Disney dogged more and more by analysts

Thursday, December 4, 2008 2:39 PM

rollergator said:
^that there are enough people left behind to do the job SHOULD they be allowed to take a vacation.

Here's the catch-22 with that statement: Unless I'm mistaken, there is NO wording in US labor law that GARUNTEES a vacation of ANY amount, unlike say, Germany, where the rquirement is for, four weeks off, is written in.

Aside from that, with the advent of Crackberries (Blackberries), and mobile networks all over the place, when people leave the office, they nearly expected to stay in touch. Not to mention in some states with "at will" worker policies, (New Hampshire and Ohio are examples), workers can be replaced at any time for any reason, even if they're on vacation.

As for people traveling more, I think many people have FINALLY realised that they need to manage their money better, and that includes paying off their debts. I think "staycations," and maybe some shorter distance traveling, Say a Chicago family goes to CP and HW instead of just going to SFGAm.

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Thursday, December 4, 2008 2:43 PM

I have a feeling everything will be OK with no significant drop in attendance, but a perhaps a drop will occur in air travel.

I'm not so sure. I go the same time every year---late February, when the Snowbird season is up and running. Most years, the discounts are very few and very far between. This year, they are MUCH more generous.

Those discounts might drive some new business to Central FL, but they also cannibalize from folks who might otherwise stay offsite.

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Thursday, December 4, 2008 2:47 PM

I can "GARUNTEE" (seriously dude, if you type it all caps, it's still wrong) that the Blackberry crowd is a subset of white collar over-achievers and over-consumers. They're not a majority, and people in that income range aren't the ones who are going to stay home and not take vacations.

I think Cedar Fair's three-quarter results sent a pretty clear message that they're pricing the gate right, but too high on everything in the park. If that's the kind of price sensitivity that consumers at large are facing, plane tickets and long drives are definitely out of the question.

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Thursday, December 4, 2008 3:08 PM

I've been one saying the fear is overrated and up until recently that's proven true. People kept spending and park attendance didn't nosedive.

I think this is the year that people do scale it back. I don't necessarily believe people have to in many cases, but I think its becoming a self-fulfilling sort of thing. It's been said so much that it becomes true.

I suspect that everyone is going to feel it this year and that even the 'staycation' is no longer something the regional or local level parks can count on.

Business will be down in 2009. (real bold prediciton, huh? ;) )

On the positive side, if you can travel, you'll find stellar deals and great park-going conditions.

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