Which is...let me count...1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9!

9 Months.

The fact that we agree on this probably means we're wrong. 🙂

ApolloAndy said:

I'm not sure what path would lead us there. If it's herd immunity, I think it will take longer than nine months since we're adding 40k cases per day and we would need to get up to +/-150 million. If we just give up and say "everything is open, let the chips fall where they may" I sure as hell am not going to Disney World. And if it's by way of vaccine, most Americans (3 out of 5) say they won't get the vaccine when it becomes available, with 1/3 unsure if they'll get it ever.

But, wait. Wouldn't the combo of those things create normal?

Those that want the vaccine will get it. Those that "let the chips fall where they may" finally get to quit whining about the precautions and get back to normal (at whatever risk level).

We're all good.

The only gap that might exist is the group that don't trust the vaccine, but also still fear the virus. But if 40% of the population (125-130 million) gets vaccinated (per your info) and another 16 million get it organically with current precautions (the current cases plus 40k per day until June first), you're almost to your 150 million herd immunity number.

I'm sure a segment of people will still die at some rate for a while, but herd immunity is right around the corner and the means of protection still exist for the "gap people" until we do burn it out.

You could argue distribution or accountibility or whatever. But if we could get the willing 40% of the population vaccinated by June 1 and the current rate of infection holds, we're awfully close.

Also, philosophically speaking, if we went the "let the chips fall where they may" route, things are technically back to normal (in terms of our actions) the minute we make that decision. If an individual still harbors reservations, that's on them the same as it would be under any circumstance.

I didn't really think about it as streaks being broken because I've never tracked my amusement park visits like that. I didn't notice it until I got my new pass at Hersheypark(they give # of visits that my wife and my passes have been scanned.) This is my 25th year in a row as a pass holder. My wife has 72 visits over the history of her pass(12 or 13 years she's been a pass holder,) and I was at 767 visits on my pass. ;-)

I've also have been going to PPP for years but never tracked my visits or how many years in a row I've gone. Maybe I should have done that.

I've only visited Hersheypark and Busch Gardens Williamsburg this season. We have a trip to Orlando booked for November to go to Disney, Discovery Cove, and Sea World. We were going to do Universal and BGT(since Iron Gwazi got pushed to next year, ) but since our last Disney trip was cut short due the corona we decided to push that out.

Sea World Orlando is doing fireworks shows, Disneyland Shanghai is too, Japan is about to restart parades and Paris is resuming castle projection shows soon as well. WDW could staff to allow some night shows to resume, they are choosing not to.