Six Flags third quarter income drops 16%

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Lord Gonchar said: Halloween is the new Christmas.

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Personally, I blame Tim Burton... ;)

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RatherGoodBear said:Were people really saying that the parks were ridiculously crowded, or just that lines for rides and refreshments were ridiculously long because of poor operations and customer service? There is a difference.

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At SFGAdv, you get BOTH! :)
Discussion-wise, I think we're still divided as to whether the GP really *gets* that distinction....I say they do (but QBot sales *might* suggest otherwise)....never forgot the op, while dispatching Toro trains every 5 minutes or so, suggesting that a GoldBot was "the ONLY way to experience the park"...that was SWEET.

One of my friends went to GAdv at Halloween and compared to his place of work where "they seem like they constantly rotate the people to different jobs and nobody really knows what the hell they are doing most of the time" lol. They had an OK time, but probably wont go back next year.

Maybe it is time for parks like Six Flags to consider premium pricing options. Charge more for the gate on the weekends, less during the week. I know the Chicago White Sox started doing it over the pass two seasons and it has been successful. Premium games, usually those series over big weekends and against other major market teams, cost more for tickets. I know that parks already do that to some degree with their discount options prior to the 4th of July. But perhaps they can raise the price for weekends in July and August, and for the Halloween events. And lower the price for times when they need to get more peeps through the gate.

Everyone's overthinking this.

Fact is, the problem with Six Flags isn't the gate. It's the delivery on money spent. It's being told "we don't have ice water cups, f-u" when there's a stack of perfectly good Coke cups in your face. It's employees who seem as if they'd rather be dead. The basic parks are decent, some excellent. I'd say SFOG - the only one I hit this year - is quite a good park. But the people skills suck. And they still suck under Shapiro. What they should do is pay a buck or two more an hour and have secret shoppers in the park CONSTANTLY. What they will do is crash and burn as Mark "Spinning Mouse" Shapiro completely lacks a grasp on the problem, which is customer service and customer service alone.

Not really. I'd say you're underthinking it.

Obviously, service is the problem. We've been through it a million times. Even people like me who can find reasons to support what SF is doing know the service is lacking...severely in some cases.

Don't think for a second that Shapiro doesn't know this. He knows more about what goes on and needs done than all of us little enthusiasts could yap about on a message board playing armchair CEO for a year.

Stop for a second and think about the total number of hourly employees that come in contact with the public at any given time at one park and then multiply that by all the SF parks. Then stop and think about the sheer number of hours that all of these parks combined are open in a year.

Can a company that can't turn a profit and that is riding 2 billion dollars in debt really afford to drop that kind of cash?

The answer of, "It's simple...just fix it" isn't an answer at all.

Lurker ---> The White Sox isn't the only team that is doing the pricing upcharges for bigger opponents and weekend games. All around it makes sense and it works.

I wonder if there would ever be a weather pricing structure...save 20 percent when it rains...etc.

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Lord Gonchar said:
Not really. I'd say you're underthinking it.

Obviously, service is the problem. We've been through it a million times. Even people like me who can find reasons to support what SF is doing know the service is lacking...severely in some cases.

Don't think for a second that Shapiro doesn't know this. He knows more about what goes on and needs done than all of us little enthusiasts could yap about on a message board playing armchair CEO for a year.

Stop for a second and think about the total number of hourly employees that come in contact with the public at any given time at one park and then multiply that by all the SF parks. Then stop and think about the sheer number of hours that all of these parks combined are open in a year.

Can a company that can't turn a profit and that is riding 2 billion dollars in debt really afford to drop that kind of cash?

The answer of, "It's simple...just fix it" isn't an answer at all.

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But it IS the answer, the only answer. No amount of family-friendly makeovers will change the fact that service sucks. That's the problem and fixing that is the lone solution.

And if Snyder's so sure about Shapiro, why doesn't he just put a cash injection into the company out of his pocket? He certainly could afford it.

To reference an earlier post referencing an earlier thread... 30,000 people in a park the size of GAdv should be well under its capacity. It should be noted though that Columbus Day weekend is in the 4th quarter. More importantly, how does attendance and revenue compare this year to last?

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Richie Reflux said:

I wonder if there would ever be a weather pricing structure...

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Maybe they should give discounts based on rides that aren't open... "today, there are 7 coasters open, you pay $30. Tomorrow, we think we'll have 9 open, admission will be $37.95."

Why are there crowds still flocking there, willing to wait in 2-3 hour lines? Maybe they think that's how things are in every park. If you spend your whole life taking a crap in the outhouse, you have no idea that other people have indoor plumbing. ;)

No, it's probably not even close to *capacity*, but 30,000 attendance is a big day at pretty much any park outside of Orlando.

Warning! Boring Gonch-Math Content Ahead!

SFGAdv was open 157 days this past season. That seems to be a decent number for the large regional parks. (CP is open 139 days next year, BGE is at 164, Morey's did 135 days this past year, PKI's was 124 days and SFGAm operated for 135 days)

These are the parks that generally are among the highest attended regional theme parks. Their average attendance in 2005 was 2.96 million. Their average season is 142 days long.

We end up with the 'average' day at our sampling of some of the most attended regional theme parks in the USA being 20,845 visitors.

30,000 guests is a HUGE day at any of those parks.

