Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

I appreciate your analysis. Yeah, there was a Radio Lab on the dollar value of a life a few years ago. They looked at things like insurance rates and mining companies and stuff like that. That's why I know that it exists and I know the conversation is happening.

The problem is that because the death toll is exponential, it's not like we can gradually approach the break even point and then say, "Okay, now it's time to clamp on more restrictions because the body count is mounting." If we get anywhere near the break even point, and the thing isn't totally contained, we're going to go flying past it. Right now, the US is on track to double the case count every three days. That means in two weeks the case count (and presumable death toll) will multiply by 25x.

That's what I keep coming back to. Society literally can't function when the outbreak is still running strong. This whole thing, "Go back to work, and we'll just work through it," that doesn't work when everyone is sick and can't work, and worse, can't bet better or dies because the healthcare system collapses.

Universal just announced they are remaining closed through April 19th. I would assume Disney will do the same or close to it.

TheMillenniumRider said:

Here is the million dollar question, why did we not handle it like S. Korea?

Leadership.

"We save our economy by first saving lives." - Governor Dewine

There is a lot of info out there discussing South Korea. Like a lot of things, its more nuanced than a word or two.

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavir...sly-behind

South Korea was hurt by MERS in 2015 (other Asian countries viewed as doing better with this virus had big problems with other outbreaks in the past such as SARS). As a result, those countries put into place a number of plans for the next outbreak to avoid problems of the past.

Big part of that included being quick to test broadly. But also they have aggressive tracing processes in place.

What they did with that data, to contain the disease, could inform a science fiction movie. Beginning in February, the government posted the precise movements (without names) of everyone who tested positive — everything from the seat numbers they occupied in movie theaters to the restaurants where they stopped for lunch. The government obtained the information from cellphone records, credit card receipts and other private data it is authorized to collect in a health emergency. Other Asian democracies have taken comparably intrusive steps in the name of public health. Hong Kong has tracked some high-risk people under quarantine with wristbands.

With all the privacy laws in the US (including HIPAA) those would have been resisted and fought. Changes made after 9/11 to various US laws would have been difficult/impossible to enact pre-9/11. I would expect that with everything happened right now there will be more flexibility in making changes going forward.

There are cultural differences as well. Asian countries tend to me more Spock like (needs of the many outweighing those of the few). Western nations (particularly US) tend to favor the individual. Makes accepting what South Korea did easier.

Governments are different as well. Many Asian countries have authoritative governments. South Korea is a democracy but still has vestiges of authoritative regimes of the past. In addition to the federal government, the US has 50 state governments (plus local govts to boot). Herding cats to a large degree with huge challenges to maintaining consistency of message, plans, goals, etc.

Does Europe also evidence a failure of leadership? How about the Asian countries that were burned by outbreaks years ago? Seems to be something in human nature to be reactive rather than proactive.

It's pretty naive for leaders of any nation in the context of any culture to believe that disease cares about borders. If another country endures an outbreak, everyone should pay attention. MERS, SARS and ebola were not unknowns to the US government, the US government just prioritized different things, or ignored this particular thing. This administration in particular is so adverse to science and critical thinking that it's not surprising to see the mess we've had so far (or worse, the people convinced it's doing a swell job). It thinks everything will be normal by Easter.

Contact tracing, which at this point probably serves little purpose unless we can get it under control but then have to work to limit infection again while waiting for a vaccine, is not an impossible task even in the context of HIPPA. Anonymized patient data is pretty common already, with protections in place to name the underlying patients. I'm sure there's regulation around it, but it's not a big technical problem to overcome.

I find this interesting. The United States reported 123 deaths and 7 recoveries in the last 24 hours. In contrast Italy reported 683 deaths and 1036 recoveries in the same time frame. They now have more people recovered than who have passed. Spain, Germany, Iran, and France have similar data. We currently have three times as many deaths as recoveries. I don't if it means anything or just interesting.

Real time Covid-19 case updates

What does recovered mean? You got a positive test and were admitted to the hospital and then were discharged, i.e. you didn't die? Or you got a positive test and didn't go to the hospital and you didn't die? Or both?

