Shanghai Disneyland will close in effort to contain coronavirus

^I noticed that last week as well. It kind of lost the effect when two of them were walking shoulder to shoulder near Spider-Man.

Dear Lord...please don't stop posting weird **** on Facebook.

(There is a sentence that looks as weird as it sounded as I was typing it).

I appreciate that there are differences of opinion on all of this...and I appreciate more that the two of you (Lord and Jeff) can be civil with your discourse in an era when that is really lacking.

wahoo skipper said:

Dear Lord...

Is this an expression, a prayer, or an imperative?

Lord Gonchar said:

ApolloAndy said:

This might be a gross over simplification (I'll get to one aspect of that), but it seems like in the first scenario, you're 8x more likely to get it "soon" but 8x less likely for it to seriously hurt you. On a back of the envelope calculation, that seems like a wash.

Ok, I follow this, but is it because 8x is still within an unacceptable risk range?

Because if something is not (or next to not) fatal, we really don't care about the spread so much.

So is it a wash because 8x less likely to kill you is still too much or because the math is multiply by 8 and then divide by 8?

Because we can hypothetically change that 8x to 25x and make the spread outrageous, but the risk non-existent and that's certainly not a wash.

I think you may be falling into a fallacy where "near zero" = zero? At least as far as I'm concerned, there's no such thing as acceptable/unacceptable or existent/non-existent risk. There's just non-zero probabilities of infection and injury. The only distinction that matters is "not fatal" (as in exactly 0% which no hypothetical Covid is) vs. "potentially fatal" (non-zero% which all these hypotheticals are) and that's an extremely important distinction because, mathematically, no matter how small the "potentially fatal" figure is, if you multiply it by a large enough number of transmissions, it becomes significant.

Whatever the finite, non-zero probabilities are, if you're N times more likely to get it and it's N times less likely to seriously hurt you, your risk of serious injury is the same (in the very near term), whether N is 1, 8, 25, or 1,000. So ultimately, yes you're multiplying by a number and then dividing by the same number, and as long as those numbers are non-zero and the things you are multiplying are also non-zero, they cancel.

Obviously, there are limits where things get saturated (at some point, when "a lot" of people have it, bumping into more positive people isn't going to meaningfully increase your chance of contracting it), but as a back of the envelope idea with somewhere in the ball park of 1% of people possibly transmitting, I think it works.

I'm just here for the frozen tit pics.

OhioStater said:

I'm just here for the frozen tit pics.

I apologize if I'm stepping on any toes, Vater.

It's not a typo, so I'll allow it.

Here's a "where you are in line" quasi-calculator from the Times. I'm not sure how useful it is. If I check that I have a "Covid related health risk," because my health record technically says I'm obese, I'm 17th out of 100 in line for Orange County, Florida. If I uncheck that box, I'm 98th.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vac...eline.html

Behind 268.7 million people in US, 10 million in Ohio and would be 90th of group of 100 in my county. But if I keep hitting submit (no changes to inputs), my place in line changes (went from 98th to 85th and spots in between).

^^ Yeah, that's kind of curious. If I use obesity (BMI of 32, so on the edge) I am 21st. If I use none, I am 96th in Summit Count, Ohio.

The weird thing is, if I use my age of 59 and obese, I am 21st. But if I use age 60 (next month) and leave everything else the same, I am 26th.

EDIT: OK, if I keep hitting submit, my place changes. I guess age is not a factor in my case.

It feels like we're missing the mark a little by putting fat folks next to cancer patients, heart failures, chronic lung conditions and the immunocompromised.

That's little more than a personal opinion. With that said:

40% of the country is obese.

If everyone has a fast pass, then no one does.

So it puts us chubs at a point in line (15th for me), but then there's another 40 chubs equally qualified for that spot, so once you line us all up, I could be as low as 55th in line.

And behind me at #56 could be a recent organ transplant or asthma sufferer or cancer survivor...but, you know, I like Big Macs, so move it.

Nevermind, that sounds like exactly how they'll do it.

Well, the subtext for the question includes obesity, so I'm just following directions. :)

But really, I'm not sure how any calculation puts you in the bottom 5 of 100, because based on the recommendations made so far, "everybody else" is like 30 to 50% of the population.

No implication on any of us. The guideline as listed includes obesity. Use it.

If I choose my age (47) and include no special conditions it puts me 4th from the end of the line in Greene County and groups me with "others" behind every other group.

If I put that I have a covid-related health risk, I get the 15th spot pretty consistently. But the "with health risks" portion of the line extends from the 11th spot into the early 50's. So, realistically, it could be any of those numbers because we're not going more granular on "health risks" - at least not in the tool.

Well, I did say, back on page 131.....

Bozman said:
^ Well, according to the CDC a BMI over 30 is considered to be increased risk. I would think that covers way more than 30% percent of the US population.

Not saying it's right, BTW.

This says 60% of US population has at least 1 Covid risk factor and 40% have at least 2.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/60-percent-of-americans-have...vid19-risk

I’m at the back of the line. I’ll get it ASAP but will feel a lot better once both my parents get it.

One spot ahead of the homeless and prisoners.

Anyone want to do a "front-back"?

No risk factors to speak of, but I did check "teacher" (although I am not sure if they count college). Uncheck that, and I am literally the caboose.

I'm 107th out of 107 (I counted all the people). Or I'm 3rd if I select "Health care worker", which I surely am since I work for a developer of telemedicine hardware and software, right?

GoBucks89 said:

This says 60% of US population has at least 1 Covid risk factor and 40% have at least 2.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/60-percent-of-americans-have...vid19-risk

That's 100%. We're all at risk!

Shut up, my math is infallible.

I'm curious to know if the manufacturing capability really ramped as early as Gates was hoping to see. Early in the summer he said in an interview that ideally they would start funding a number of plants, accepting that maybe 1 in 10 would actually be used due to failed trials. The logic was that the "loss" incurred would be worth it relative to the economic carnage of a slow roll-out. I can't find any real follow-up on that story line.

Can't eat what I want. Can't eat how much I want. Have to exercise. And now find out that I am at the back of the vaccine line.

It sucks being healthy.