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Maybe they think that's how things are in every park. If you spend your whole life taking a crap in the outhouse, you have no idea that other people have indoor plumbing.

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YES! That's what I've been saying all along! The average park-goer (or GP as we love to say) doesn't realize how sucky the park truly is. Either that or they're not nearly as critical...or both.

That and the fact that I also don't believe the GP is generally as interested in the small, traditional style parks that enthusiasts have wet dreams about.

Not to forget the idea that GP visitors tend to 'stay local' when it comes time for a trip to the park.

Suddenly a clear picture starts to emerge...

...and it looks nothing like the people that post on forums like these. :)

But then again, despite all the TRs about huge crowds, etc., Six Flags own numbers are saying that attendance in the 3rd quarter is down 12 percent from last year. And this was supposed to be the wait and see quarter.

And it can't all be attributed to SFNO. How many days after August 27 or so would they have been open if there were no hurricane?

At least a few of the 12 percent must have realized what a sucky experience SF parks are. They've managed to increase in park spending, we're not sure how, but they need to follow that up with an increase in attendance (of people spending the same amount) to increase their revenue.

It seems like they're afraid of losing more attendance if they increase the price of admission or season passes. But then by holding or even lowering admission and pass prices, they increase attendance but gain no more per cap spending or revenue.

Yeah, the evil circle thing.

12% is a big drop. No doubt about it. These guys have to be pulling their hair out.

But in the perspective of the big scheme of things that's really only 1-in-10 who get fed-up enough to not come back. Obviously a business will die fast at that rate.

The flip side is that 9-in-10 are cool with it and do come back.

It doesn't bug the GP nearly as much as enthusiasts. (or would that be, "as much as enthusiasts think it does")

As far as that increase in per cap spending, I'd love to know how much the in-park prices raised. Like an across the board average percentage.

If it's 13% or less, that means in-park purchases remained equal or better than they were last year with the lower prices. If it's 14% or more, then they just found a good point where less people buy, but still buy enough to put them ahead in the end. (Gonch's First Rule Of Business in action)

But yeah, getting asses back through the turnstyles should be priority A#1, it should be tattooed on Shapiro's forehead (in reverse, of course) so he has to look at it every morning in the mirror. :)

Did you check out the alternate discussion on the subject in the news item? The discussion there kind of goes in this general direction.

When do or why won't other parks start advertising directly at Six Flags' weaknesses.

Let's say an aggressive Dorney campaign could say: "Why spend $60 to wait in lines for rides that break down, parking that is $15, and a water park that will set you back another $30, when you can come here for X % less and the water park is included?

Can they? Should they? Will they?

Once the general peeps are hounded that there is another way, a better way, maybe they will start to abandon ship.

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I could see the commercial now...

Visual: An endless cue and a clock with sweeping hands.

Voice Over: Is this your idea of a family trip to an amusment park?

Visual: Finally they get to the end of the line, sweaty, hot, (now focus on a 16 year old ride op - poorly dressed not caring at all)

Ride Op: "Sorry but the ride is closed."

Visual: (LIttle kid crying) "Nooooo!"

Close up of dad: And for this I paid $15 to park my car.

Now a visual of Moreys, Dorney, Knoebles (Or any competing park - showing happy people - rides working)

Voice Over: "You don't have to go to (insert the name of the 6 flags park here) your family will have a better time at (insert "y" park here)

Family fun, shorter waiting times, lower prices, free water park, etc.

Come to "Y" park. Instead of a great adventure, have a great time.

Six Flags Ohio did that talking about how people were coming there instead of CP. Look how it worked out for them ;)

BUT....I think it could be done brilliantly without mentioning any park name.

We actually just talked briefly about the SFWOA commercial in Podcast #51.

The consensus seemed to be that the second you have to mention the competition, you're done. All it does is make the potential customer aware of the other guy.

I suppose you could do it without mentioning names, but it still seems like an awfully desperate approach. If your product is good, you should be able to sell it rather than opointing out the weaknesses of the competition.

Mexico Field Trips - 500,000???

SFNO - 500,000+

SFAW - 1 Million?

Closing some of the parks earlier this season then the usual date - 250,000 people.

So... IF everything was the way it was last year, With SFAW & SFNO open, The field trips from Mexico City comming to SFM, and all the parks hours and operations the same.. would there be AS big of an attendace dip.. i dont think so. If anything what hurt the attendance this year was GAS prices. Yeah most of the people who usually visit say 3 or 4 times a year might have only visited ONCE or TWICE this year because of the gas prices.

Just so we're on the same page here, Six Flags is NOT including Astroworld numbers in its results as it is a discontinued operation. It wasn't mentioned during the call, but all one has to do is go by last year's Q3 revenue of $559 million -- and the $546 million figure that the company as 2005's Q3 revenue figure now -- to know that some things are already baked in.

We also don't have to guess on SFNO attendance as the company is saying it was 200,000 (nowhere near 500,000 -- keep in mind it was off to a slow season and it was NOT open in September post Katrina last year). For now, SFNO is still NOT considered a discontinued operation though it really seems like only a matter of time there.

And the Mexican field trip business was a hundred thousand or two (the company did mention the exact amount during the call, I'm drawing a blank on that at the moment).

So AW is NOT in the mix and backing out SFNO attendance was still off by 11% (instead of 12%). That's actually in the release.