Anecdotal evidence of Disney dissatisfaction and discounting

I didn't want to post this as news, because honestly it's mostly anecdotal and without data. The gist is that Disney magic is gone and not worth the cost, and maybe they're discounting rooms and one ticket package.

From the article...

the cost of a high-end trip to the Florida parks has now reached around $40,000 for a family of four

Holy cow! But why define that number when it is not applicable to the majority of people going to Disney?

Again, not news, and stuff like that is the reason. Arguments for anything are often made at an end to a range when it's far from typical.

I do think that LL and the resulting standby situation has left people feeling less great about things. I'd pay more if they just brought back free FastPass. I don't know if that would be a widely shared sentiment.

The discounting might have nothing to do with Disney-specific vibes. Apparently the Comcast quarterly from last week mentions soft domestic theme park performance.

Here's the lede from the earnings call:

Revenue [in the experiences segment of media + experiences] decreased 11% and EBITDA declined 24% in the quarter compared to last year's record level for a second quarter. As Mike highlighted, two-thirds of the decline was driven by our domestic parks due to lower attendance compared to last year, largely reflecting two factors: normalization in demand post COVID, combined with the timing of our domestic attractions.

Full transcript here:

https://www.cmcsa.com/stati...27058dca43

Man, I missed that. I'm not following news very well these days. "Normalization" I think is a good word for what's going on at the moment. My anecdote was that the day after July 4 was relatively "empty" at Epcot, like just-before-a-hurricane empty. It was fantastic. Also, no festival.

I saw someone refer to it as "Diet Epcot."

There is a bit more at play. ow many people did their major vacations to Disney a year or so ago to "celebrate" coming out of the pandemic and thus are not doing it now? And beyond that, is the "baby bust" of parts of the country starting to impact them as well. (For those not familiar, birth rates in many parts of the country have fallen significantly over the past 10-15 years. If the birth rate has fallen, there obviously are less "kids" to take on trips to Disney.

FWIW Universal Orlando is offering Florida residents a buy one ticket, go until December 18 deal right now.

Number of babies born in 2023 in the US was the fewest since 1979. Fertility rates in US have generally be declining since the late 1950s. Similar trends in developed countries across the world. European birth rates are lower than the US.

https://time.com/6970873/us...023-total/

I can do Disney, cheaply, and its an alright experience, but expensive. I can do Disney properly, and its a really good experience, and its stupid expensive.

I would be happy doing a little expensive for the really good experience, or cheaply for the alright experience, so I guess what I'm saying is they are just too expensive?

Disney for the really good experience and just a little expensive, maybe 4 or 5k, I'm leaving the country instead. When I say really good experience, I'm staying onsite, eating at the sit downs, and doing all the parks. I used to be able to stay at a Deluxe and eat at the good restaurants for far less than 4 or 5k.

Who is spending 40k for Disney, I could never imagine that. Ever. I can do a lot cooler stuff with that amount of cash.

Regarding population decline, please, it will force businesses to be more competitive and some of the garbage to disappear, they won't have so many masses to just charge whatever and do whatever. The current system is built on forever growth and that is simply impossible.

Even doing the VIP tour with another (large) family, I'd never get close to 40K. And I've done that twice with my ex's family (because I'm well adjusted and we're friends, and y'all may remember her from the podcast).

Walt S:

There is a bit more at play. ow many people did their major vacations to Disney a year or so ago to "celebrate" coming out of the pandemic and thus are not doing it now?

That's not more, that's what post-pandemic "normalization" is. The end to "revenge travel."

We are nothing more than an anecdotal family from NE Ohio.

Just out of curiosity I wanted to try to recreate our two recent visits (the latest of which was 7 years ago) just to see what price increase there would be.

It's pretty simple: 1) Last week of May....arrive on Monday leave on Saturday, 2) Art of Animation (a "cheap" resort) Lion King Suite, 2) 5 nights with 4-day tickets, Disney Dining Plan, and I remembered to add Memory Maker.

Previous two trips (no airfare included) we did this for just under $5,000 both times. Right now booking the exact same trip tops out at just over $8,000.

(pics or it didn't happen)

Now right before Covid hit we actually had our 3rd trip planned; mainly driven by my personal quest to play in Star Wars land. Again it was right around $5,000, and of course because of the plague we had to cancel, thinking we would certainly be planning a return trip.

