Does Disney "need" a fifth gate?

This feels super click-baity, which is funny for a piece behind a paywall, but Dennis Spiegel thinks Disney "needs" a fifth gate to "maintain market dominance." Fortunately he screenshoted the whole piece and posted it on his LinkedIn profile so I can be critical of it for free. 😁 His case is that because Epic Universe is coming, it's "critical" to make a "bold move within the next 12 to 18 months." They have to do this to "maintain its relevance." And in our favorite topic of misappropriated relevance, he said announcing a new thing will "excite the fan base."

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure that Disney will build another park, eventually. I also think that adding an entirely new land to Magic Kingdom is the right thing to do to better handle the capacity at that park which is not getting less crowded. They basically rebuilt half of DHS, updated the middle part of Epcot, added Avatar and is replacing an entire land at Animal Kingdom. Spiegel makes it sound like Disney is caught with its pants down.

But the thing that I find ridiculous is the entire premise of what he's arguing. Why does Disney have to "dominate" anything? I very much doubt that the biggest thing on Iger's vision board is "dominance." Assuming for a moment that Disney is actually losing out on anything (and they're not), what does being #1 have to do with meeting its objectives? Growth and rank have nothing to do with each other. This is not a zero-sum game. He points out in his piece that projections show even more people coming to Orlando. If that's the case, as long as they're getting a piece of that pie, where they rank doesn't matter.

People have been saying this sort of thing since the original Universal Studios was built. And I was there the year it opened. It was kind of a disaster, with things barely staying open, relative to what little the then Disney-MGM Studios had in place. Islands of Adventure became a ghost town in the Vivendi days. After Universal got its groove back with the Harry Potter stuff, yes, they've been quite successful, but my bigger point is that it has not come at Disney's expense. There's no reason to believe that it will going forward.

"a rising tide lifts all boats"

In thinking about an expansion of the Magic Kingdom, what is the limit of transportation capacity? I haven't given it much thought, but I wonder if they will need to consider that with any significant expansion to the park. The lines to get in and out of the park at peak times (whether at the monorail or the ferry) can be pretty frustrating.

Also, the park already has to utilize the backstage alternative midway pretty frequently. Does a major expansion consider those types of logistics?

To the point of "need", I don't think Universal drives that conversation as much as the fan community might think.

The monorail/ferry situation is one of the reasons I loathe going to Magic Kingdom, especially if it means staying until close. That said, I think they run three ferries on busy days. Not sure if they could use more monorails on the express track.

I have absolutely no clue how the logistics would work for MK, but the Skyliner is a remarkable option for Epcot and DHS.

I would prefer they turn the two half day parks (Hollywood Studios, Animal Kingdom) into full day parks first. DHS desperately needs to add non headliner rides, ie rides that will keep a >45 min wait throughout the day. You are stuck at DHS choosing between waiting 60+ min for a headliner or seeing a show midday. It needs rides like Spaceship Earth, Living with the land, Grand Fiesta Tour, Small World, TTA etc.

Animal Kingdom just needs more rides, which they are currently working on, it also needs its night show back. That lagoon seems like the perfect place to stage a drone show supported by a few fountains and flamethrowers.

I think AK is easily a full day if you treat it like a hybrid zoo-theme park. DHS, depends on the day, but I could see spending most of a day, especially when it's busy.

If you are just in it for rides, AK is half day. If you enjoy the shows and the walk thru exhibits, it is easily an all-day experience. Ditto DHS.

I don't know if the Skyliner really makes sense for Magic Kingdom, but I could see an extension that goes to Animal Kingdom via the Coronado.

Jeff, can you still walk from MK to the Contemporary? Back in the day I used to do that to avoid the congestion at closing time and just hop on the monorail resort loop back to the TTC.

A full blown Marvel or Pixar park would destroy worlds.

Yes, you can walk to all of the resorts now from MK. They built a bridge going west from the entrance. I haven't done it, but I know it's there.