That is a pretty neat website - thanks.

I believe it means you tested positive and, after some time and treatment, you test negative.

That's my assumption.

Here's what I don't get. Why are there still parts of the US (or really anywhere) that aren't in shelter-in-place? Like do they think something different will happen to them than has happened to the entire rest of the world? It boggles my mind how short sighted we are when we can clearly and easily see the future. It's like if a magic genie came up to us and said, "This will happen to you" and collectively we were like, "Enhh.....I don't think so."

Andy, I hate to be blunt but look at the political leanings of those areas that aren't shelter in place.

In my inter-employment period (ending next week), I subscribed to Masterclass. Expensive, but worth it. I did the Neil deGrasse Tyson class. It's short, but the long and short of it is that critical thinking is a choice that we have to make to be contributing members of society. There are so many people, especially on the right (but with some on the left, certainly), who believe that truth and fact is a matter of subjectivity. This is the thing that scares the **** out of me. It's what we're seeing now. You can't will scary things out of existence.

It really is frightening that we can't even agree on numbers anymore. I had a discussion with a friend of a friend on Facebook explaining why this is way worse than H1N1. I explained the difference on R0 values and the differences in fatality rates. I used very conservative estimates. The counterargument was "whatever you want your numbers to be...we can't stop Living."

I'm perfectly with having a reasoned sound discussion about acceptable loss to avoid economic catastrophe. However, when you have the Lt. Gov. of Texas intimating that elderly folks would rather die than have us face a recession, I know that crazy still rules the day in a large part of this country.

I don't know if you guys have seen this site but it's got a breakdown of which states are at shelter in place, social distancing, or jack *** and the consequences of those actions in each state. Granted there are assumptions to create any model but the creators are very transparent in their assumptions, which are based on legitimate sources.

That's telling, when Louisiana is acting too late. Mardi Gras is going to kick their ass weeks after it ended, and that's not a state with a huge population. Florida doesn't really tell the whole story, because it's such a big state, but Miami, and to a lesser degree Tampa/St. Pete are hurting. Not sure how Orange County has gotten off relatively easy, but then again, most of "our" people left the area a week ago when the parks closed.

This thing is going to kick the "Truthiness" crowd right in the ass.

I’ve got a friend in Houston Tx who is screaming his head off on social media. His state and local government officials are idiots and know-nothings. His main objection is that he feels the government shouldn’t be able to tell him what to do. Ever. I wanted to remind him that we’re all told, every day, of what our governments require us to do, but I think I’m not talking to him anymore. I believe he’s mad because they eat out every night of their lives and now he can’t.
Also, his house was badly damaged in the hurricane a couple of years ago. So he screamed that there was no assistance and had strong blame for FEMA throughout the entire process.
I hate to generalize, but.... Texas.

And maybe I’m speaking out of turn, but our own Travis has fallen ill. The good news is that he seems to have the worst behind him, is still waiting results of his test, and is living under quarantine conditions for now. He’s worked his Walmart job, interfacing with a denying public every day. The store employees that are taking things seriously have taken every possible precaution, but someone actually (perhaps knowingly) coughed right in his direction before he could avoid it. He points out that something simple like leaving everyone but one shopper at home would help. Instead he sees mom, dad, the kids, and grandma all coming into the store together. They have an idiot governor who’s made statements like “if you want to go to Bob Evans then go to Bob Evans”.
I haven’t heard anyone include “single person shopping” as a recommended practice, but I think it’s a good idea.
And once again I hate to generalize, but... West Virginia.

And don’t get me started on New York. It’s quite dense and there are plenty of underserved people there, but we should all hope and pray that the nightmare they’re living never comes to our doorsteps and be glad if we happen to live in a state that’s been as pro-active with precautions as we knew how.

I’ve said it before. God bless the front line workers everywhere. For once they command our utmost respect and I hope they’re never dismissed by anyone, ever again.

It sounds counterintuitive, but I hope he does test positive, because apparently that's what you need in order for Walmart to pay you sick leave. ****ing Walmart.

Here you go, nerds.

We're #1! USA! USA! USA!