Again, we're just a small unimportant anecdotal data point from NE Ohio, but with what else we could do with that money, I see absolutely zero value in tossing almost 5 figures at the mouse to stay at a "value" resort for our family of four.

And I liked The Acolyte.

And, yes, Jeff; I would agree the whole LL, etc. is off-putting.

That young-person cliff is something we have all feared in the world of academia for years, and it is indeed finally here. There are currently fewer high-school graduates in Ohio than at any time in the past 5 decades. A lot of smaller private colleges are either struggling or just closing (Notre Dame)...not that the larger schools aren't although it's easier to hide...I hadn't thought about that with regards to Disney and other theme parks but I can see that as being a thing.

I used to stay at Deluxes for 400ish/nt.

Coronado was in the 200’s last I was there.

Its costs me the same or more to go to Monsieur Paul, what I used to spend to go to V&A.

Someone is paying these prices (or maybe not) but it isn’t me.

8000 for a value resort? No thanks. I can spend 3 weeks on a Cruise Ship for that price.

Over at another coaster website there's an article concluding that it's currently cheaper to go to Tokyo Disneyland than Walt Disney World. There are a lot of assumptions getting to that point, of course, and it's based on a 2-person trip, not a family of ... whatever. And, one of the big drivers is the USD-JPY exchange rate. Still, it's plausible enough.

(And, with all due respect to our Florida friends, after you're done with Disney, you're in Tokyo.)

https://www.coaster101.com/...d-in-2024/

Wasn't this exactly Disney's plan to curb their crowds? Increase the cost to visit until they could effectively control attendance?

Seems like they succeeded...?

I personally really do enjoy the Disney properties for what they are, but once you add in all the chaos of their queue systems, reservations, etc... It's just way too much hassle for what its worth. Disney is not even a consideration anytime we go to Orlando, even though I'd like to check out a few of their newer attractions and such.

I want to show up, queue for what I want, buy an express or a cut-the-line option if I chose, wait for restaurants I want to eat at, not stare at my phone all day long, etc... It's simple, really. Why can parks such as Universal, Europa Park, Efteling and others get this right, but Disney has to over complicate every step of your visit? That's how I feel about it, at least, and I know I am not a minority in that opinion.

I don't think this is limited to theme parks. I was looking at Florida Keys resorts and the prices have jumped through the roof. If we are going to criticize just one segment of the travel industry it is a little disingenuous.

I wonder if there is a page that Disney can steal from Sea World's Discovery Cove. Any entire park that is somewhat "exclusive", at a higher price point, that is all inclusive. I paid quite a bit for my one visit there, but I still look back on it as one of my fondest "theme park" trips. It was basically a "land cruise". Yes, it was a steep ticket but once inside I could turn off my brain, set down my phone, and just enjoy the day. Free booze helped too.

Maybe Disney's 5th park should be some version of a DisneySea...but offered on a similar pricing concept as Discovery Cove. And, maybe the increased profits could allow an opportunity to level the playing field back at the other four parks.

wahoo skipper:

...Sea World's Discovery Cove. Any entire park that is somewhat "exclusive", at a higher price point, that is all inclusive. ...once inside I could turn off my brain, set down my phone, and just enjoy the day.

I am really looking forward to doing Discovery Cove during our Orlando trip in February.

I stayed at Coronado a year ago for $233/night all-in, which seemed pretty reasonable to me during a holiday week. It may have been a Florida or passholder rate, which is a thing again.

We've got not quite two weeks to Disney's next results, and I would expect the division to be flat or maybe slightly down, but not by much. And cruise line numbers (which they often mention but don't break out) I'm positive will be strong as ever. It would make sense for attendance to be down, but as usual the context matters. Room discounting and ticketing deals existed before Covid too, for the purpose of moderating whatever last bit of capacity they had. That's the point of dynamic pricing, after all, to adjust relative to demand.

And Disney is not "complicated" or a "hassle" unless you make it one. (And to Andy, it's a feature, not a bug!) The only thing that I'm routinely using the app for is to pre-order counter service food, and that's something very welcome instead of packing into a line at Columbia Harbor House.

Jeff:

And Disney is not "complicated" or a "hassle" unless you make it one.

The numbers don't lie... Obviously it is for those who don't frequent the park often.

The mobile ordering is the one feature added in the last decade that I absolutely appreciate. It honestly does feel like it has improved the park going experience. (The ability to make reservations at sit-down restaurants is of value to me too).