Six Flags Gives Preview of First Quarter Results

LINK

Not much there as it's only a 'preview' so here's the key points:

• Attendance increased 6% compared to the
  2006 quarter despite a 10% reduction in the number park operating days.
• First quarter revenues increased approximately
  19% compared to the 2006 quarter.
• Total revenue per capita increased approximately 12% in the 2007 quarter.

The start of a turnaround, a fluke or a case of being so far down that you can only go up?

We can only take it one quarter at a time, I suppose, but it sounds like a good start.

I think it's called SFDK. When you theme a park differently, people are really curious to see what you did with the park. Also, SFFT is the park that has new stuff. I really doubt either of these parks got anything new last year.

Don't forget about SFOG free day. That drove attendance up (LOL). Right now, in my opinion, it doesn't prove anyhing. Those are the parks with new things especially SFDK.

A lot of it does have to do with those parks, but at this point in the game every park is open but SFGAm and Great Escape. So it has a lot to do with parks outside of SFDK and SFStL. Mostly SFMM , SFOT, and SF Mexico. Looks good for now, but its really not that big of a deal since this quarter only counts for 5% of the season. Plus all the parks that have been sold off haven't had a chance to leave their mark yet since most of those operating seasons havn't started yet. It will be an interesting year. So will 2008.

He's got his work cut out for him but I hope Shapiro pulls it off. I agree with his vision of the chain, with a few minor exceptions, and think he's on the right track.

I really don't understand all this bizness stuff, but I know it's important. It's just really boring to me so I don't pay attention. I guess it's good if company X is making money.

I just know how much fun i have at a park, and Six Flags fails badly in my book. Have to admit I've been spoiled by certain parks in the states of Penn and Indiana...

But once customer rage and fury begins over the VIP programs, attendance will drop a staggering 60%, with daily riots breaking out amongst the remaining few visitors...

-CO
(sorry, couldn't resist)

But the increased revenue from the sales of riot gear and Special Q-bots to move to the front of the riot lines will increase in-park spending by 65%.

I just graduated from the Gonch School of Business (and I also just saved a bundle on my car insurance). :)

those free days and stuff might explain the increased attendance but doesnt explain the 19 percent increase and the 12 percent per capita increase.

I give them credit . Two weekends ago I went to great adventure and they had every character that they had costumes for out.

Also the coasters were operating pretty good andfor atleast aprt of the day kk was even operating with three trains.

I do give them credit.

I agree that it sounds good. Hopefully this foreshadows better times ahead for the company.

I think this is not only good for Six Flags, but for the whole industry. I think parks feed off of each other to some extent. If the average guest goes to Six Flags and has a great time, they may turn around and say, "hey that was great, next time let's try out Cedar Point or Kings Island I hear they're good also". If Six Flags brings themselves up to the level of their competition, it is good for the entire industry.

If you went to one of the old "Burke era" Six Flags parks, guests were more likely to say, "I have had enough of these amusement parks, I am going to spend my money elsewhere".

I didn’t see this mentioned elsewhere, but this week SiX Flags also received $1.1 billion in credit, which will be used to refinance their current outstanding debt.One more step towards getting their debt level manageable.

While all this is encouraging news, keep in mind that according to last years income statement, First quarter revenues only account for about 4.5% of total revenue for the year. Attendance levels and revenue are already so minimal in the 1st quarter that a small amount of change in either direction will make a large percentage increase or decrease comapred to when they really do business. So percentages don’t really mean much to me because their only doing less than 5% of their business in this period. Encouraging Yes, Definitive No.

So basically it’s like winning a preseason football game :). Maybe it will give them some momentum. *** Edited 4/27/2007 9:30:07 PM UTC by Joe E.***

I was extremely impressed with great adventure when i went two weekends ago. To my amazement there were alot more families with little kids then i was sued to seeing at the park.

Six flags new management has to keep this up through the WHOLE year.IF they can do that then this will be a good year.

I don't expect miracles for the first year.

The characters were even playing around with the little kids signing autographs and everything.

Daffy duck even put himself in a photo that was just me and bugs lol.Just liek his character should be doing.

I Really hope this continues throughout the summer.

majortom1981, can you elaborate more on family interaction with the characters. Did the kids like the Wiggles and Thomas the Tank Engine characters/theming or whatnot? It sounds like things might be promising this season.

Does anyone know when SIX will officially announce Q1 earnings?

I was going to start a new thread with this, but I'll just add it here.

I don't know about every market, but in the New York metro area, there has been a radio ad running about 6 Flags.

In the spot, a dad is giving his son 90 bcuks to sepnd how ever he wants on his birthday. The kid instantly says that he's going to use it to buy a 6 Flags Seasons Pass.

Skeptical dad says something about putting his money into more than one place and eludes to the kid getting bored.

"No way. In April I'll ride Nitro. In May I'll ride El Toro..."

Dad chimes in, "But only if you take your sister to the new Wiggles world."

The boy agrees (like a typical big brother would) "Sure!"

Isn't this what they are trying to get away from? Don't they want the parents in the parks spending the money?

From what I've been reading, Great Adventure is off to a nice start this year. I hope they can keep it up.

I just think the ad is wrong for the direction they are going.

Also, I keep expecting the Venga Boys tune to kick in...but it doesn't and it feels lacking.

Richie Reflux said:

"No way. In April I'll ride Nitro. In May I'll ride El Toro..."

That's about right considering how long the lines are. :)

What's missing from this information and this discussion is the ever present "p" word - profit.

I don't care if your revenue is up 100%, I am more concerned about your operating expenses and what your income is for the quarter.

Revenue could be higher due to a change in revenue recognition as well. For example, if I bought SFKK passes in January - the accepted way to recognize that revenue would be incrementally starting at the time SFKK opens. But I could, and maybe this is what SIX did, realize it when the passes were purchased. They could have also added potential revenue for passes mailed (with an offset liabilty no one will notice but accountants and someone looking for the truth) backing off those never paid for or used in Q2 or Q3.

Another - possible cause for increased revenue is the sale to PARC. $300MM is not a bad number to add in a normally losing quarter.

Finally, refinancing some of their debt (they note $2.24 billion at YE 2006) may help, but the terms stink as the risk is high.

In March of 2008, when final SEC filings are made for 2007 - then we will know for sure.

I believe the 19% increase in revenue is explained by the other two stats.

A 6% increase in attendance coupled with a 12% increase in per cap spending equals a 19% revenue increase.

^Maybe - but not necessarily. 19% increase in revenue would take more than a $4 bump in per cap spending and an extra 20,000 guests.

If you do the math you will see that using basic numbers, it would increase revenue just a shade over 12%. This is using $30 per cap and $40 gate, with 100,000 guests to start. Of course I made up these numbers.

The other peice missing is when did prices go up in 2006, was it before Q1, during Q1? That plays a role in the difference too.

Plus, where's the "p" word?

I don't care if you bring $1 billion more, if you spend it all (and then some) - its irrelevant.

*** Edited 5/1/2007 12:06:59 PM UTC by CoasterDad64***

EVil ROB. The only character interaction that i saw was with the loney tunes and Justice league.

One group in front of us was sort of making fun of flash and he turned around to them and pointed at them and gave them a dirty look, I mean in character.

Also like that daffy duck thing I posted before

They were interacting with the little kids and stuff also.So far I was there this past saturday also and they were still doing it.

I don't know about the wiggles characters because I am not usually in that section.

MY main concern is if they can keep these things up during the busy months of the summer. I can see the start of a turn around if they can.