2015 Ticket Prices

Stick with me.

Just saw this story mentioning that WDW breaking the $100 point ($105 to be exact) is right around the corner.

That reminded me of this old post from June 2007 where I looked at ticket price growth from 1999/2000 to 2007 and then extrapolated another 8 years to 2015 (which seemed like a long time away).

So here we are living in the future. Let's see what happened.

The predictions were as follows:

Walt Disney World - $99
Busch Gardens Virginia - $81
Holiday World - $62
Kings Island - $58
Knoebels - $53
Cedar Point - $51
Kennywood - $50

2015 prices is as follows:

Walt Disney World - Currently at $99. $105 is coming soon based on the article above. They seem to be the only park to outpace their 1999-2007 growth from 2008-2015.

Busch Gardens - $75 online. Not sure if there's a higher listed gate.

Holiday World - $45 regular price per their website.

Kings Island - $40 online, no idea what the posted gate price is this year. Anyone know?

Knoebels - $46 for a RAD including coasters.

Cedar Point - $40 online. Same as KI, no idea what the listed gate is this year.

Kennywood - $42 at the gate.

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Interesting that no one seemed to entirely sustain the growth from the 00's except Disney. Then again, since that post in 2007, a few of these parks found additional revenue streams in FOL access and such. Is that an argument that in-park revenue opportunities really do keep the gate prices down? Who knows?

Further down that 2007 thread RGB challenged the idea of increasing by percentage of growth and instead using actual dollar increases. The list of predictions using that methos read as follows:

Walt Disney World - $91
Busch Gardens - $73
Holiday World - $52
Kings Island - $52
Knoebels - $47
Cedar Point - $47
Kennywood -$44

That list is eerily close to the current pricing with the exception of predicting the insane ticket price growth that WDW is capable of sustaining and the value-driven model that HW uses on the opposite end of the spectrum.

So what does that mean for ticket prices in another 8 years?

Will WDW continue increasing their tickets by more than 50% every 8 years? Will the posted price of a one-day ticket to WDW really be in the $150 range come 2023?

Will higher-priced parks outside of Orlando (like BGW) reach $100?

With the future on the horizon will HW be able to sustain their low-increase model?

Most importantly, what will Michigan's Adventure ticket pricing be at in another 8 years?

I guess we'll have to check back in 2023.

If the attendance is any indication, Disney can keep going higher and at a faster rate. I mean, they're often selling out the Halloween and Christmas separately gated evening events, and I thought that was more of a crowd control measure than a cash grab (and as the former, ineffective, it seems).

Will (or more realistically, when will) Disney go to a tiered model of Extra Magic Hours?

If the higher-end hotels get more EMH, the access would actually become more exclusive...and then there's more happier guests who spend more.

Disney should be slowly creeping into tiered models for everything.

But their actions don't show that in the strictest sense. What they are doing, and where I think there's value, is in the special events and upcharge attractions. Things like the Sparkling Dessert Party at Epcot or the quasi-ropes course tour at Animal Kingdom. They're getting plenty of extra money without (for the most part) disrupting the core experience. Thinking about longer hours or line skipping is, I think, not giving them enough credit.

Lord Gonchar said:

Cedar Point - $40 online. Same as KI, no idea what the listed gate is this year.

I have a sneaking suspicion that these are much lower now than they will be in or near-season, to stimulate revenue in an otherwise dead quarter. Check back in June to see what the "real" gate is.

Jeff said:

But their actions don't show that in the strictest sense. What they are doing, and where I think there's value, is in the special events and upcharge attractions. Things like the Sparkling Dessert Party at Epcot or the quasi-ropes course tour at Animal Kingdom. They're getting plenty of extra money without (for the most part) disrupting the core experience. Thinking about longer hours or line skipping is, I think, not giving them enough credit.

Exactly. We plunked down something close to $300 for dinner for the four of us plus advanced seating at the Candlelight Processional for Christmas this year. Pricey, but a great experience.

Did Cedar Point drop their ticket price? I'm pretty sure it was $60 gate and $45-50 online for 2014. But the price of a platinum pass for sure. I paid the same amount this year and I bought it earlier this year before price went up.

I wonder if Walt Disney World to the other parks is a fair comparison? What Disney's doing in Orlando is so much larger in scale, options, price points and so on than the regional parks.

If I were mathematically inclined, I'd do the math myself, but it might be interesting to compare Cedar Point and Busch and so on to the Disneyland Resort: its two gates and three hotels might be closer in scale to the other parks.

The SeaWorld parks might make sense if you take out Orlando, because they still think they can and should post the same gate as Disney and Universal. Maybe they do that at Tampa, too.

Not sure what my mindset was in 2007 when I chose those parks, but today the list makes sense to me. The idea is to sample a range of parks, not comparable parks. To compare the parks to themselves at different points in time. Follow their ticket price growth over the past 15 years.

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ETA - Here's the Disneyland numbers for you though.

In 2007 based on percentage I would have predicted a 2015 price of $110 (gasp!).

Disneyland's ticket price increased 67% from 1999-2007. That same increase from 2007-2015 would have landed them at about $110.

Based on actual dollars (which turned out to be more accurate) I would have predicted $93.

The current daily ticket price at Disneyland is $96. (actual dollars wins again)

The lesson here, I guess, is that it doesn't matter which park you talk about, Disney is a money-printing machine and they are generally increasing their ticket prices at a faster pace than any of the regional parks (big or small corporate or family owned) are able to.

I think the Cedar Point ticket prices are just early bird specials. I'm pretty sure they will go up once the season starts. I just went to their website and it said lowest price of the year.

Yeah, it's all based on gate price anyway.

Keep in mind too that two of the parks (five,really) are 365 parks, the rest are seasonal. Longer operating seasons make even more money, but then you have the increased operating expense as well, so that may be a wash.

It's always been interesting to me (and we've touched on this before) that regional parks, even with their lower gate prices, seem to offer much more hardware for the guest than Disney does. I know and understand theme, scenery, storytelling, and experience goes a long way, but you got your Studios park with what? Three? Four E-tickets? And AK with not many more. And for that you might pay 100+ dollars.

Lord Gonchar said:

Most importantly, what will Michigan's Adventure ticket pricing be at in another 8 years?

I guess we'll have to check back in 2023.

Unfortunately, it won't even matter. Regardless of MiA's ticket price, Timber-Rider will still be here bitching about how it is too much and it is unfair.

And MiA still won't be getting a shiny, brand new coaster.

I never realized how unfair it is that Animal Kingdom gets an Avatar Land and MiA doesn't even get a new coaster...

I keep seeing newspaper stories about Magic Kingdom exceeding $100, as speculation because ticket prices go up almost every year anyway, but I'll hold off until it happens for real. Despite the predictable "consumer backlash" in the press, I still think it's a pretty good deal for a day of entertainment. I've paid about that much for the last two Broadway touring shows I've seen.

I remember when I said that people would stop going to Disney when admission rose over $50. That wasn't very long ago. I was wrong, and times have really changed.

It looks like the cost of a Cedar Point 1 day ticket is $62, according to this BOGO sale.

https://www.cedarpoint.com/?mobile=0&promoCode=PresidentFBPost