Jeff:

I very much doubt that the biggest thing on Iger's vision board is "dominance."

I don’t know, all the manager types seem to always be in a pissing match over who is better. Compare metrics, I’m number whatever, that sort of deal. Wouldn’t surprise me if he was similar in some fashion.

eightdotthree:
"a rising tide lifts all boats”

Unless yours has a hole in it.

wahoo skipper:
I don't think Universal drives that conversation as much as the fan community might think.

Universal drives conversation, and probably a lot of it. It would be crazy to think Disney isn’t watching competition like a hawk. Disney however is not worried about losing visitor ship over Universal. They sort of serve different market niches. If anything, declining birth rates are a bigger issue to those parks than their direct competitors.

I can usually polish off AK in a half day using Early entry and that’s with doing Lion King, Nemo and It’s Tough to Be a Bug. I will freely admit that I don’t do the walking trails often or take the train, but I feel I do a majority of that park.

order I do it:

-Rope drop Flight of Passage then do Navi River during EE

-Safari next

-Dinosaur and Kali River usually each twice

-Lion King Show then early lunch at Pandora, walk through some shops

-Nemo Show, It’s Tough to Be a Bug

-Single Rider Everest 3-5 times and out by 2pm.

Now trying doing that with a family, strollers, tired , hot grumpy toddlers.

Full day park for those peeps.

There are two problems with a fifth gate.

The first problem: the typical US vacation is too short for it to do anything other than cannibalize visits to the other parks. Ten years ago, CBS (among others) reported the average length of a US vacation is four days. That has lengthened a little post-pandemic, but the US has the smallest increase, worldwide. The "entry bandwidth" of MK is a concern. But the second problem is that the cannibalization is probably not coming from MK, but one of the other three.

The four main parks have all seen significant expansion--in effect, if not always in fact--over the last dozen or so years. MK's infrastructure has also been improved: The third ferry plus the two-level loading/unloading, running larger cruisers between the MK resorts and the MK boat dock, adding the third bus depot, etc.

There is a limit to how much farther MK can grow, but the solution to that problem is probably to continue to increase day ticket prices to keep a lid on demand, plus continue to double-dip operating days with hard-ticket night time events.

Disney should hate poor people more.

Brian Noble:

the typical US vacation is too short for it to do anything other than cannibalize visits to the other park

I think this is basically true, unless and until Disney reaches capacity at the other parks. But my sense is that’s only the case at Magic Kingdom, for now, and that no park will substitute for MK for many guests. MK is Walt Disney World to a degree.

While I don’t see it happening soon, if demographic trends hold and Texas continues to grow I think a 3rd US resort and castle park is more likely in the medium future (15-30 years) somewhere in the hill country surrounding Austin. If it’s built I would expect said park to have unique rides and or major changes to Disney classics (think Phantom Manor vs Haunted Mansion) so as to incentivize visiting the “classic” resorts on either coast and the new resort.

hambone:

MK is Walt Disney World to a degree.

That's a better way of putting what I describe as "the second problem," namely: MK is going to draw the lion's share of WDW attendance, and that's just structural. Building a fifth gate isn't going to draw as much from it as it will from the other three.

I also think Touchdown's suggestion of an entirely new resort is more likely than a fifth gate in Florida, though I personally wouldn't bet on either. At least for now, it seems like the Powers That Be view printing more cruise ships a better ROI. They are probably not wrong about that.

I hadn't thought about what Brian was saying, but it makes a ton of sense. The four-day vacation is probably a standard, until you get to people who have particularly robust time off, unlimited time off or they work for themselves. So in order to spread capacity around, another park may not have much effect if that's not the one people want the most. I really do think that expanding Magic Kingdom will help, though there's still clearly a limit to how many people go there in a day. We'll see if they close the gate on certain holiday week days this year.

While the 4 day vacation may be the average overall, is that the length of the average Disney vacation? I would guess a Disney vacation is longer than 4 days.