California's Great America faces imminent closure in 2027

CGA is a far better park than Discovery Kingdom. It’s a shame that it wasn’t better developed to be on par with the Chicago park. Over the years its original land footprint was shrunk repeatedly for quick cash given the value of real estate so now it’s a challenge to build anything significant to make the park really work.

I also believe that if the “Great Reset” doesn’t work the next potential park to go is Magic Mountain. The land there is also far more valuable for real estate development than what the park currently produces in results and I could see Bassoul push Zimmerman to pull the plug. This merger has put them in a corner and it’s what everyone knew would happen given the inability to raise prices at legacy SF markets.

How do you know what kind of margins Magic Mountain produces?

Jeff:

How do you know what kind of margins Magic Mountain produces?

Valid question, but one that does not negate the general premise that SFMM is on borrowed time. The rapid encroachment of development around SFMM is a harbinger of bad times ahead. There was serious concern that SFMM would have gone the way of Astroworld back during the great recession. Land prices in California have only gone higher since then. It's going to be challenging to keep ROI (or ROA) high enough to offset the short term gain of a sale.

To be honest, most of the Six Flags parks (including legacy CF's) are now in areas with significant development. I was just at Canada's Wonderland for the first time in 30 years, and was shocked at how the park is now surrounded by homes on all sides. The extension of the Toronto Metro System all the way out to Vaughn has caused that area to just explode with developmemt.

Sadly the end of Drive-ins, Horse Race Tracks and old time traditional parks is staring at the legacy theme parks of the 70's. What was once 25 miles out of town, and "in the middle of nowhere", is now absolutely smack in the heart of suburban sprawl.

Six Flags has about 100 acres of land near neighborhoods where the average home sells for about $1 million, along with a mountain of debt to pay off to placate the stockholders who approved the merger with Cedar Fair, which is probably the same reason they're selling Six Flags America.

Magic Mountain is notable because Six believes its attendance can double. However, activist shareholders want the company to sell and lease back land—an approach that only works if the park is financially healthy. If Six sees doubling attendance as a key initiative, it suggests the park is under financial strain in it's current state. They tried being open 365 days to grow attendance, and then dialed back on that. This park will probably take a page out of Great Adventure's playbook in the coming years. When they introduce their next new coaster, expect several others rides to be chopped at the same time.

CreditWh0re:

SFMM is on borrowed time.

If they can sell off the assets to increase margins and make a quick buck it wouldn’t surprise me. They have plenty of parks and if they sell 6 or so they can make the balance sheet look really good, boost those stock prices, collect their bonuses and walk away. The next guy can figure it out. That is the way in this ****hole country.

Without knowing the actual margin, room for growth, and assessment of the land value, that seems like a lot of "ifs." There are only a few parks in the chain at that scale, and while a one time cash infusion from a sale may be lubricative, it's still a one time thing. If they own the land outright and can get the numbers they would like, it's recurring revenue.

Now, if the market is saturated, with another park that they also happen to own, then maybe they should bail. But adjacent $1m houses isn't a reason by itself. I mean, Disney has those here, and they're not selling. 🙂

Disney is also run by more competent leadership. Zimmerman Bassoul &co, don’t exactly inspire confidence. I wouldn’t put them in charge of a hot dog stand.

I was kidding about Disney, thus the emoji.

Their “Great Reset” definitely isn’t going to work. They continue to chase the same limited customer market of thrill riders and little children. They just regurgitate the same customers when they add a new coaster.

Add to that the elimination of qualified leadership and staff and it’s a recipe for disaster

this company is no longer in the entertainment business. They are not trying to improve guest experience and bring in more guests.

They are an asset management company now. They are focused on cost cutting to bail water out of a sinking ship When an asset can no longer cash flow after they strip it down, they will liquidate it

I am concerned about the future of Carowinds given its mediocre attendance and it’s prime warehouse location

CreditWh0re:

I was just at Canada's Wonderland for the first time in 30 years, and was shocked at how the park is now surrounded by homes on all sides.

At least Cedar Point seems to be safe from this type of problem. I mean, they're out of land anyway...

My unpopular opinion is that Great Adventure is a park that may not be 100% safe from closure. It already seems the promised investments in expansion for 2026-2027 replacements for Kingda Ka and Green Lantern aren't necessarily happening.

Magic Mountain was almost sold/closed back in 2006 but old Six Flags ultimately saw value in the park and reversed course. There is no reason why it can't be on the same level as a Cedar Point or Canada's Wonderland if operated properly, but like others have said, the current regime at Cedar Flags hasn't been quick to get their portfolio of parks to the guest service standards of a mid 2010s Cedar Fair park.

CreditWh0re:

What was once 25 miles out of town, and "in the middle of nowhere", is now absolutely smack in the heart of suburban sprawl.

Seems to be happening to alot of parks over time. Six Flags Fiesta Texas is experiencing this as well.

Regardless of what happens with Magic Mountain, this is correct. Kings Island was a cornfield that was paved over, and is now swamped with development the way the old Coney Island was swamped by the Ohio River. And compounding this, corporate owners taking direction from the market and needing to hit 20% margins are making cold-blooded decisions.

(The best I could do was estimating Magic Mountain's land was around $20MM, although a contiguous property that size might command more. That doesn't seem like enough to justify closing the place and selling. But I might be wildly off. It's hard to find prices for empty land nearby.)

Magic Mountain is already suffering from traffic issues. Not the access to the interstate), but the left turn exiting the park which now has to cross significant oncoming traffic from all the development behind the park. For 47 years, there was no need to worry about traffic coming from the right as you exited the park, now it's a constant problem. That's not going to get any better with time.

Great Adventure isn't suffering from development when compared to SFMM, SFOT, CW, KBF, etc. Knott's has managed and will continue to do so. The others, are certainly facing a future problem that will only become more dire over time.

Cedar Point has also expanded in recent years with the addition of the sports center and the acquisition of Sawmill Creek, providing two year round revenue sources for the property.

Is there potential for other top tier parks to expand in this way? I have no doubt the addition of the sports center helps the bottom line in ways a new ride can't.

BrettV:

My unpopular opinion is that Great Adventure is a park that may not be 100% safe from closure. It already seems the promised investments in expansion for 2026-2027 replacements for Kingda Ka and Green Lantern aren't necessarily happening.

I will say I still think it all happens just at a slower pace. They probably got smacked in the face with the current political climate and imports from Europe. If they were looking at a B&M Giga I bet we would have seen action already. With the high probability that they were building a Mack Spinner it makes sense for a delay/pivot to another idea.

super7*:

I am concerned about the future of Carowinds given its mediocre attendance and it’s prime warehouse location

Why move corporate headquarters there, Six Flag Entertainment is taking over the Cedar Fair headquarters space if you are going to close the park? Moving it there to move it elsewhere in less than 5 years just sounds not a sound business choice.

Plus they partnered with Marriott for a hotel so I think the park is going to become their third to sixth focused park. I see the top 6 as Cedar Point, Great Adventure, Kings Island, Magic Mountain, Canada's Wonderland and Carowinds. Order may vary year by year.

Knott's is probably #2. Almost certainly more profitable than Magic Mountain.