US theme parks not associated with any Covid-19 outbreaks

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence? I don't know anything about the details of tracing and I barely know anything about the details of Covid transmission, but "not associated" does't give me the hugest level of confidence that it didn't happen. That said, if I lived within driving distance of WDW, I'd probably be planning a trip right now.

A contact tracer asks people where they have been in the last x number of days. If Cedar Point showed up repeatedly as a location infected people have visited on the same day they would know there was an issue.

You are assuming there is an effective contact tracing program. There isn't. I'm in one of the most populous counties in Florida and the contact tracing is a joke. It is one of the biggest flaws in the government response to very few people are talking about...which makes the idea of kids going back to school and the onset of fall/winter especially concerning.

Contact tracing isn’t great but it’s good enough to know that outbreaks are occurring in bars, restaurants, funerals, etc...

For limited impacts the tracing can be effective, but there is no organized and comprehensive program in place, at least here in Florida. And, what the officials aren't saying is that they let it get out of hand in so many places around the country that any effective contact tracing is nearly impossible in some areas.

Had we not rushed reopening around the country back in June...and had an effective contact tracing program in place...I suspect the impacts would have been reduced. It was a missed opportunity coming out of the more restrictive lock downs too quickly.

It's definitely true that contact tracing is woefully insufficient---not just in Florida, but just about everywhere. And, it is awfully hard to prove something doesn't exist. But at the same time, based on what we are learning about the virus, I'd be willing to contemplate a short trip to an amusement park. (I'm not likely to go, mind you, but I would be able to imagine it.)

In contrast, I have zero interest in going to a restaurant, coffee shop, or bar and eating/drinking inside, nor am I all that interested in a movie, indoor concert, or play. The thing that's got me scratching my head is that I am also thinking about getting on a plane in a few months. I'm not sure how to square that particular circle.

I talked to a friend who has a doctorate in public health - not in infectious diseases, but connected to lotsa folks who are in that field - and who is fairly paranoid. Her take on planes was that they're pretty safe, once in the air. They have HEPA filters and exchange air pretty frequently. The problems are:

1) You don't really know what you're going to run into in the airport - TSA lines, lines at the gate, etc.

2) If the plane ends up sitting on the tarmac for an hour, they might not be running the regular ventilation system. This might be less likely given the reduction in flights and passengers, but it's still a risk.

Also, the benefit of taking a flight is (presumably) significantly higher than the benefit of seeing movie. I barely wanted to go see a movie when there was no risk to my health, but I am really missing travel, whether to see family, for leisure, or even for business.

eightdotthree said:

Contact tracing isn’t great but it’s good enough to know that outbreaks are occurring in bars, restaurants, funerals, etc...

If they could trace an outbreak to Put-In-Bay (like they did once already) I'm sure we would be noticing something by now if Cedar Point was an issue.

Brian Noble said:

In contrast, I have zero interest in going to a restaurant, coffee shop, or bar and eating/drinking inside...

You simply cannot argue with that science.

It will start getting cooler

I have to imagine that Disney is looking hard at any company that shows promise toward near-instant, non-invasive testing. That every industry that relies on people in groups for business isn't doing the same would be a surprise. That, to me, accelerates everything to "normal" and the post-vaccine transition.

Test which could be akin to a vaccine.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/08/cheap-daily-covid-te...o-vaccine/

I wouldn't take much stock in this article, since under the Trump administration the response to this virus is not only a disaster, but also a fraud. They are manipulating data at the CDC to make the virus look less fatal. The official that has to approve all CDC information to the public is (another) Trump appointee with no experience in the field. Contact tracing isn't being done properly in a lot of cases. It's actually disturbing the amount of information the public is NOT getting.

Also, from what I have seen at my visit this year, people cannot follow simple social distancing and mask rules very well. There is a reason that the virus increased this summer. The rush back to "normal."

Everyone needs to listen to Paul Rudd.

He's a national treasure.

hambone said:

0) Her take on planes was that they're pretty safe, once in the air. They have HEPA filters and exchange air pretty frequently. The problems are:

1) You don't really know what you're going to run into in the airport - TSA lines, lines at the gate, etc.

2) If the plane ends up sitting on the tarmac for an hour, they might not be running the regular ventilation system. This might be less likely given the reduction in flights and passengers, but it's still a risk.

0) - There will always be ventilation on a plane, even when "not in the air." Hopefully from the plane itself, via the APU (see 2,) This is HEPA filtered. If the APU isn't running at the gate the air comes from an AC/heating unit attached to the jetway or from a portable unit on wheels that can be towed from gate to gate. These are not filtered.

1) - True dat

2) - False. As long as there is electricity, there's air. Both come from the engines. If both engines are shut down to save fuel, air and electricity come from the Auxiliary Power Unit, or APU, at the tail of the plane. It's a small turbine (jet) whose purpose is to generate electricity and air when the engines aren't running, or as an emergency backup.

Good to know - thanks for the correction.