Walt Disney World gets green light for affordable housing project

Don’t worry, there will come a day when Florida housing will be uninsurable, and then it won’t be worth the dirt it sits on.

Brian Noble:

Some of them will choose these more expensive options. That means they won't be bidding on less expensive options, which in turn doesn't jack up those prices.

This sounds like some warped version of trickle down economics.

Anyway, without some form of government intervention, housing will continue to rise. It’s no different than automakers pushing the market towards expensive bloated vehicles, then saying we can’t make affordable cars because no one would buy them. Homebuilders just aren’t building starter homes anymore. Smaller more affordable housing could be built at a more rapid pace and more would fit in the same space.

But again, basic economics suggests the rise will stop, eventually. Everyone said there was no ceiling circa 2000. Ask anyone who tried to sell a house in 2009 how that worked out.

The rise will absolutely stop, infinite growth is impossible, population growth forever is also unsustainable. Our current economic system is built on limitless growth, but that line simply cannot rise forever.

Also, just some quick and dirty data math, median house prices over median salary in the US.

1965 - 20350/3360 - 6 times income.

1975 - 32700/6000 - 5.5 times income.

1985 - 71500/12619 - 5.6 times income.

1995 - 108000/19502 - 5.53 times income

2000- 136000/25000 - 5.44 times income

2006 - 216000/30000 - 7.2 times income (peak bubble)

2011 - 173000/31024 - 5.57 times income (valley after crash, normal again)

2015 - 210000/35000 - 6 times income

2023 - 387000/50000 - 7.74 times income

Yeah, this is probably flawed in some way, but housing against income medians decreased slightly through the purchasing of homes by the largest generation ever. Then remained nice and steady until they were artificially propped up by lending practices, then they crashed back to average, and now again in the last 7 or so years have shot back up again. Population growth is nothing new and demand has forever been increasing. Have we just recently in the past 7 years forgotten how to build houses? I disagree with that, I believe there are many other factors in the mix causing the increase in prices again.

The data doesn’t lie, there are two clear anomalous spikes in pricing, the bubble in the 3 years leading up to the late 2000 crash, and the past 6-7 years. Other than that housing prices grew at a consistent steady rate very similar to median salaries.

TheMillenniumRider:

Have we just recently in the past 7 years forgotten how to build houses?

I think I've said at least twice that high interest rates and labor shortage has made construction more expensive. Even in 2017, my neighborhood took more than a year more than the developer wanted because they couldn't build fast enough, and that's only 300 units. Ten years ago, most of Horizon West was empty. They've added literally thousands of apartments and tens of thousands of homes. It hasn't been enough.

Clermont to the west has better home pricing, including new construction, but rent isn't much better. It's really out there though if you need to work in Orlando proper.