Six Flags 2nd Quarter Results

You know they must be decent if I'm posting them. :)

(link)

Mostly the same stuff with revenue and per caps up.

For the six-month period attendance is up 3% over last year. So much for the pricing scaring the crowds away.

It's called everyone has a season pass now. Ha, ha. They come more.

Except that the season passes have been handed out like party favors for the past five years. That's nothing new.

Good for six flags, and good for the industry.

Didn't SF pay off *some* of the debt with the money from PARC? Looks like there's been a slight INCREASE in outstanding debt...

Yeah, that is odd. PLus look at that interest expense! It will be tough to get back in black (the AC/DC reference was too good to let go :)) until that comes down.

Of note, the increase of revenue from attendance and added per cap(300,000* $37.02 per cap=$11.1 million) did not recoupe the added marketing expense of $14.1 million. Maybe they are trying to get people back to the park to see the "improvements," then scale back the marketing later. *** Edited 7/27/2007 1:15:02 AM UTC by Joe E.***

Joe I think your on to something. I believe Mr. Shapiro mentioned exactly what you said. They are looking for ways to get people into the parks to give them another try. I haven't listened to the whole conference call but he did mention in their focus groups one of the things they found out was families are looking for confirmation that things have changed before they try the parks again. Well, how do you do that?

Debt may have increased as a result of the Dick Clark Productions purchase that SFI was involved in.

I really think part of the attendance increase in which they did say, (but than they are like more season passes) was the group sales. You go to a SF, and in July now, there are buses. This wasn't the case before. That really explains a lot to me. I've found out that most buses hold about 3 kids per row that are grades 1-5, and 2 kids per row for the grades higher than that.

A maximum capacity for one of those buses (with 3 per row) was 77. With 2 it would be, less. If you have every bus filled with 77 kids, and there are 20 buses. That's an extra 1540 people. Capacity on a BTR at SF was around 890 only. And I've seen more than 20 buses this year on one day. It was ridiculous how many there were.

They go no matter what the weather is. They have to spend money because, what are they going to eat? They are adding to in park spending also. I think that's the "real" reason for the increased attendance. The season passes do help considering those people who usually go 1 time before might be going a whole 4 times a year. The reason has to do with the fact that if you go one time, and not use a coupon, it's $54.99.

And they did mention that they are have had a slow ("soft") July for 3 weeks.

Great news! :)

I'm very excited to hear that the debt isn't bringing them down like in years before. Shapiro is a genius. I just wish they would raise the prices a little bit higher (50% sounds about right) to minimize the large crowds.

The new SFMM commercial shows "family-type" people commenting on how clean the park is, how much there is for them to do together, and how they're glad "the park is not closing." Even the footage of people on rides shows families riding together including the coasters.

*** Edited 7/27/2007 4:45:43 AM UTC by Mamoosh***

I probably saw at most 5 children under the age of 10 at Magic Mountain two days ago.

That's 5 more than last year!

So you're saying the lines are short for the kiddie rides. Wait, there are kiddie rides there, right?

^Yes there is. There is a kiddie section. Believe it or not, and there are also flat rides at that park. That's a shock! Seriously, people think that park only has roller coasters. I don't get it.

Flats & Water Rides:
Yo-Yo
Baveryn Kurve
Antique Cars
Himilaya
Tilt-A-Whirl
Scrambler
Freefall
Round-Up
Rocking Boat
Rotor
Tower Ride
Bumper Cars
Roaring Rapids
Shoot the Chute Water Ride
Two separate Flumes
Enclosed Water Slide with tube (Not part of the water park)

They don't have the most flats in the world, but it's not like they have nothing. The flats are comparable (in amount) to a lot of SF parks. The only parks that have a lot of flats seem to be SFDK, SFOT, SFGAdv, and SFGAm.

If the marketing expense over the entire season washes out with the increase in attendance then I think it's a reasonable hit, but it's also contingent on showing people a good enough time that they'll come back next year.

Is anyone happy about what they might do for next year as in regards to shows? They said that they are basically going to not have live performers at some shows (because it's cheaper), and instead show the grammy's highlights, or some other award shows highlights. I don't know, maybe they are even thinking music videos tooi. Is this just the stupidest thing or what?

Now, they wouldn't get rid of all the live shows (I didn't sound like), but maybe 1 or 2. It was in the conference call. Would anyone waste there time watching these? Granted, I don't watch many shows in the parks, but that just sounds horrible in ways possible. The whole point was that people don't come to the park for the shows. They come for the air-conditioning, and to relax (Get off there feet).

How can anyone read this as good news ? Six Flags was down 13% in attendance and 100 million in cash flow in '06 . Their loss widened in the 2nd quarter of '07 and Mark Shapiro said the first three weeks of July " have been dissapointing " . The stock got hammered down by 14% on Friday ( the percentage loss leader on the NYSE ! ) and is down 43% to the late May high . These guys are flirting with becoming insolvent and bankruptcy .

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How can anyone read this as good news ?

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Because all the factors that show the start of (or potential for) a turnaround (attendance, revenue, per caps) is up.

The in-park factors are more positive than they've been in years. That's what I'm looking at.

^^With what you are saying, I agree with you now. I worry a lot about attendance because I think it has to do with future customers. It's easier to keep customers than bring them back. They lost 13% of people last year. Right now, they have gained 3% this year. So, they still have lost 10% so far.

They don't have to break even to prove me that they are doing good. They have to exceed it. I care that they get those people that they lost last year, and they need more people to come to the park. If there is hardly anyone at the parks for 3 weeks in July, you can easily lose 210,000 people for one park (10,000 down a day from previous year * 21 days). That's a lot of people.

So, is attendance going to be down 3% for the 3rd quarter. Are we back to not gaining any attendance this year? It's way too eary to tell, but what he said did not sound good at all. You can tell by the sound of his voice (Shapiro) that something was wrong. He sounded like he was at a funeral for a little part of the call.

To me, they still have a long way to go to prove themselves, and they haven't proven themselves yet.

SFGADv does NOT have alot of flats. They have a top spin,log flume if you want to count it a music express and a swinging ship. Otherwise there's pretty much just kiddie rides and the coasters. They also have the space shuttle and paratroopers but they are rarely open. SFGAdv needs some good quality flats.