My favorite MJ tune: "Billie Jean" which I have been listening to alot now. RIP MJ.
The risk at this point is proportional to how much money you throw at it. To me, putting a couple hundred bucks into it wouldn't be that big of a deal. I think they've got at least a 50/50 chance of turning it around in the long term. That's better than Vegas odds. :)
I'm already fearing the worst for Michy Adventure even without considering future of Gurnee.
R.I.P. Hercules, Villian, Big Dipper, and RWB :( *** Edited 1/5/2008 1:14:51 AM UTC by Rye.D.Ziner***
Six Flags is in trouble, but the sector is also smarting lately. Cedar Fair is still profitable, though its units are trading at levels last seen 5-6 years ago (even adjusted for the distributions, you're talking a nearly five year low).
2008 is supposed to be THE year. The third year in the three-year turnaround plan for Six Flags under Shapiro. The third year in the Paramount Parks acquistion for Cedar Fair that was supposed to be accretive by Year Three. The market thinks that neither company is going to live up to its original expectations. The consequences for missing are more dire for Six Flags, of course.
If rumors are true, we could see some more Dive coasters in 2009, but not at Busch-owned parks.
I don't see how selling any more parks would be good for business, and Cedar Fair is in over their heads with the Paramount acquisition for the time being. For Cedar Fair, the renaming of rides (meaning you'll need all new merchandise), having to redo the Paramount signs (that can't be cheap), having to come up with new front and back ends for the former Italian Job Rides all adds up.
I honestly don't know if we'd see too many "new" rides this year without the loss of Geauga Lake. And even that costs a lot of money in terms of tearing down rides at one location and relocating them to another location. Do you think the Dominator rebuild is going to be easy? Hell no.
Besides tearing up the parking lot as Rablat5 just supplied, they're going to need a lot of new footers I'm guessing due to the finale of the ride which took place mostly in a marshy area. I'm sure a new station will be needed as well. Then you throw in the repainting of the track and trains, and things really add up.
I don't see them having Dominator anywhere near ready by opening day (which is 74 days away), but it should bring a big gate increase--probably the biggest since V:TBC or Anaconda.
Put some money in. It's pretty cheap right now. Sure it can lower. It can also go higher. Odds are pretty spot on for the long term. The sector is struggling right now, so when the sector moves up, so will SIX. Just don't drop more into it than you're willing to lose flat out, as that's always a possibility. Always.
The Flying Turns makes all the right people wet - Gonch
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