Jana Partners again calls for Six Flags sale

Who are they realistically selling to?

Private equity only makes sense if they see some untapped value they can extract, but Six Flags has already pulled most of those levers. They’ve sold parks, made major staffing cuts, worked on the debt, centralized corporate functions, and chased all the synergy stuff that was probably always going to be limited anyway. These are amusement parks, not Dollar Generals where you can basically duplicate the same operation hundreds of times.

A few of the other chains might be interested in individual parks, but the entire portfolio seems like a much tougher sell.

The ironic part is that Cedar Point alone as a going concern, might have a value surprisingly close to the current market cap when you consider the park itself, hotels, resort operations, Sports Force, other land and assets, and the cash flow it generates.

That really shows how little value the market is assigning to the rest of the company right now given the debt.

Interestingly, Ouimet says go for it.

No degree of financial engineering or changes in strategic direction will substantively change the downward path, unless the reins are handed to others who are willing to commit to the resources and rational timelines that are required to stabilize and ultimately grow the business.

Taking the company private allows (in theory) for more time than what wall street is willing to grant on a recovery. It is the lesser of evils, but history says PE is not great for guest experience.

Matt seems to be lobbying to be brought out of retirement.

Unloading Cedar Point would change the game and potentially be a new lifeline to save the rest of the chain. But you'd also be unloading one of the two (or three) parks that is the current lifeline keeping the chain from completely fading out completely.

I think Matt is really enjoying retirement, and has no desire to go back.

I am inclined to agree with Ouimet's logic, but I struggle to think of what company or group would want to buy Six Flags and then dump billions into improving the parks while also being patient about getting a return on their investment. Venture Capital is out - I can't think of a single time when VC bought a park or chain and then actually improved it. (I actually think SF is on a better course than United now, but I digress.) Other park operators don't seem positioned to make this move either - Herschend and Enchanted are almost definitely not interested or capable of a transaction this big. To my knowledge, the European operators aren't doing much better - Merlin seems to be on the struggle bus, and Parques Reunidos already made its clean break from the US.